Hearthpwn

Quote from SlydE >>

game length can be almost as important as winrate. For climbing, sacrificing a couple of % in winrate can be worth it if the games are twice as fast.

Quote from inhigo >>

If you were to keep simulating long enough, all people would be playing +50% winrate decks, which is stupid.

Quote from MrShmoove >>

 

Quote from SMcB >>

Vicious Syndicate Data Reaper #85 is out.

Big Priest from 2.63% to 2.82%. I predicted a small increase, and it happened.

Combo Priest from 6.1% to 7.63%. I predicted a medium increase, and it happened.

Control Priest from 4.34% to 3.94%. I predicted a large increase and got a small decrease instead.

Spiteful Priest from 7.54% to 7.28%. I predicted a large decrease and got a small decrease instead.

Overall Priest population increased, as predicted.

Dude Paladin from 8.49% to 8.55%. I predicted a medium increase and got a very small increase (basically no change) instead.

Murlock Paladin from 8.05% to 8.00%. I predicted a large decrease and got a very small decrease (basically no change) instead.

Overall Paladin population remained nearly constant, as predicted.

Control Warlock from 16.06% to 15.75%. I predicted a medium decrease and got a very small decrease instead.

Zoo Warlock from 2.99% to 2.98%. I predicted a large decrease and got the tiniest possible decrease (basically no change) instead.

Secret Mage from 10.99% to 11.04%. I predicted a large decrease and got a tiny increase (basically no change) instead.

Big Mage from 2.97% to 3.19%. I predicted no change and got a small increase reasonably consistent with that prediction.

Spell Hunter from 4.14% to 4.41%. I predicted a large decrease and got a small increase instead.

——————————————————

If we account for players with losing winrates being less likely to want to craft new archetypes this late before a new expansion is released, the two main predictions I got wrong were Control Priest and Spell Hunter.

I still contend that Control Priest is the meta breaker for the current meta and should be played much more than it currently is, but it hasn't gotten the coverage it deserves in commentary from sites like Vicious Syndicate and Tempo Storm.

I can't understand why people are going to Spell Hunter instead of away from it.

 

 I see now about 50/50 control and spiteful priest and VERY rarely see a Big Priest.   Spiteful still has the same problems it's always had.  If you don't draw Dr 6 or Duskbreakers or the dragons to pop them the deck doesn't work.  I believe that's why Control priest has gained in popularity to match it now. 

I don't get the attraction to Spell Huntard either.  It's really not that good.  Although I did have two games in a row that I played against them the other day where they coined out barnes on 3 to get y'shaarj.  Maybe it's because of those cheesy fast wins that people like it?

First off, Odd Warrior isn't actually going to be a thing, unless we see an OP reveal. Genn Graymane is much better than Baku; both give your hero power the same Mana efficiency, and Genn's stats are much better.

Second, this card is VERY good in Even Warrior. Basically, Rotface becomes an Antonidas now; if you can't kill it the turn after they play it, you lose.

Vicious Syndicate Data Reaper #85 is out.

Big Priest from 2.63% to 2.82%. I predicted a small increase, and it happened.

Combo Priest from 6.1% to 7.63%. I predicted a medium increase, and it happened.

Control Priest from 4.34% to 3.94%. I predicted a large increase and got a small decrease instead.

Spiteful Priest from 7.54% to 7.28%. I predicted a large decrease and got a small decrease instead.

Overall Priest population increased, as predicted.

Dude Paladin from 8.49% to 8.55%. I predicted a medium increase and got a very small increase (basically no change) instead.

Murlock Paladin from 8.05% to 8.00%. I predicted a large decrease and got a very small decrease (basically no change) instead.

Overall Paladin population remained nearly constant, as predicted.

Control Warlock from 16.06% to 15.75%. I predicted a medium decrease and got a very small decrease instead.

Zoo Warlock from 2.99% to 2.98%. I predicted a large decrease and got the tiniest possible decrease (basically no change) instead.

Secret Mage from 10.99% to 11.04%. I predicted a large decrease and got a tiny increase (basically no change) instead.

Big Mage from 2.97% to 3.19%. I predicted no change and got a small increase reasonably consistent with that prediction.

Spell Hunter from 4.14% to 4.41%. I predicted a large decrease and got a small increase instead.

——————————————————

If we account for players with losing winrates being less likely to want to craft new archetypes this late before a new expansion is released, the two main predictions I got wrong were Control Priest and Spell Hunter.

I still contend that Control Priest is the meta breaker for the current meta and should be played much more than it currently is, but it hasn't gotten the coverage it deserves in commentary from sites like Vicious Syndicate and Tempo Storm.

I can't understand why people are going to Spell Hunter instead of away from it.

Quote from Blue_Banana_whotookthisname >>

 

Quote from SMcB >>

The opponent's cards thing is irrelevant, the point is that if you empty your hand before your opponent does you dodge her downside. Her use is virtually identical to a 3/3 for 7 with Battlecry: Divine Favor. In other words, she goes in aggro decks, particularly those that aren't Paladin or Warlock.

What does an aggro deck do with the opponent's cards? Either the opponent is playing aggro and has a hand as empty as you do, or they're not playing aggro and you're trying to go face with anti aggro tools.

This is the type of thing where polls don't give the full picture.

A majority of the HS community doesn't care about Wild more than they care about other formats, therefore the majority will inevitably oppose this; it uses Blizzard employee time and effort to create content they're less interested in than alternative content Blizzard could make with the same resources. That said, other than that one reason, the non-Wild players wouldn't care, because the expansion wouldn't effect their play experience in any other way. So lots and lots of mild dislike.

On the other hand, such a set could potentially be beloved by Wild players. If they like it enough, that could be a minority of the population with intense love. It's possible (but not guaranteed) that the payoff could exceed the annoyance dealt to the majority.

I'm pretty much okay with any Neutral card being Hall of Famed, because it opens design space for class-specific cards that fill a similar role. I will admit, though, that I'll be disappointed if Witchwood doesn't have any mill enablers in it.

Quote from Lyra_Silvertongue >>

 

Quote from MokryDyngus >>

 Well, you need to have some major oracle skills. But until then, it would be used at wild- King togwaggle, emperor thaurassian - azalia kind of combo. So you put both, king and her, on the board, and got control not only of your opponents deck, but his hand too 

I know that is what I am already going to do in wild when Azalina releases. :) It will fit nicely as another type of Aviana Kun combo.

The opponent's cards thing is irrelevant, the point is that if you empty your hand before your opponent does you dodge her downside. Her use is virtually identical to a 3/3 for 7 with Battlecry: Divine Favor. In other words, she goes in aggro decks, particularly those that aren't Paladin or Warlock.

Quote from Nashrow >>

My prediction:

Predictions are shit.

Quote from MrShmoove >>

So according to your "numbers", pretty much everything is gonna suck. lol

Quote from vNihilism >>

You can't waste 1 mana in Even decks, your hero power costs 1

Quote from Akrosian94 >>

1) I don't think your extrapolations are going to pan out considering there are only 3 weeks left of this meta, the trends you see on VS are going to change substancially with the release of the Witchwood. 2) Also, playrate data of decks is not always monotonic. You need to take into account that people switch decks to counter the most-played deck during a certain week, making the representation of certains deck fluctuate considerably. If Priest rises, people are going to play the counter deck, so less people are going to go with priest as an option because the meta is heavily teched against it. That's how countering works.

Quote from Marega >>

How about Warrior?