We Learn Nothing New About Card Pack Drop Rates
A new set of rules in China that became active on May 1st requires that games with "loot boxes" publish their odds publicly as to let consumers know what they're getting into. There was a lot of hype surrounding this announcement of these rules because we'd finally learn the deep dark secrets of Hearthstone's card packs, but that's not what happened.
A blog on the Hearthstone China website came out and had this to say about card packs.
- You'll get at least 1 rare, or better, in each pack.
- An epic will be received, on average, in 1 of every 5 packs.
- Legendaries, on average, will be received in 1 of every 20 packs.
- As players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards with higher quality increases.
TADA! We learned nothing new. Over the past few years, the community itself has done a better job at figuring out the various card drop rates, and even figured out the pity timer. You should check out the card pack statistics page on the Hearthstone Wiki.
Blog Post Translation
Google Translate to the rescue! You should be able to get the gist of it.
Interestingly, the post has been backdated April 2nd. We're assuming this is because they didn't want it to be on the front of their blog and thus widespread knowledge to more casual fans. Fun.
Quote from BlizzardAccording to the relevant national laws and regulations, "slag legend" is now the probability of taking cards to publish, as follows:
Note: "slag legend" card package a total of five cards, including four different quality.
Rare cards
Each slag card package, at least to get a rare or higher quality card.
Epic card
An average of 5 slag card card package, you can get an epic quality card.
Legend card
An average of 20 slag card card package, you can get a legendary quality card.
In addition, it should be noted that: with the number of cards to increase the number of packages, players actually get high-quality card card probability will also increase.
Not 1 in 20 cards, 1 in 20 packs. So the average drop rate is 1 / 100 cards or 1%.
These translations are pretty accurate.. Id say most legends in ungoro are "slag" ;) ... and 1 legend per 20 packs? (okay blizz)
'1 legendary per 20 packs on average'
Sure Blizzard. Sure.
Yeah, so just because kasper is lucky, everyone else who got the short end of the stick should just shup up and enjoy the pity timer, right?
You know, if I had your mentality I would wish you 1 legendary / 40 packs from now on, but I'd rather wish Blizzard to change the system. Greedy Blizzard or not, Hearthstone is extremely expensive, and no wonder people feel cheated when they pay the price of an AAA game for 100 packs, and then get 2 Lakkari Sacrifices.
The statistic study (not made by blizzard which is on wiki) collected the data from 27868 packs. And the result is exactly what was official presented today. What a surprise, right?
I see that the conspiracy theories how the Blizzard hack your life and profit on getting you less legendaries and more Pirate warriors in ranked, but I still wonder how hard is for some people to see the difference between "average in 20 packs" and "guarantee in 20 packs".
btw I got like 1 leg in 15-16 packs based on ~700 packs from the begging. So obviously somebody had to had like 1 in 30, maybe 1/50... it doesn't mean that the average isn't still 1/20. Sorry, but that's it. Not everybody can win in the roulette. As much pack you open, you should be more to close to the average, simple.
Obviously I did not question the AVERAGE droprates, neither have I upvoted any of those comments.
But when people are already pissed off thanks to their unluck, you come here, and spam how lucky you got with your droprates. Yes, you are LUCKY, 5 legendaries from ~60 packs is ridiculously fortunate (you just had to highlight the golden one too), and next time before bragging about it, ask yourself: would have I made the same comment if I opened only 1 legendary?
Yes, it's possible to open only one legendary from your first 79 packs, and duplicates are really annoying and feel unfair. No one said that they changed the droprate, but with only expansions coming out (with this one in particular having even more legendaries), the game is really expensive.
yeah 70 packs: 2 legendaries, fock ya blizzard
70 packs is not even close to a large enough sample size to determine the average drop rate.
i'll not buying more packs for FTP game, if you out of brains, good luck
at least 3 legendaries i must have, and after that i got near 20 packs for gold - no legendary
I thought the law required they disclose the actual statistics of the drop rates, not the averages.
At least this gives us confirmation that the pity timer is real.
Does this mean, if i buy 10 times one pack, i likely will get less good cards, that i get when in buy 10 packs ot once ?
If you don't open legendary in 20 packs, your chances are higher next. But nothing about an exact algorithm.
No, it does not mean that.
yeah... nothing new...
What about the golden cards?
I'm not surprised. They gave us the least amount of information possible while staying within the new law. It also seems like they read it off the Hearthstone Wiki page for card rarity as well.
Legendaries, on average, will be received in 1 of every 20 packs.
What? Where? I have legendaries in 1 of every 40 packs.