Hello folks, I made this calculation and posted it on another thread (here: Activision-Blizzard has gone too far with the Mega Bundle), but it's buried under 14 pages of toxic posting and general misinformation. I think it's an useful tool for those who want to buy a bundle or two, and get an idea of the returned value.
Please don't take it as set in stone as a lot of details regarding pack opening randomness are known only to blizzard itself and the concept of pity timer itself is still somehow aleatory. Below an extract of my original comment (containing the "how to read this" info) and conclusions. Please feel free to correct me or the calculation, this could and wants to be useful to anyone.
"This is a mathematical analysis based on data from Blizzard itself and data on Hearthstone wiki, such as average dust value per pack (102.71) and legendary pity timer set at 40. Keeping in mind that for a new expansion the pity timer is set to an initial value of 10.
This analysis keeps the DUST on DOLLARS as a primary unit of measure, since it's the only one that could be applied in this case. Sentimental value for a Hero pic or a card back cannot be quantified and I believe that if someone WANTS that hero, he'll get it anyway.
I also used a theoretical NON GOLD legendary card value as a unit for the pity timer, since it's impossible to calculate the chances of getting a golden legendary, and it's only a plus when it happens.
Please see the attached image, I'm willing to share the google spreadsheet file to anyone.
TL:DR: Blizzard is going far yes...in giving you a great offer. Buying 130 cards from them from these bundles you're getting not only a hero, but a dust/$ value of 127.34 dust per dollar VS a 68.70 dust per dollar value if you buy an (1) individual pack."
Edit 07/16/2018: Removed the dust gain for the theoretically unpacked legendaries. As stated by MaximGorkij the dust obtained from those cards is included in the average dust value per pack. Thanks for the tip my friend!
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Battle tag: Zeedrome#1317
region: na
trade only: yes, you go first, i can show proof of quest
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Lels, nothing to discuss
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One word: homepage
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Just a dumb article. Nothing here. Just OP wild opinion.
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Show me the link if there is already, thanks.
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Netdecking is healthy.
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Battletag: Zeedromedone
Region: NA
Trade only?: Yes, you go first, I can show proof of quest
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Hall of Faming a non-classic/basic card.. How dumb can you get..
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Just a shitty player that don't regret his stupidity..
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I pre-ordered all expansions since WotG. But not for now, not that i don't like the Boomsday but i have save enough gold(11k) and dust(18k). I think Boomsday will freshen the meta and i'm happy that it's the expansion with the highest pre-ordered(39% of players, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW6lRwgDpaQ&t=449s). But correct me if if there are other statistics.