Thanks to your comment I was convinced to try this out (saw that your post was less than a day old lol). Also took me around ten tries with this deck. =)
- Gidfrid
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Reverie21 posted a message on [LOE3] Easy Heroic - Lord SlitherspearPosted in: [LOE3] Easy Heroic - Lord Slitherspear -
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Ligiertheexalted posted a message on Malchezaar's ImpPosted in: Malchezaar's ImpFor those who don't know, you actually have to discard a card (cards) for this card's effect to activate. PlayingDoomguard or Darkshire Librarian etc with an empty hand will not draw you any cards.
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ferrari510m posted a message on [LOE3] Easy Heroic - Lord SlitherspearPosted in: [LOE3] Easy Heroic - Lord SlitherspearStall, get the combo up gg wp.
THX
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user-23994830 posted a message on [Heroic] Skelesaurus Hex Mill RoguePosted in: [Heroic] Skelesaurus Hex Mill Rogueyou need the second Gang Up
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eponymous posted a message on 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus DeckPosted in: 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus DeckIt just so happens that an old friend of mine has a PhD in math with a focus on combinatorics. (He's also published in peer-reviewed journals.) I ran this scenario by him, and he first came up with 5.1% as the lower bound just for a 4-card hand, without factoring in the mulligan:
You have 4 hands you are happy with: AABB, AABX, ABBX, and ABXX.
AABB: 1 way (obv)
ABBX: 2 ways to pick A, 26 ways to get X
AABX: same
ABXX: 2 ways for A, 2 ways for B, 26 choose 2 ways for XX (that's 26*25/2)Total hands is 30 choose 4. Add up desired hands, divide by total.
He had a bit more free time time later today, so using this technique he came up with 8.58% as the lower bound when you factor in the effect of the mulligan. (If he missed a case, the odds could be even higher, but he's too busy right now to bother to go more in-depth unless someone else comes up with a vastly different number. Here's his work, if you want to try to puzzle out how he got that number.)
So, there you have it. There's a better than 2/25 chance of getting the cards you need in your hand for the first turn.
If you wanna apologize for being such a jerk when you didn't have any idea what you were doing, that'd be cool. Otherwise, I'm just gonna be basking in the warm glow of knowing how deeply embarrassing this must be for you.
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eponymous posted a message on 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus DeckPosted in: 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus Deck"My initial estimate was off by over 360%, but you're the idiot." k neighbor
(I will happily admit that I misread your initial post and thought you were calculating it as 2/30 * 2/29 * 2/28 * 2/27 which I'm sure you'll agree would have been completely off base.)
A 1/20 chance of getting the combo sounds much closer to what my experience with this deck has been than 1/100, but either you're still calculating wrong or I've had ridiculously good luck with pulls. I wasn't keeping track yesterday, but it feels like overall I was getting the initial combo somewhere between 1/5 to 1/10 of the time. I repeatedly got a playable first hand, and I didn't play anywhere close to 100 attempts before giving up for the day. I started keeping track this morning, and unfortunately (or fortunately) on my fifth try I pulled the combo and used it to kill him. Obviously 5 hands is way too small a sample to draw any conclusions from, but it feels like a similar concede/play ratio to what I had yesterday.
What I will say is, EVEN IF THE CHANCE OF GETTING THE COMBO IS ONLY 1/20, the fact that you can immediately concede if you don't get the combo means this deck can be more viable than one where you have to wait longer only to learn that you've been wasting your time. That's a lot of nonviable matches you can bail out of after only having put in the time for the setup of your first hand.
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eponymous posted a message on 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus DeckPosted in: 100% Easiest Heroic Chromaggus DeckThis math is totally wrong. Like, on so many levels. You're not factoring in the mulligan. You're multiplying in a lot of spots where you should be adding. Even a few casual test runs would have demonstrated to you that the odds of setting up a starting hand of Alarm-o-Bot + Innervate are way, way higher than 1/100.
I am too tired to puzzle out the actual math on this, but if someone good at stats wants to come and show their work for just exactly how far off you are, that would be cool.
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Took Around 10 tries but it still works well! Thanks!
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First Try! Thank you!