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    posted a message on Pity Timers, How Do They Work?

    It was not just the 33 no-leg run, but also a 40 no-leg run before that, both with mixing. 

    But if the experimentation and the statistics are so air tight then guess I was just really unlucky lately. And I concede the point. My sample size was always small even though thought provoking. But there is also a chance things no longer work as they did, but I am sure someone with more data than me will bring that out if it is the case.

    I also got very shit luck with Standard packs so that further proves those have no pity timer.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Pity Timers, How Do They Work?

    Puns aside, serious question because I noticed something curious.

    So supposedly there are two kinds of Pity Timer. First works only in Expansion Packs, you get 1 guaranteed Legendary in your first 10 Packs of any given Expansion. This as far as I can tell works fine.

    The second kind applies to all kinds of Packs as I understand and works in such a way that you can never go more than 40 Packs without seeing a Legendary within a given kind of Pack. So within 40, say, UiS Packs you will find a Legendary for sure. Maybe.

    Because here is where I noticed some potential issue.

    What I do is, I keep track of my opened Packs and if I see I have like 13 or more opened without a Legendary I consider those kind of Packs high probability to open a Legendary so I focus on them until it pops. This is where I spotted a potential inconsistency. I had opened 12 UiS packs at some point, then I opened some Alterac Packs and now some Sunken ones. Seeing that I had so many UiS ones I figured I pop that before continuing to work on Sunken Packs. And it took 33 Packs (counting the 12) for a Legend to come out. Now this is not over 40 so not a smoking gun, but it is unlikely. Especially so given how I had a similar event in the past where I similarly mixed Packs and again neared or (and depending on how accurate my count was) exceeded 40 Packs before Legend drop. This seems to strongly hint that:

    Conclusion: There is a fair chance that Pity Timers can be messed up by mixing different kinds of Packs, i.e. opening a few of UiS then FitB, then back to UiS or whatever. The game will forget how many you opened of the kind you opened in the past, seemingly only remembering the most recent kind of Pack you opened. If you do this you will risk going more than 40 Packs without a Legendary drop which we can all agree would suck quite a bit. If I am right the optimal strategy is to open only one kind of Pack until a Legendary drops, only then start purchasing or opening a different kind of Pack. Opening them willy-nilly as they come and mixing different kinds of Packs may leave you with longer than usual Legendary droughts.

    Any thoughts?

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on How can I see ranked classification for Mercenaries?

    Guessing you mean how heroes and their abilities/equipment upgrade? I found a good source on the hearthstone wiki.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Matchmaking seemingly hotfixed, anyone else unsatisfied?

    IIRC Blizz mentioned they will make changes that will make it more likely you get matched with people rather than AI in the Fighting Pit, and seems it is here. I personally found the AIs, well, easier and more fun. Players all go for the min-MAX and are rather annoying to play against. And they all seem to have more powerful stuff than me, literally every team I fought had Carine, and one was a full Fire meta team. I run a hodgepodge of guys I got as a casual F2P player. How the hell is this fair. And the AI fights were very chill without being trivial, I quite enjoyed them. And not like you got terribly far with focusing on AI, you could only get 7k rating before being thrust into the grinder against very unequal foes. That is just the 2nd golden chest in terms of rewards. Well I still got it since I was very near when this change hit but in the future things will be less nice.

    And now this option is gone, and you get put against players even when it is quite uneven. I ran a lvl30x5 + 1 low lvl teams to target AI. So I can easily see if my opponent is as good as me or not, my Gul'dan was like lvl 15 and their low lvl merc was 24, that is quite uneven. Which shows this new matchmaker gives you human opponents quickly by sacrificing any pretense at a fair match. I really hope they revert this change.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Mercenaries Salt Thread

    Sees he got a pack with two epics :D

    One of the epics is a Brightwing skin D:

    Imo they really need to stop this shit of getting skins before you have all the mercs of that rarity. It feels really crummy. At least my other card was Geddon.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Mercenaries Salt Thread

    It is good to manipulate the matchmaker to give you AI opponents since the winrate is way better than going up against players who in addition tend to run more polished comps than me at this MMR (5,2k).

    The downside is sometimes rarely you lose to AI and feel really bad :P

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Matchmaking broken?
    Quote from ChosenOne >>

    So blizz said that your MM takes into account ur mercs EQUIPED inventory, but I have unequipped everything and got matched against a guy with 4 level 30s with maxxed level 7 equipment twice in a row (couldnt see rest of his mercs because well i got destroyed obviously).

    Anyone else experienced this as well? I feel its matching with what you have UNLOCKED not EQUIPPED.

    edit: 10 matches now of diff opponents with maxed equipment, like how do you even compete? People who farmed tasks pre-nerf are way ahead. 
    Dropped from 6900 to 6000

     Are you running into real people or AI?

    I think if AI (Your Opponent) that Blizz gives AI better stuff than you to compensate for the AI being... AI

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Mercenaries Salt Thread
    Quote from Dragy10 >>

    I don't seem to get any more tasks from runs, only sabotage, blue portals and the explosion thing.

    Did they remove that or just dramatically reduced the chance of getting one?

    Before the latest update I used to get one on 50% of the runs, now I didn't get one for about 5 runs at least.

     

    When I first started playing I was almost always getting Mysterious Stranger, later it was much less. Maybe it was changed, but maybe it is small sample size/variance. Also when I was doing heroics every event or close to it was a Blue Portal, again maybe higher odds of that in HC or maybe (un)luck.

    But given that I am not the only one and less MS is slower progression it does make me wonder...

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Merc coins data.

    Pretty preliminary but yeah I found roughly what you did. Three coins bounty, one party and one random. Epics and rares seem to be about equal, legends noticeably rarer and smaller.

    Thanks also for the info on HC rewards.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Possibly Obvious, Possibly Vital Hint
    Quote from nosebleed7 >>

    OP, here is a follow up question, if you (or anyone) knows:

    If you and your Opponent have multiple mercs, all with the exact same speed, does the initial coinflip between you and your opponent apply to your whole squad (of same speed mercs) or is each minion rolled seperatly?

    For example, you have minion A and B, opponent has C and D. Both of you choose your personal order of attacks ("A first, B second"; and respectively "C first, D second").
    Now, if you win the coinflip, is it ALWAYS "A first, B second, C third, D fourth"? And if he wins it would be "C first, D second, A third, B fourth"?
    Or is it possible for example that it goes "A first, C second, B third, D fourth"?

     Pretty sure it's possible for things to be mixed up between you and your opponent. But not 100%, I will keep an eye out. Also it is easy to test if you get a speed 7 merc and see when they go compared to the masses of mobs that just Attack 7, IIRC the trees in Felwood autoattack first round and come in threes (heh) so good odds of figuring it out then and there.

     

     

     

    And I found out the rule in the OP the hard way. My Samuro went first 3-4 times in a row in one bounty or maybe just fight, and I was like FFS this can't be a coincidence. And it wasn't. Then I thought it was PvE only but works on PvP too. THEN I thought it was a bug but still decided to share with you guys so you can enjoy it before a potential fix ;)

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Merc coins data.

    Very interested in the results of your experiment, keep posting. I will try to add to it by keeping track a little. Mostly rewards, keeping track of rarities is a bit much but maybe vaguely.

    Still seems optimal farming strategy is to go for the easiest, non-HC bounty with the hero you want, ideally with that hero in party. Which is fairly obvious but did not know that HC gave equal coins, that is dumb.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Possibly Obvious, Possibly Vital Hint

    You know how it the game tells you that when two minions have the same speed it is a coin flip which goes first? Took me a few days to realize that only applies to enemy minions. For your minions of the same speed the order in which you give them commands will always be the order in which they act. So for example you can 100% of the time activate Samuro with a speed 4 ability if your Xyrella bites it for example. This works in both PvE and PvP. It also helps with choosing which deathblow you want to proc. and so on.

    Hope this helps someone be less of a clueless noob than I was ;)

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Mercenaries Salt Thread

    Figure we need one, and I will open it with a meme I've made:

    To my credit he did not flatten me, I held on for a long time but that just made it more hopeless ofc. Hardcountered his dumb ass next run though, on Normal :P

    Let the salt flow.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on Still getting coins for maxed out heroes
    Quote from fusilli >>
    Quote from Neko_Tamo >>
    Quote from emicampo >>

    also the duplicate protection works in a fishy way, always in detriment of the players, as usual with blizzard

    for example, i dont have all the epic mercs but i keep receiving stupid epic costumes of mercs that already have instead of a mercs that i dont have, luckily didnt happen to me with legendaries but if i collect coin by coin to purchase a f*****ing pack and i receive a cosmetic legendary instead of a legendary mercs i think i abandon the mode

     I seem to recall they said you can't get skins until you have all the mercs of the same rarity rank. I have so far gotten no skins for Rare mercs and I think I have all but three or so, this is mathematically highly implausible to say the least.

    So hopefully it is a bug that gets patched post-haste.

     I got golden skin for Cariel early - possibly due to getting her from a Q. Other than that, I started getting some golden skins only after getting the last few rares.

     Yes I have golden Carrie too, it comes from the quest as you guessed.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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    posted a message on [MERC] What is your chest lv {PvP rating}

    From what I've understood of the Matchmaking dev post you can game the system in some ways. Only upgrade abilities you will use, upgrading ones you don't will give you tougher opponents for no gain. Same with items, either run a highly useful one or none at all when PvPing. If you have a wonky level distribution you are highly likely to get AI opponents, some here mentioned running 1-2 low level heroes for that, so that seems to bear out. Do not make le silly builds like a 6 protector team, the game will likely punish you for that or at least give no gain, they want you to use the rock-paper-scissors system that exists.

    However the party stops at 7K rating when AI opponents are disabled and you will start running into polished compositions even if you intentionally don't run such, same is likely even sooner if all your heroes are 30 since level is the primary matchmaking criterion sub-7k. Good luck and let us know how it goes, I am curious too, don't want to rank up just yet want to enjoy the noob zone a bit longer so would love to know if my system works.

    Posted in: Mercenaries
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