Hearthpwn

If we are talking ladder then Rogue is definitely the answer to your question. The problem with Rogue is there is no way to build it right now that makes it work in more than half of its match-ups. You can build a Rogue deck to be favorable against any other specific deck, which is why it is still a somewhat viable tournament option, but good luck building a deck that can ladder consistently. Nobody has figured it out yet and to be honest I don't think there is some hidden undiscovered archetype that is going to work.

I think people are greatly overestimating its value. Yes, it has the ability to blow games wide open, but it can also be a total dud tempo loss. In the current meta things are relatively fast, and often you can't afford to do nothing on Turn 2. It's a great card for weaker players because it gives them a chance in match-ups they previously had no chance in, but its lack of consistency makes it pretty bad in a serious constructed deck, both for ladder and tournaments. Most serious players have already started to cut it (see http://bmkgaming.com/building-better-robot-mech-mage-mech-shaman-decks-hearthstone/ for example) and I would be absolutely shocked if it saw a nerf.

You know that "cancer" is not a synonym for "strong" or "popular" right?

I bet some day we get an expansion full of dragon synergy at which point you will really wish you still had him. Imagine a card that cost 5 and said "Put a random dragon in your hand. That dragon costs 5 less to play."Now you have a late game Maly turn with 5 extra mana to demolish people with.

Quote from jfmario »

Now that I see this applied to 1 copy of a card I am more confident this is wrong. When you haven't seen your one copy of a card and you have 2 cards in deck, the chance that that card is on top is exactly 50%.

 

Edit:  I think I see what I wasn't getting. My bad. These are the numbers from the beginning of the game. 97% chance that you'll draw it by draw 26, is that it? I was thinking of it resetting everytime if you haven't drawn it yet - but this table appears to just be the outlook as of the beginning of a game. 

Yes as I stated up front this is your chance to draw a card by a certain point in the game, not the chance to draw a card on any specific draw. You are 100% correct in that if you are looking for one card and have 2 cards left in your deck you have a 50% chance to get it. This is more useful for conversations around deck building (like the Wild Growth example I provided)

Here is a Blizzard employee confirming the discarded cards are set aside and cannot be drawn again in the mulligan phase

As requested here is the table for a card with only 1 copy in your deck. Sometime when I'm bored I am will do the table for chance to draw a 2-part combo like FoN + Savage Roar

Quote from jfmario »

I like what you have here, this needs to exist. Some cards have 1 copy, so I'd like to see a version that covers both if 1 copy exists and if 2 copies exist and have it all in one place. I'll have to sit down with my python idle and do some math at some point and post it up sometime.

This is a good table it's helpful to see the numbers. My gut reaction, without doing any calculation, is that your mulligan numbers are wrong - for the reason you allude to in your final paragraph. You can redraw the cards your threw away in the mulligan phase. Is that being factored in appropriately? I know this to be a possibility because I just threw away a Molten Giant in Arena (my only one) and took it back in the mulligan phase.

Actually I remember Ben Brode confirming somewhere that in constructed at least you cannot get back the cards you mulligan. If someone has evidence otherwise I am happy to fix this but I specifically remember him saying that in an interview

Quote from Mister_Smith »

I'm really bad at stuff like this so i will leave potential errors in the math for other guys to find but if i read that correctly it looks like your table is saying you've got 28 cards left after the initial draw... buuut that doesn't make sense?

What it is saying is that 28 of the 30 cards you can draw on your first draw and not the card you are looking for. Until the reset after the mulligan phase it is just a "simple" hypergeometric, you can check the math here

I continually seem to be correcting people in threads about the chances to draw a certain card by X point in the game. This isn't as simple of a calculation as most people seem to think it is. From my understanding of how it works, here is the table that outlines your chances to draw at least one of two copies of a certain card in your deck, assuming you go first (start with 3 cards) and mulligan aggressively for it (throw everything else back).

It is a hypergeometric distribution complicated by the fact that the deck "resets" after the mulligan phase. In this model, you have a 41.3% chance of starting with the card you want by the time you play your first turn. Your chance of having a Wild Growth by turn 2 is 45.8%.

The same numbers for going second are 46.9% and 50.1% respectively. 

Quote from Banquetto »

Quote from Semioteric »

Having said that the Shadow Madness Recombobulator combo is broken and should be fixed.

What does that combo do? Give you permanent ownership of the card because the recombobulated minion is now no longer the minion that you stole temporary control of?

Ya exactly. I feel really strongly that this is basically an exploit and it shouldn't work this way. Hopefully the dev team agrees and fixes it.

Ramp Druid still works pretty much as well as it always has. Dr. Boom is freaking awesome in Ramp Druid (with the combo obviously, you are insane not to run the combo).

Miracle was the hard counter. People whined endlessly about it and now that it is gone Priest rises. You reap what you sew. 

Having said that the Shadow MadnessRecombobulator combo is broken and should be fixed.

Quote from lynxbird »

On first tournament after GvG, "Kinguin for charity" every pro player had a paladin deck.

After all cry about bolvar, and that we can delete paladin from game, he is stronger than ever!! In last game today paladin made 3-0.

Also lots of cards considered bad by masses, like shieldmaiden, was standard in decks.

This once again show how guys from Blizzard know what they are doing.

 

Ummm Tides wasn't playing Bolvar in the deck that went 3-0 ...

Quote from Poghy »

I think that Clockwork Gnome might be a really good addition to the handlock arsenal. When you dont have the coin, and want to go for a T4 giant, you can stil play this and it wont screw up your hand size. Combined with Mortal Coil, you can kill an early Northshire Cleric, Mechwarper, or once-buffed Undertaker and still have the T4 giant. The spare part can also be useful, especially if its taunt or stealth.

I still think Ogre on 3 is better than Clockwork on 1 with coin.