We Learn Nothing New About Card Pack Drop Rates
A new set of rules in China that became active on May 1st requires that games with "loot boxes" publish their odds publicly as to let consumers know what they're getting into. There was a lot of hype surrounding this announcement of these rules because we'd finally learn the deep dark secrets of Hearthstone's card packs, but that's not what happened.
A blog on the Hearthstone China website came out and had this to say about card packs.
- You'll get at least 1 rare, or better, in each pack.
- An epic will be received, on average, in 1 of every 5 packs.
- Legendaries, on average, will be received in 1 of every 20 packs.
- As players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards with higher quality increases.
TADA! We learned nothing new. Over the past few years, the community itself has done a better job at figuring out the various card drop rates, and even figured out the pity timer. You should check out the card pack statistics page on the Hearthstone Wiki.
Blog Post Translation
Google Translate to the rescue! You should be able to get the gist of it.
Interestingly, the post has been backdated April 2nd. We're assuming this is because they didn't want it to be on the front of their blog and thus widespread knowledge to more casual fans. Fun.
Quote from BlizzardAccording to the relevant national laws and regulations, "slag legend" is now the probability of taking cards to publish, as follows:
Note: "slag legend" card package a total of five cards, including four different quality.
Rare cards
Each slag card package, at least to get a rare or higher quality card.
Epic card
An average of 5 slag card card package, you can get an epic quality card.
Legend card
An average of 20 slag card card package, you can get a legendary quality card.
In addition, it should be noted that: with the number of cards to increase the number of packages, players actually get high-quality card card probability will also increase.
ive tracked my packs and i get 1 legend in about 25 packs. You know it has to be 20 packs of the same type? every type of pack has its own pity timer. So if you just started playing and you buy every type of pack once a day, it can take 160 packs before you get 4 legendaries in a row
Most people don't seem to realize the pity timer isn't absolute though
(its just really really damn hard to exceed it)
Pity timer isn't absolute.
Or if it is; then it hasn't always been.
62 un goro packs so far -> 1 legendary, odds god hates me
I want my slag card package, NOW!!!!!
Pathetic, Blizzard. Just man up and publish your rates.
A "1 in 20" rate for Legendaries means a 5% chance over 5 cards, which means the rate is ~1.013% chance per card.
This is ridiculously small for a game that only gives 5 card per pack.
If only I could like this more than once!
I'd upvote you but the horrible thing about you using this visual metaphor is my stupid brain keeps going:
"Boy that's a terrible card! If you and your opponent both get your health reduced to zero when that's on the board, you LOSE instead of it being a DRAW because it says so on the text!"
Why can't I just have been born with a sense of humor instead of this crippling DisguisedToast syndrome that makes me want to find non-obvious interactions! Curses!
Draws are losses in arena, so it's mostly accurate.
In my experience, epics are more like a 1/10 pack ratio, and Legendary cards are 1/40. Would Blizzard really do that? Just go to a foreign country and lie?
For me, epics are 1/5 and legendaries are 1/16, so pretty consistent with Blizzard numbers...
And I track them since GvG on a spreadsheet, to avoid biais.
Your experience is not statistically relevant.
Yep, epics are definitely not 1/5 ,no way.
77 ungoro packs and 2 legendaries :(