Hearthpwn

Hey everyone!

I decided to make this thread because I recently saw a lot of posts of people claiming that Hearthstone's MM is rigged and if you go over 50% win rate it "cheats" you by queueing you against your counters, give you bad cards in the mulligan or draw, etc.

Of course, like everyone else, I had my highs and lows (with win/lose streaks going on two digits range at times), but I never felt that the system is rigged or that I'm cheated in any way, and by tracking my win rates at the end of each month I was able to notice two things: that each and every month I got over 50% win rate and that the win rate was pretty consistent at the end of each month.

But enough with the "feeling"; I should better get to the facts and give you the cold numbers. But, before that, I should probably give some details about my play style to better get the context: I play at most six games per day, which take an hour at most (so I usually average less than 180 games per month), with the best possible deck that matches my daily quest (so that means that I don't play a deck enough to really master it and that I don't always play tier 1 decks because not all classes have them). I'm also a decent player (reaching legend in most months and having a couple of top legend rankings), but I'm definitely nowhere close to calling myself an expert, a hardcore, or a pro player.

And now the numbers (print screens to prove them will be provided at the end of the post):

December 2017: 61% win rate (83-52)
January 2018: 68% win rate (57-27)
February 2018: 68% win rate (61-29)
March 2018: 62% win rate (92-56)
April 2018: 58% win rate (104-76)
May 2018: 57% win rate (79-59)
June 2018: 67% win rate (85-41)

--- that was my best month ever, ending the month in top 5 legend and holding for a while even the #1 legend, at which point I had a hard time finding new challenges in the game so took a half-year break ---

January 2019: 66% win rate (129-65)
February 2019: 57% win rate (112-85)
March 2019: 61% win rate (114-72)
April 2019: 61% win rate (81-51)
May 2019: 57% win rate (79-59)
June 2019: 74% win rate (34-12)
July 2019: 67% (8-4)
August 2019: 57% (134-100)
September 2019: 61% (17-11)
October 2019: 57% (79-59)
November 2019: 57% (75-57)
December 2019: 57% (75-57)
January 2020: 57% (35-26)
February 2020: 58% (50-36)
March 2020: 61% (35-22)
April 2020: 57% (103-77)

The average (excluding the two months with less than 50 games) was 60.1%; out of the 21 tracked months only four months (two which were during the old system where we were all resetted back to rank 18, so first few games were almost auto wins and two during which I had a lot of luck and managed to end the month in top 10 legend) had a variation of more than 3% from my average 60% win rate, while during the rest of 17 out of 21 I consistently had between 57% and 63% win rate. And, btw, this month I'm also at 58% win rate far now.

I think that, while it can still somehow be seen as anecdotical evidence since they're just my personal games, there is enough evidence to see that there is a pattern that says that no, the game is not forcing everyone at 50% win rate, but it just aims too point everyone toward that value via MMR, but, ultimately, everyone's win rate is a personal constant dependent of their skill compared with the skill of the average player - a better player will have higher than 50% win rate (the better the player, the better the win rate) and a bad player will have lower than 50% win rate (the worse the player, the lower the win rate) - the MMR is simply trying to limit those variations so we don't end up having people with 80% and people with 20% win rates.

So, seriously, if you think Blizzard is artificially capping your win rate at 50% win rate and it simply doesn't let you break over it, how you explain the fact that in 23 tracked months, spawning over three years and a lot of various expansions and metas my win rate never fall bellow 57% (and that while still being a rather regular/casual player playing at most one hour a day and switching decks/classes depending on whatever daily quest I get)?

And, as I promised, here are all the referenced screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/xNIoA1u

I further detailed my playstyle and win rates depending on deck variation in this answer: https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/242896-hearthstones-mm-is-not-rigged-and-is-not-keeping?comment=16