• 6

    posted a message on Why is the MMR so fake? Matchmaking is rigged!

    The ranked system does not (primarily) use an MMR*.  You are matched with other people as close to the same rank as possible, probably without regard to any estimate of your performance.

    What this means is that after the reset each month, everyone is clawing back up the ladder.  Legend players start at 16/3 stars and people who haven't played start at 25, but if someone starts at 25 and gets to 15 relatively quickly, they'll be playing the slower players from legend the previous month, and their decks.

    As the month progresses, the more active players and stronger players move up fast, while others move up more slowly, and lower ranks become easier as a result.  Probably the easiest time to move through lower ranks is somewhere near the end of the month, offset perhaps by more serious but inactive players coming back in the last week to rush through getting the card back.

    If you'd like to play with an MMR system that tries to match you against other similarly-performing players, Casual mode offers that.  While my normal account is in NA, I play an f2p account on EU as well, and complete quests in casual mode using basic decks while laddering with one decent quality deck in ranked.  Because casual uses an MMR, and I'm using weak decks there, I can get my quests done relatively quickly because I'm matched against other players in a similar position.  Playing ranked, I'm up against all the usual meta deck suspects.

    Hope that helps with understanding what's going on.

    *  It's pretty clear that Hearthstone does at least retain an Elo-like estimation of skill in ranked mode, even if it's not the main mechanism for matching.  This is how the game chooses new Legend players' rankings, and how matching is done for legend players.  I'm not sure we know if it's used as a secondary input for matchmaking at lower ranks.

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 3

    posted a message on Quality of Blizzard games going down?

    Blizzard consistently manages to make games that are engaging and highly polished.  Yes there are other games in the same spaces that are more ambitious, or more rewarding for some particular subset of players, or just more successful.  But, I work for another game company, and every single person plays Blizzard games.  Maybe not exclusively, but they're all sold on the experience.

    The whole "quality going down" narrative comes almost entirely from people who have warm childhood memories of the first Blizzard games they ever saw.  

    Posted in: General Chat
  • 1

    posted a message on Just reached Rank 5: Should I stay or keep going?

    Getting from rank 5 to legend takes about as many games as getting from rank 20 to rank 5, assuming you maintain the same win rate.  If you can play that many games in a day, go for it, but I myself would probably save my energy for the new season and try to get to rank 5 earlier in the month. :)

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on A thought about a direction for warlock quest decks.

    After more play:  This is horrible, it just doesn't work.  But, one game out of ten is hilarious.

    Posted in: Warlock
  • 0

    posted a message on A thought about a direction for warlock quest decks.

    I've been playing around a bit with a warlock quest deck that doesn't really try to be a zoo lock at the same time.  Instead, it attempts to use a ton of card draw to accelerate the completion of the quest.  In playing this deck, one interesting side effect is that the cards that discard others are relatively powerful and come out pretty early, which can (when things work out) lead to a pretty strong board state around turns 4-6.

    It's super-gimmicky and may not have a chance to develop into something viable, but I figured I'd share it with others to see if it stimulated some conversation.

    Edit:  A new article on hsreplay.net describes their stats about how the quests affect win rate.  According to them, getting the lock quest completed by turn 7 is the tipping point for a favorable win rate.  I was finding that this deck could usually complete the quest around turn 7 or 8, but a little tweaking (or better play) could improve that perhaps?

    Edit 2:  Here's what I wrote up for the deck description:

    After playing some of the decks floating around out there for quest warlock, a couple problems jumped out at me:

    • There are a limited number of cards that discard others.
    • Getting the quest requires fueling those discards with more cards (because you only get credit for cards actually discarded.)

    So, I went all-out adding card draw.  This version of the deck maximizes card draw to enable discards.  Lots of card draw also gets more and powerful discard-based cards out faster, which also enables having a reasonably strong board state on early turns because those cards have better stats to compensate for the discard disadvantage.

    My success with this seemed to depend on successfully drawing lots of cards and getting Lakkari Felhound out fast to buy time, ideally with a Nat Pagle behind it.

    My approach to the mulligan was to hunt for 1- and 2-drop card draw cards like Novice Engineer and Loot Hoarder.

    This deck is gimmicky and probably will not ever be viable on ladder.  However, it feels tremendously powerful when it works and might be the foundation of something worthwhile.

    Quest Warlock Experiment
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    Posted in: Warlock
  • 1

    posted a message on Need a deck that can help me reach legend...

    Community-sourced data out there such as VS indicates that Elemental Shaman is winning more than 50% of the time from rank 10 to legend.  You can certainly rank up with a good deck.  You'll probably need to craft Kalimos, not sure how much more dust you'll need than that.

    Posted in: General Deck Building
  • 0

    posted a message on Who agrees that we probably have the healthiest meta yet?
    Quote from alienoreo >>
    Casual seems far more instructive and frankly it's just a lot more fun. I have difficulty understanding why people spend hours and hours grinding ranks against decks they absolutely hate, absolutely not having much fun, when whey could have much more interesting games in casual. Then again, I'm not a trophy collector.
     In my case at least, it comes down to the challenge of playing against the very strongest decks, run by people who are really motivated to win and have a ton of practice with them.
    I find it fun to rank up on the ladder.  Getting to Legend felt a bit like climbing a mountain, not something worth doing every month, but worth doing, and I feel like I learned a lot about the game getting there.  I do feel that it's more of a test of persistence than a test of skill, particularly if one's borrowing a strong deck (as almost everyone does,) but it does require making a conscious effort to patch up holes in one's play, monitor how things are going, and fix problems as they come up.
    Having an awesome time now, though, building crazy decks and trying them out in casual mode.  I'm horrible at deck building. :)
    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on Who agrees that we probably have the healthiest meta yet?
    Quote from aeson88 >>

    I don't think it's that healthy, there's still way too much aggro. 

     It's not that other archetypes aren't viable, it's that the structure of the ladder rewards spamming games, and aggro decks win or lose in a shorter time.  No possible meta out there will alter this bias unless it were simply impossible to make an aggro deck that worked (and I'd argue that would be an unhealthy meta in its own right.)
    Slower, more consistent, usually more skill-intensive decks can probably be pretty viable too, but because the games are longer you need to keep a much higher win rate up to make them worth it.  These will never be the most common on ladder but for someone willing to invest time to learn them they might be really effective.  I think choosing one of those decks is an option for someone who doesn't want to play the aggro game (but be ready to need to get really good at shutting other people's aggro down.)
    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 1

    posted a message on Pirate Warrior still the best deck?
    Quote from Lisca >>

    Pirate Warrior is superior in many ways... it has high consistency

    Pirate Warrior is consistent against certain deck archetypes but also consistently loses to others.  Also, it's very sensitive to having good card draw.  Playing it well requires shorter-term decision-making than many other decks (including some fast ones.)
    If you look at the archetype win rate chart on VS, you'll see that pirate warrior is all over the place while other archetypes are less sensitive to their opponent's archetype.  That lower sensitivity means lower variance in win rate as your skill improves and probably means a more predictable ladder climb (though not necessarily faster.)
    I ended up ditching PW this month because it felt like the outcome wasn't really in my hands beyond a certain point, it was too much down to card draw and against whom I got matched.  The overall average win rate is good, but kind of depends on the things that easily beat it being less popular right now.
    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on Pirate Warrior still the best deck?

    My experience trying to rank up with pirate warrior above rank 5 (and this is borne out by the VS data) is that it's really great against certain deck archetypes and fails horribly against others.  This means that there's more variance in win rate, and extreme streakiness.  You might shoot up to rank 3 only to fall back to rank 5 again.  (This can of course happen with any deck, but pirate warrior is less consistent than some others.)

    It does have the critical advantage of being a fast deck, but a more consistent deck will help ensure you don't end up way out on the long tail of many hundreds of games to get from R5 to Legend.

    I ended up switching to a murloc paladin deck, which can still be fast, has a solid win rate and is a lot more consistent.  The worst match-ups aren't as bad (and the best match-ups aren't as good) but how things go isn't as dictated by a rock-scissors-paper of deck archetypes alone.

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on How much is the ''Legend'' cardback still worth?
    Quote from Grumhul >>
    Quote from Breweryhorse >>

    A ELO ranking system like we have it for Chess would be much better for hearthstone too. 

    Blizzard had a ELO like system for starcraft/broodwar. They should make it for hearthstone too:)

     Nope. You need to think about the problems generated by such a system, when adopted by a game played by 40million players. Queue times will get horrible.
     "Casual" mode uses the same Elo-like system as Blizzard's other games.
    Posted in: General Discussion
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