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    posted a message on How does matchmaking work (better player at lower ranks?)

    We understand completely what you're saying, but it's just not correct.

    This post I made a few minutes ago points to a public data set that makes absolutely clear that across thousands of players the matchmaking is random with respect to what is in your deck.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on How does matchmaking work (better player at lower ranks?)

    In my post above, I offered you a source of a huge amount of publicly available data that says you're not right about this.  Have you looked at it yet?

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on How does matchmaking work (better player at lower ranks?)

    - Rank (shold be around the same rank as you)
    - Experience (number of wins in ranked)
    - NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)

    They have stated that they try to match newer players against each other, but other than that the third on your list is certainly not the case.  How do I know?  Easy.  If you visit HSReplay's Meta Matchups tab, you can mouse over each archetype matchup in their entire database and see both popularity percentages and raw numbers of times those matchups have occurred in their entire data set.

    I'll cut to the chase so you don't have to:  The percentage matchups for each archetype closely track the popularity of each opponent archetype.  Or, to put it another way, they are not manipulating your opponents based on what is in your deck.

    It's unlikely there's a more comprehensive data set out there for looking at these numbers.  Fortunately, HSReplay.net has put it all out there for anyone to see who cares enough to look.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Is the ladder rigged?

    I sympathize with your frustration with the confirmation bias people bring to these threads, but matchmaking systems are a particularly interesting game design problem that companies like Blizzard tend to talk about very sparingly (probably to avoid people trying to game their systems.)

    It's a legitimate topic for discussion, though I'd love to get away from the use of loaded terms like "rigged."

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 1

    posted a message on Is the ladder rigged?

     

    Quote from Ferrafox >>

    Why would blizzard go through such a complicated process just to piss off their player base? Changing deck just to face your counter is probably the most tilting experience that can happen to a hearthstone player, and they would pay money just to make everyone experience it? I don't think so...

    TL;DR Since every loss for one player is a win for another, driving players closer to 50% reduces the number of players who will have a "tilting" loss streak on average.   Also, in principle, adjusting matchmaking based on selected archetype helps reduce impact of deck choice on measurement of player skill. 
    I will caveat all these comments by saying that I do not have a strong opinion about what precisely Hearthstone matchmaking is doing behind the scenes.  I don't have the data to support any particular argument (though there is some interesting information out there which suggests it may not be simple, which I'll link.)
    Regarding the question of "changing deck just to face your counter:"
    The hypothetical "pure" ranked matchmaking system for Hearthstone would be one where every matchup were perfectly random between players at a given star rating.  This is probably what most people think of when they say Hearthstone matchmaking is "not rigged."
    It's important to note, though, that matchmaking systems exist to improve on pure randomness.  Their goal isn't to provide random matches, it's to provide fair matches.  This is why they do things like match players based on hidden skill measurements (MMR) or other factors that might help predict what will be a fair match.  Anything that's not purely random could in principle be called "rigged," but that doesn't mean it's necessarily "unfair."
    Let's say that you have a cross-section of players with equal raw Hearthstone skill.  They are all equally familiar with common decks in the meta, equally skilled at anticipating and playing around threats, and equally good at remembering what's been played and what has yet to be played (or they use the same deck tracker.)  But, they choose different decks to play.  Maybe a fraction of them consider Kingsbane rogue "fun," despite that it's not dominant in the current meta.  Others look up winning decks on Vicious Syndicate and head straight for Murloc Paladin.  These players will, in that "unrigged" system, have possibly very different win/loss rates based on their choice of deck and the distribution of deck choices out there.  And, their ranks will evolve to be different based solely on their choice of decks.
    A matchmaking system that makes different choices based on what deck &/or cards are in a player's current deck can, in principle, help factor out that large, systematic error introduced by deck choice, if the system's goal is to measure individual player skill differences.  Of course, the simplest way to do this would be to try to find everyone a mirror match in every game.  But, that's un-fun, takes away unnecessarily from the variety in the game, and would be really obvious.
    An alternative would be to identify archetypes and shoot for matchmaking combinations between archetypes such that their average performance is predicted to be 50%.  If an archetype is really strong in the current meta and across all players would be predicted to win 60% of their games with random same-rank matching, match it against an excess of its counter to bring it down to 50%.  That player's frustration may be a bit more, and their sense of achievement, yes, would be somewhat less than it would be otherwise.  But, the players who are playing the counter deck have a somewhat better experience at the same time.  The thing about player vs. player modes is that it's zero-sum, so increasing one player's chance to lose necessarily improves another player's chance to win.
    Because such a matchmaking system would look at aggregate win rates between archetypes (and not, for example, a separate MMR per archetype per player), it provides ample room for a player who gets really good at a skill-heavy archetype to perform better than the 50% target average.
    I don't have statistical evidence to suggest that this is happening, but Blizzard's comments at Blizzcon last November suggest that they may have been adopting approaches like this.
    Edit:  To be clear, I do not believe that they modify against whom you're matched based on recent game performance.  Win and loss streaks are a normal outcome of random coin flips, so they're very susceptible to confirmation bias.  Also, such behavior would work against the goal of having a ranking system that actually measures player skill.  But, I do think it's quite likely that the contents of your deck may be used as a factor in today's (early 2018) Hearthstone matchmaker.
    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 1

    posted a message on Pointing wrong cards, why ?

     

    Quote from Wingdude22 >>

    There is also a bug where it looks like your opponent is pointing at a specific minion,but when the spell is casted it lands somewhere else. 

    Looks like a minor delay issue maybe cause bad server connection? But maybe it has been fixed already.

     This has been an ongoing problem for Hearthstone since release.
    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Hearthstone earnings.

    If the different methodology is to exclude mobile revenue, sure.

    Regardless, Hearthstone is a tremendous moneymaker for Blizzard at any of these revenue levels.  The team is small, the game is technically simple, and the art costs are relatively quite low compared to any other Blizzard game.

    However, I do know a lot of people who used to play on PC who have migrated to playing entirely on mobile because their mobile implementation is so good and the short game length works well with how people play mobile games.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on i can't win against aggro as a razakus

    People just complain that it's "autopilot" because it can be very frustrating to lose to a well-played combo deck.  They don't get to see the hours of awful games that led up to that point for their priest opponent. :)

    Posted in: Priest
  • 2

    posted a message on i can't win against aggro as a razakus

    This is the deck I have been running with.  I have not been feeling weak against aggro in general, though there are some games that I just straight-up lose.  Trick is to mulligan heavily for early AOE and card draw vs. paladin, rogue, druid (just in case), and, to a lesser extent, warlock.  Key cards for this are Spirit LashDuskbreakerDragonfire PotionKazakus (which can give you both AOE and card draw), Netherspite Historian (to fish for Duskbreaker), Primordial Drake, and Psychic Scream.

    Sometimes aggro decks just walk all over me, but just as often, it feels like I can come up with an answer for everything they do and they just get nowhere while I chip away at them.

    Edit:  Pint-Size Potion and Shadow Word: Horror are a great combo, but I find it's easier just to run some heavier AOE that doesn't require having both cards, particularly since Pint-Size Potion doesn't seem that handy on its own.  But, I haven't spent a lot of time working out how best to use them.

    AOE-heavy Razakus
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    Posted in: Priest
  • 1

    posted a message on Advice for climbing from 5 to Legend?

    The single best thing you can do to accelerate your climb to legend is start playing very carefully.  Work on improving the little mistakes you make.

    Beyond that, play a relatively fast deck so you can play a lot of games quickly.

    Finally, if the idea going around is correct that matchmaking takes either your class or deck into account to match you against opponents who are predicted to average a 50% win rate against you (and this is far from proven), you might find it helpful to pick a deck with an unusually high skill cap and master it, since such a matchmaking system would best reward people who far exceed average performance with their decks.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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