Hearthpwn

An news? Anyone received anything?

This seems like something really tricky to try to figure out. Figuring out which accounts are effected and deciding how to credit them will undoubtedly be a huge headache. They should save themselves the trouble and credit all accounts with 1600 dust.

Just to be clear, my intentions are totally honorable. I'm just trying to save Blizzard a lot of time and effort. This is not at all about me wanting a free legendary. No greed here, none at all, no sirree...

What if I had issues with the pity timer back in tgt?

WIll I receive anything?

Edit: I'm no longer the only person I have ever met to break the timer :)

Before UnGoro I went weeks with no legends spending all my gold on packs. I got 74 packs Of UnGoro and I only got 1 legendary? Whilst others who only had 50 got 4-5? We should all have the same % chance. When people complained of the low rates and duplicates, HS devs said that the drops are fine they're no bugs.............. well well well. I do hope this gets fixed before the new expansion.

You do have the same chance as anyone else. You're just unlucky bud. 

I opened 43 packs before I got a legendary...

What a pity..

I gave in and opened 5 packs, thankfully no legendaries, maybe ill get freebies lol

1. I've been feeling like my packs are all 4 common 1 rare. 

2. Dollars to donuts I wasn't effected and it's just bad RNG. 

Does anybody know, if the probability per pack for a legendary card rises with each opened pack, that did not have a legendary in it?
e.g. is the probability-curve more like
A: pack 1: 1.1%, pack 2: 1.1% ... pack 39: 1.1%, pack 40: 100% or
B: pack 1: 1.1%, pack 2: 1,2%, pack 3: 1,4%, ... pack 39: 90%, pack 40: 100%?

It's more like A, but more complicated than that, because the pity timer only kicks in when you have not opened any legendary in the last 39 packs. Which only happens around 11.6% of the time. So your drop rate naturally grows when you open more packs, reaching around 90% when you open 39 packs, even without pity timer. Pity timer simply eliminate those unlucky 10%, making their 40th pack 100%, but most of us are not affected at all.

(Btw 1.1% drop rate is per card, per pack is 5.37%)

I know that, if you roll the dice on pack 1 (last pack was legendary or you never opened a pack of that set) and get no legendary, the chance over all packs to get a legendary in the next pack goes up. It is statistically unlikely (< 0.1%) to roll a 10-sided die 1.000.000 times and not get a 10, but the probability per roll is still 10%.
So, is it verified that the probabilty per pack increases? Or is it just the normal statistical increase because of openend packs?
Or better asked: Is the probability for a legendary per pack conditional or not?

@extrAme: and yeah, I took the wrong percentage for legendary per pack. but that doesn't matter for the question ^^

@richard1234568791011: If HS is fair and correct on probabilities, this is wrong because you can't just add probabilities together. But, it could be right... But then the pity timer would not be needed. So it is unlikely, at least.

According to this reddit thread, the probability noticeably increases after around 30 packs, little bit before then maybe. So pity timer guarantees a Legendary by 40 packs, but only starts properly increasing your chances after say, 25-30 packs.

So I guess B is right? I'm not very good with statistics, so someone should probably confirm, but that's my understanding, anyway.

Yeah in short I don't think the drop rate increases, or else it wouldn't be called a "timer". Also this will severely mess up all the data we collected to estimate the leg drop rate (because it fluctuate depends on your situation)

Also I'm pretty sure @richard1234568791011 is wrong about multiplying the drop rate, that doesn't make any sense.

Cool

Dont bother, these forums are full salty ftp’ers that are rotten by jealousy and will downvote anything they wish they could have/do.

well, you should at least have gotten an epic

Once again Hearthpwn users come together to identify a problem and make blizzard accountable! Well done to everyone who was brave enough to post on the forums about it even when some of us (me included) doubted the issue!