Hearthpwn

Don't forget that it also means you need to give a lot of spaces to generally average secrets to be worthwhile. So you get one great turn at the expense of several others.

No place for 1x Faceless Manipulator? It seems like it would add some very scary mid game in conjunction with the void caller->big demons, giants, etc. Maybe its win more?

Pretty good list, of course not every deck needs all these things but as general guidelines they are good. I would say :

2. Note sure. There are quite few classes where silence seldom sees play (mage, warrior, paladin).

4. Not sure. For example this could cause druid to pick seeds/starfall over swipe. You might consider flamestrike a strong enough AOE to be "board clear", but in some mage decks blizzard/cone-of-cold (or none) is better. Zoo doesn't benefit much from hellfire. Hunter doesn't need any board clear. Seems like there are too many decks where this guideline would cause the wrong picks for it to be here.

6. No. Too many deck archetypes don't need rag or KT.

In other words it IS an exact copy it was just created at a different time.

Quote from Kahgro »

The Druid's best minions are Keeper of the Grove and Ancient of Lore, they are x2 auto cincludes in every deck. Let's actually do the math on their value shall we? Keeper of the Grove has a 2.5 mana body + a 1.5 mana effect when it is deal 2 damage and a 1 mana effect when it is silence. AT BEST Keeper comes down to being slightly over budgeted, compare to Goblin Blastmage or Fire Elemental and you can see a huge difference already. Ancient of Lore is a 4.5 mana body, barely with a 3 mana effect. Cycling a card is not budgeted the same in Hearthstone as drawing a card, Mortal Coil, Shiv, etc. Cycling a card in Hearthstone is valued at 1 mana, and drawing one is valued at 2. Lore has a 4.5 mana body + a 3 mana effect, coming down to barely 7.5 mana value, pretty good, but not insane. Druid does NOT have the best minions, Druid has been left behind by the meta shifts most notably GvG, Druid has gotten absolutely zero good class minions.

You have to give value to the choice as well, although AoL might be used for draw most of the time,  the healing can win games, KotGs choice is more useful, and another card you didn't mention - Druid of the Claw - is much more valuable because of its choice.

So is this deck working in 5-Legend? Going to fatigue seems like a rather slow way to ladder if its only viable in around 10-20. On the other hand it does seem fun, and I have much love for the use of shadow form :)

If you had just 33 commons from GvG's 80 then there is an approximately 50% chance you will have 3 of the same card (blah this link to wolfram alpha didn't work, if curious google for wolfram alpha birthday problem calculator, set the option to select the number of days, or in this case cards, and enter the numbers 33 and 80).

Its a classic example of the Birthday Problem (the results of which surprise me to this day).

On top of that theres also Survivor Bias, users are likely to report stories of extreme good and bad luck over others. So even if you are an outlier (too much calculation required to work out the exact odds), the logical conclusion is not that the process is biased towards duplicates (i.e. its much more likely you were just unlucky).

Quote from Flood »

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Keep in mind most people that post what they have gotten would usually have better results because not to many people would post there Medicare/Average pulls or even remember them.

+1

Quote from RobertDeMeijer »

Pre Naxx I averaged 4-5 wins, post-Naxx it has been 5-6 wins. So for me, things have been a bit easier.

yeah I've seen an upswing too, my average has gone from 3-5 to 5-7.