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    posted a message on Rogue Legendary & Common Card Reveal - Tess Greymane & Blink Fox

    A 6/6 is worth about 5 mana for Standard power level. So we need to get 3 mana worth out of the battlecry. Roughly, we can assume that we'll get about 2/3 value out of cards replayed by the ability, since minions will lack battlecry and synergy, and randomly targeted spells lose value. So in order to break even, we should aim to play 5 mana worth of other class cards.

    Now, obviously, we're not trying to break even if we're playing Tess. The whole reason to play her in constructed is to abuse as much free mana as we can. The issue I see is that cards that generate additional cards tend to be costed higher, so the free mana of Tess recasting cards is partially offset by the mana spent generating cards from another class. Generated cards are also going to be inconsistent in terms of quality and utility. So on a card for card basis, Tess seems like she will generate a lot less free value than Yogg did, since Yogg was powered by spells you wanted to play anyway, which could fit your gameplan and could be efficiently costed.

    The play pattern is also different than Yogg, because Yogg essentially functioned as an AoE spell once you powered it up enough. Tess will only work that way if you already generated an AoE, and that's a lot harder to set up.

     

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on New Card Reveal - Countess Ashmore

    It's Rita Repulsa!

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on New Warrior Card Reveal - Town Crier

    Drawing a rush minion is likely part of what makes this card safe to print. The decks that want cantrips most are usually combo and control, and those archetypes value spells, defense, and removal. Rush minions are the opposite of what those decks want.

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on New Warrior Card Reveal - Town Crier

    Remember when Novice Engineer was a 2 mana 1/2 draw a card and it was so overpowered it was in every deck and had to be nerfed? Just a historical point of reference for this 1 mana 1/2 draw a specific card.

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on The Year of the Raven is Coming to Hearthstone - Ice Block, Molten Giant, Coldlight Oracle to be Hall of Famed

    The Molten buff makes me think they intend to address Naga Sea Witch, at least by responding to balance concerns in the announcement stream. Will be interesting to see if they talk about it/what they say.

    Coldlight rotation is surprising, but makes sense. Because it is neutral and its effect is so large and efficient, it probably restricts design space for any standard cards that interact with hand size, battlecries, or symmetrical effects.

    The spoiled expansion art makes me think we'll be seeing Druid move away from beasts and back towards trees, and giving the opponent cards is a subtheme of foresty Druid cards. So maybe that is part of the reason for rotating Coldlight now?

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on The Rogue Quest, The Caverns Below, is OP. Nerf it already.

    Rule number one of TCG balance: every good deck is hated.

    Too much midrange? Curvestone. Too much aggro? Brainless face decks. Too much control? Boring fatigue decks. Too much combo? Nerf the unfair decks!

    If you get rid of every deck that people hate, you end up with literally nothing. I've been playing Hearthstone since beta and there has literally been no period of time during which people didn't hate the top deck in the game. Ever. Every single top competitive deck has been hated and people have demanded that it be nerfed. Does that say more about the game or the players?

    Posted in: Card Discussion
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    posted a message on Quest math

    The thing is you'd build your deck a lot differently if you could guarantee playing Jaraxxus on curve every game. Having the Quest guaranteed in your opening hand means you don't need to build your deck for the worst case scenario of surviving until you draw your win condition. You get your win condition as soon as you want.

    Posted in: Warrior
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    posted a message on Quest math

    IMO, the Warrior quest is one that you can feasibly sprint to finish without killing your deck quality, and the payoff is so powerful, it's worth it to do so. Once you start hitting the Rag hero power once a turn, you're going to win fast.

    Assuming you have the cards, you'll have enough mana to have played 7 taunts by around turn 8. Most games should ideally go something like this:

    1. Play Quest
    2. Play 1 taunt
    3. Play 1 taunt
    4. Play 1 taunt
    5. Play 1 taunt
    6. Play 1 taunt
    7. Play 2 taunts
    8. Play 1 taunt + Sulfuras

    Some games might be a turn slower or faster, but it's a ballpark idea of the curve we can feasibly aim for. That means you've drawn 10 or 11 cards (8+3 or 8+2 since you're missing a card from your opening hand). We can use this to help figure out the optimal number of taunt minions using a hypergeometric calculator. Population (i.e. deck) size 30, sample size (i.e. cards we see) 11, successes in sample (i.e. what we need to complete the Quest) 7, then we play with the successes in population and see our percent chance of success.

    It turns out that if you run 18 taunt minions, the percent chance of success P(X >= 7) is just over 50%, and it goes up dramatically with each additional card we see, so we have a 96% chance of completing the Quest by the time we're halfway through the deck. Running Stonehill Defender helps with this because it counts as drawing an extra taunt. If you cut even 1 taunt down to 17 taunt minions, your chance of completing the Quest even by turn 10 on the draw (10 cards + 4 opening hand - 1 for the quest = 13 sample size) goes down to 75%! That's a big sacrifice in consistency so whatever we're cutting the 18th taunt for had better be giving us a boost in power. You still have better than 90% chance of completing the Quest by halfway through your deck, so there's an argument for running a cheap utility cycle card like Slam or a multiple-draw card like Acolyte of Pain instead of the 18th taunt minion, so you see more cards in the same turns. Fewer than 17 taunts will end up frustratingly inconsistent.

    On the other side, there are diminishing returns for more than 18 taunts, because unless the extra taunt cards are cheap, you won't have time to play them before you draw extra taunts anyway. Cheap taunts also tend to be relatively worse, because taunt prefers high stats. Maybe it turns out that there's an optimal build with 19 or even 20 taunts, but more than that is counterproductive.

    Posted in: Warrior
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    posted a message on The Final Un'Goro Card Reveal - Remaining Cards Revealed!

    Will the Deck Builder be updated with a filter for post-rotation Standard?

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on New Card Revealed: Spiritsinger Umbra

    Better combos, yes. Funnier combos? Come on dude, it's Ball of Spiders!!!

    Posted in: News
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