Americas Last Call 2016 Decklists
The final last call event for this year's Hearthstone Championship Tour will be taking place in the Americas region this Saturday! Below you can find their decklists... WAIT, WHAT IS THIS SORCERY?!? Someone is actually bringing a Priest deck!!
- You can watch live on Twitch.tv/PlayHearthstone starting on Saturday at 09:00 PT (12:00 ET, 16:00 GMT)
- The winner of the event gets the final ticket to BlizzCon!
Deck Observations
- Priest! We swear on Vol'jin Pyre, it's really happening.
- A record number of mages for a recent HCT event with Tempo (6) taking the lead over Freeze (1).
Decks
View all 40 decks from the eight participants below.
noblord
Nostam
Chessdude
Bbgungun
Neobility
SilentStorm
Muzzy
His line up targets control Warrior. There's no reason to bring Freeze Mage.
I cant evaluate Paladin deck (looks unusual, would like to hear True Paladin players opinuon). But Priest, come on! : 2 Entombs + 2 Mind Controls, really? Its obviously not for ladder and barely for this tournament. Wish Fr0zen good luck for picking unusual deck!
There's a high change Fr0zen will make it to the final match as his whole line up destroy control Warrior (all players in his bracket side bring CW). These decks seem unusual because of that.
Ok this deck counter CW. But for most players:
3 out of 5 decks (60%) are tempo-midrange (Shaman, Hunt, Mage) also Maly/Yogg Druid is not the best opponent.
So if you counter Control and ban 1 midrange - you may have 50/50.
But if you counter Mindrange and ban 1 control - you may have 75/25, no?
The thing is it's almost impossible to counter Mid Shaman and Druid, these decks can cheese out wins by sheer nut draw, even the worst match ups for those decks come at 40-60 . By bringing a whole line up countering CW (let's say every of his decks has 80-20 chance vs CW), he's always has the edge over anyone has CW in their line ups.
Some math:
In BO7 conquest, you play max. 7 games. Since the opponent knows CW is their weakpoint in the line up, they may put CW as their last deck to play.
Assume all greedy decks from Frozen has 30-70 chance vs any midrange & combo deck in general, the probability he loses all first 3 games (before playing vs CW) is 0.7^3=34.3%. Then, since every of his deck beat CW by 80-20, the chance he reverse sweep is 0.8^4=40.9%. -> He has 0.343*0.409=14.03% winning this way.
If he goes 1win-3loss before playing vs CW, which has probability of 0.7^3*0.3*4C1*3/4=30.87%, the chance he wins by beating CW with the remaining 3 decks would be 0.8^3=51.2%. -> He has 0.3087*0.512=15.80% winning this way.
Similarly, if he goes 2-3, which is 0.7^3*0.3^2*5C2*6/10=18.52 chance, he has 0.8^2=64% chance to win the remaining 2 games vs CW. -> 0.1852*0.64=11.85% chance to win this way.
If he goes 3-3, which is 12.35%, he has 80% chance to win vs CW in last game. -> 9.88% chance to win this way.
In case he win the match at 4-2 (not playing vs CW yet) -> 5.95% winning this way.
Total is at least 57.52% he wins the game (not yet including he wins at higher score, i.e. 4-1 or 4-0) vs anyone who plays CW in the line up. (it's not as high as I thought after I've done the math, but still)
P/s: all calculation is based all the assumed match-up win-rate, things would change drastically if the win-rate of the match-up changes. And I'm not sure where's your 50/50 and 75/25 comes from?
I hope the best for Fr0zen to win the last seat for Blizzcon
Honorable mention for his courage sending all 5 control decks: from Paladin/Priest/Warrior to Hunter/Warlock.
That NO Shaman lineup! Plus Priest and Pally.
All those Mage is not surprising. There are several variants to Tempo being played successfully right now. even the standard control Warrior/Dragon Warrior has taken a hit and we are seeing more diverse Warrior decks. Should be interesting to watch.
Fr0zen certainly brought something different to this tournament. Paladin and priest, also NO SHAMAN. Well played indeed.
We had 9 classes in this game?! I thought we only had 7...
I thought we only had two
Shaman, Hunter, Warrior, Tempo Mage, Druid and Zoolock.
I only count six classes.