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    posted a message on Onyxia's Lair Meta Predictions

    Scale of Onyxia will be the best card of the mini-set. A very good reactive card (which is rare in druid) which can also be used as a proactive one.

    Raid Boss Onyxia might see some play in druid but its gonna be unplayable outside druid.

    Kazakusan is gonna be a meme.

    Curse of Agony will be meme in standard and decent in wild, but I dont think that the deck based around it will be better than current OTK warlock decks.

    Furious Howl is gonna be insane in face hunter.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Fractured in Alterac Valley Mini Set: Onyxia's Lair - Launches February 15th - All Cards Revealed!

    So the mini-set will have a mage legendary which is a dragon. Maybe the dragon form of Reno Jackson?

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on Horn of Wrathion

    In my wild boar priest I wanted to play 4 copies of Insight. At 3 mana its a worse Insight in that deck, but it will help a lot with consistency.

    Posted in: Horn of Wrathion
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    posted a message on I need counter-decks for Questline Warrior and Questline Hunter
    Quote from SirJohn13 >>

    C'Thun Druid demolishes Pirate Warrior and feels like it is around 50%-50% vs Quest Hunter. But be prepared to lose 100% of your games vs Mages

     My experience is different, maybe Im using a different build (Im using MartianBuu's list). It is favored against pirate warrior and I havent lost a single game against quest hunter.

    Posted in: Wild Format
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    posted a message on Alliance Wins Battle for Alterac Valley!

    So you had bad RNG? Nah, its not rigged.

    Bad matchmaking? Nah, its not rigged.

    The Alliance won? WTF its rigged for sure!!!

    Posted in: News
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    posted a message on ''How is it even possible?'
    Quote from Anarchy1 >>
    Quote from Poghy >>
    Quote from Anarchy1 >>

    Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99

     Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.

    The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.

    Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.

     The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice.   Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did  is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug. 

    Quote from Poghy >>
    Quote from Anarchy1 >>

     

     I didnt proof any bug because there is a chance that OP is just unlucky.

    But when it comes to calculate the odds I am right. Maybe you are not familiar with the study of probalibity but chaining events like this results a probability that I have mentioned. So its very unlikely but it could happen.

    BTW you can chain the odds of winning the lottery but its so low that on the long run it doesnt matter.

    Posted in: The Arena
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    posted a message on ''How is it even possible?'
    Quote from Anarchy1 >>

    Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99

     Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.

    The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.

    Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.

    Posted in: The Arena
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    posted a message on Battlegrounds is rigged

    These rigging posts are getting more ridicolous every year. Why would they rig BGs in the first place? Why would they waste resources to keep everyone at 50% in a game mode thats pretty much free to play and has no rewards?

    There is this game mode thats called arena. Maybe you have heard about it. If you are good at the game you can have a complete constructed collection just by playing arena. So it would make sense for Blizzard to rig it, so they can sell more packs. It would be actually beneficial for the company to keep everyone at 50% winrate in arena. But guess what? The best players winrate are not even close to 50%. Good arena players can maintain a winrate over 70%. So its pretty obvious that arena is not rigged.

    But for some reason they are using some secret code to keep everyone at 50% in battlegrounds. OK.

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on Does anyone else think Cards have too much value?
    Quote from DjGrapejuice900 >>
    Quote from Carlsberg >>

    You said Amulet was OP... lol

     

     even though it an end of the deck card, which isn’t always easy to get to, in one turn you may be able to trade it 4-7 times. then play it as a 3 mana, summon  40+ mana worth of minions on the same turn.

     Even getting it to three minions by the mid game turn (8-10) , is a 3 mana play 15+ mana worth of minions…. Not to mention the extra 20-40 HP worth of heals and armor that might come with it…

    are you saying that isn’t a lot of value for a spell people have 2-4 of during the game???? 

     Cards have costs but its not just mana cost. There is also card cost. Usually 1 card has a 1-card-cost and hero powers have a 0-card cost. There are some exceptions, like Patches who doesnt cost mana, but he also doesnt cost a card, thats why he is so OP. Then there is something thats called opportunity cost. A proactive card with a small mana cost has very little to no opportunity cost, while a high-cost reactive card has a lot bigger opportunity cost.

    If you upgrade the amulet twice it costs you 2 extra mana. Not just that, but it also costs you opportunity to spend your mana better than that. Even if its a 3-mana card, you dont play it on curve, you play it a lot later and it has little value unless you spend some mana and a ton of opportunity to make it work.

    Im not saying that every card in HS is balanced because a lot of them arent. But when it comes to balanced cards like the amulet, you should weight its opportunity cost too, not just its mana cost.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
    Quote from Hooghout >>
    Quote from FlyingCarrot >>


    I been trying my hardest to withstand the insanity that is literally the whole f*cking game revolving around ONE f*cking deck, there is no originality, no consistency, when the main deck is soo simple that even rng cant f*ck it up and when that happens, we have a problem!

     Your comment leads only to one conclusion: there's no such thing as 'RNG'. There's only an A.I. deciding who wins or loses. Explanation: serving a target audience for marketing purposes. It's that cynical. Thinking in terms of skill and strategy is make believe to keep you playing: the next game I'll be better and hopefully win... and if you do remember it's not your skill, it's the A.I grand you that.

    Just experiment: after 3 losses in a row stop playing for 10 minutes. The A.I logs that and in other to keep you playing will grant you the next victory. Test it.

     Should I wait for exactly 10 minutes or does it also work if I wait  for like 11-12 minutes?

    Posted in: Wild Format
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    posted a message on Does anyone else think Cards have too much value?
    Quote from DjGrapejuice900 >>

     what does this game look like in two years? Are we gonna have 100 mana of value single cards. 

     We have a card like this since 2016.

    Games in HS doesnt get decided by who has more value in his deck, they are decided by tempo or who gets to assemble his combo faster. In theory you can cheat 11 mana with Rune of the Archmage but in reality you have a card thats dead in the first 8 turns and when you need a board clear from it and you dont get it you lose the game.

    The power creep is real but getting more value from high cost cards doesnt make the game worse in my opinion. The low-cost / high-tempo cards and the ultra-consistent ones (like quests) are the problematic ones.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Which nerf is more likely for pirate warrior quest? vote.
    Quote from Bengalaas >>
    Quote from LordCheesus >>
    Quote from Bengalaas >>

    Why would they nerf a tier2 deck?

     What tier it is doesn't really matter. When 90% of my matches in wild PLAT freakin' 5 are Pirate warrior, clearly the deck has become a problem.

    I've even had to resort to using pirates myself just so I can rank up. It feels gross and dirty doing so but sometimes metas leave you no choice. Pirates at the very least need the nerf. Pronto. 

     To be honest, i didn't even consider Wild.

    However, is it really the quest that is broken or is it the tempo pirates, with the quest just being the cherry on top?

     The problem is that the deck has insane early game and infinite value from turn 5-6. You can outheal and outvalue other aggro decks like shadow priest, odd dh or aggro druid but you cant do that against the Juggernaut. The first reward gives them Ancharr consistently and the second reward is a big deal against other board based decks when they already have insane tempo. The deck was already tier 1 before Deadmines but the mini-set gave them their new best 3-drop and a very strong finisher in the form of Mr. Smite.

    To be honest, the deck is beatable but there is a good reason why is it so popular in wild. IMO it should be nerfed by making the quest progression slower. I see that OP suggested a 3/3/3 change, but I would like a 4/3/2 version better.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Hero Power/Big Spell Mage
    Quote from Pherosizm >>
    Quote from Poghy >>
    Quote from ShadowAldrius >>

     The Reckless Apprentices were pretty meh, so I started running Vipers, which are a really great tech in this meta.

    Panthera is what I'm kind of questioning now. The cycle is nice, but I probably want something that gives me some actual card draw.

    Pandaren Importer maybe? IMO its better than Panthera or the Scorpid in this deck.

     Personally, I think we don't want to discover any other spells to dilute the pool for when we drop Magister. Unless you discover non-spell school spells, but there is a risk there.

    My experience so far with a similar deck has been good, but I still like Rune of the Archmage... I had a really fun, long and grindy game against a DR priest the other day, and actually what saved me was getting a random Ignite off of the rune... it allowed me to evade fatigue and stay alive to the end.

    Haven't had a game like that in a loooong time. I had fun.

     When you drop Magister, how often is he "fully charged"? Because if you are missing a spell school the importer can help you with that. But even if you sacrifice some late game power, the importer's role is to get you to the late game. It can also discover Ignite or Wildfire and a lot of other stuff that could be useful in the actual matchup.

    Posted in: General Deck Building
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    posted a message on How to nerf quests

    They will never print a card with "battlecry: destroy your opponent's win condition". I know there is Tickatus and some similar cards, but its a different story. Quest destruction will not happen for sure.

    IMO some of the quests should be nerfed, but not all of them and we dont need to completely nerf them to the ground. Something like pirate quest's first step should require 4 pirates, hunter quest's second step should require 3 damaging spells. Small steps like this could make a huge difference in winrate and if its not enough they can nerf them again. Warlock and mage quests are nerfed already and I dont see a problem with any other quests.

    There is also a way to indirectly nerf quests and it comes with the new rotation in april. Im not just talking about the rotating sets but also a new core set in 2022. They can shape the core set to not include cards that are great with the stronger quests and they will probably do so.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Hero Power/Big Spell Mage
    Quote from ShadowAldrius >>

     The Reckless Apprentices were pretty meh, so I started running Vipers, which are a really great tech in this meta.

    Panthera is what I'm kind of questioning now. The cycle is nice, but I probably want something that gives me some actual card draw.

    Pandaren Importer maybe? IMO its better than Panthera or the Scorpid in this deck.

    Posted in: General Deck Building
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