The attached images show the depreciating present value of receiving the ambush. For example, if we value an ambush at 4 mana and we will receive it in 6 turns at 5% (.05) interest, it is worth 2.98 mana this turn.

This can be also be seen as a lookup table of sorts for your more customized situation. For example, let us use 4 mana again, pretend that we get the ambushes in 2,5, and 8 turns, and this set of circumstances leads us to conclude a 10% (.1) interest rate. In this example, the ambushes are worth 3.30578+2.48368+1.30761=7.09707 mana. we can then remove our cost of 3 mana to get a profit of 4.09707 mana.

How is 3 mana the base value of a 4/4? 3 mana 4/4's usually have a downside, I think.. like Dancing Swords.

I ran the numbers valuing the 4/4 at 3 mana, 3.5 mana, and 4 mana figuring that that that would cover from bellow to above. I used the 3 mana in my example because I used the first image as my example for describing what all the images are showing.

Beneath the Grounds has the card text "Shuffle 3 Ambushes into your opponent's deck. When drawn, you summon a 4/4 Nerubian.". Because of this, each ambush is worth approximately a 4/4.

Depends. The deck, meta, and even the situation decide how long before you can expect to get the ambushes and your deck and your opponents deck decide the interest rate you need. If the profit is positive then it is safe to say the card is "good".

Ok, i will use the picture that ends with "3 mana all" and try to explain what i am showing.

cost: The card costs 3 mana to play and you are playing it on turn 0 so the present value is 3 mana.

return per: one must estimate how much a 4/4 vanilla is worth on the turn you receive it, and in that particular image i am estimating it at 3 mana.

expected returns: the three columns under each expected returns label indicate the number of turns after the turn the card is played that we expect to get an ambush.

rate: the "interest" rate used to convert future into present. For example, the .05 means that 1 mana this turn is worth 1.05 mana next turn and 1.1025 in 2 turns.

present value (profit): How much profit (income-expenses) the card is netting you when all gains and losses are converted to the present.

Instead of considering the chances of getting the ambush, i decided to look at how much profit in mana is being received (details in this thread). I did end up making some assumptions, but the general pattern can be useful.

To address the debate i have seen going around about the value of beneath the ground, I have decided to do an economical analysis of the present value of beneath the ground.

First a few baselines. The card costs 3 mana. My first run is valuing each ambush at 3 mana on the turn you get it, second at 3.5, third at 4. I ran each with average rate of returns of 3 turns, 4 turns, 5 turns, and 6 turns followed by running the same again with the third return never happening (game ended first). Each of these is then evaluated for "interest" rates of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. The output is present value of profit. I am using the following equation for present value of profit:

I personally think about it more like a weapon then a minion. Just about any class would take a 4/1 weapon that doesn't loose durrability when you attack face and hurts the enemy when they attack your face.

Seriously? There is no control over RNG especially these type of cards....please teach us how to summon legendaries from unstable portal...always doom sayer from Shredder when we need it....learn to control RNG..LOL

Controling RNG isn't gaurnteeing the result, it often means controlling the board and/or your opponent (via mindgames and such) to minimize the chances of something that is currently bad. Of a given list of possible cards you can get, some will always be bad and some will always be good or even great. You can make seemingly insignificant alterations to the board to make fewer options bad and more options good/great, effectively improving the average result.

0

The attached images show the depreciating present value of receiving the ambush. For example, if we value an ambush at 4 mana and we will receive it in 6 turns at 5% (.05) interest, it is worth 2.98 mana this turn.

This can be also be seen as a lookup table of sorts for your more customized situation. For example, let us use 4 mana again, pretend that we get the ambushes in 2,5, and 8 turns, and this set of circumstances leads us to conclude a 10% (.1) interest rate. In this example, the ambushes are worth 3.30578+2.48368+1.30761=7.09707 mana. we can then remove our cost of 3 mana to get a profit of 4.09707 mana.

0

I ran the numbers valuing the 4/4 at 3 mana, 3.5 mana, and 4 mana figuring that that that would cover from bellow to above. I used the 3 mana in my example because I used the first image as my example for describing what all the images are showing.

0

Beneath the Grounds has the card text "Shuffle 3 Ambushes into your opponent's deck. When drawn, you summon a 4/4 Nerubian.". Because of this, each ambush is worth approximately a 4/4.

1

Depends. The deck, meta, and even the situation decide how long before you can expect to get the ambushes and your deck and your opponents deck decide the interest rate you need. If the profit is positive then it is safe to say the card is "good".

2

Ok, i will use the picture that ends with "3 mana all" and try to explain what i am showing.

cost: The card costs 3 mana to play and you are playing it on turn 0 so the present value is 3 mana.

return per: one must estimate how much a 4/4 vanilla is worth on the turn you receive it, and in that particular image i am estimating it at 3 mana.

expected returns: the three columns under each expected returns label indicate the number of turns after the turn the card is played that we expect to get an ambush.

rate: the "interest" rate used to convert future into present. For example, the .05 means that 1 mana this turn is worth 1.05 mana next turn and 1.1025 in 2 turns.

present value (profit): How much profit (income-expenses) the card is netting you when all gains and losses are converted to the present.

If anything is still unclear, feel free to ask.

1

If somebody has more accurate time counts that I could run this with, I would be happy to do so and post pics of that as well.

0

Instead of considering the chances of getting the ambush, i decided to look at how much profit in mana is being received (details in this thread). I did end up making some assumptions, but the general pattern can be useful.

2

To address the debate i have seen going around about the value of beneath the ground, I have decided to do an economical analysis of the present value of beneath the ground.

First a few baselines. The card costs 3 mana. My first run is valuing each ambush at 3 mana on the turn you get it, second at 3.5, third at 4. I ran each with average rate of returns of 3 turns, 4 turns, 5 turns, and 6 turns followed by running the same again with the third return never happening (game ended first). Each of these is then evaluated for "interest" rates of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. The output is present value of profit. I am using the following equation for present value of profit:

<bdo dir="ltr">=Return/(1+rate)^time1+Return/(1+rate)^time2+Return/(1+rate)^time3-Cost</bdo>

All data is in attachments to aid load times. 4 mana, only 2 is not attached due to attachment limit.

0

Time to get kraken.

1

Finally to my jaw back in place. This card makes Dr. Boom look like child's play.

0

This is a good day, a good day indeed.

0

The question isn't if it is good, the question is how good is it?

2

+2 attack is a huge change, it is well beyond "slightly better".

0

I personally think about it more like a weapon then a minion. Just about any class would take a 4/1 weapon that doesn't loose durrability when you attack face and hurts the enemy when they attack your face.

0

Controling RNG isn't gaurnteeing the result, it often means controlling the board and/or your opponent (via mindgames and such) to minimize the chances of something that is currently bad. Of a given list of possible cards you can get, some will always be bad and some will always be good or even great. You can make seemingly insignificant alterations to the board to make fewer options bad and more options good/great, effectively improving the average result.