• 1

    posted a message on Lady Liadrin

    Like the hero, pretty cool emotes.

    BUT (slight OT ahead):

    What happened?
    I used to play wow in vanilla, tbc and part of wotlk.
    I remember how I was DEAD if i agrod more than one mob at lvl ~8.

    Started priest because why not and i literally could just sw:pain 7 mobs around me and wait for them to die.
    Not only does instant dot have the damage to kill entire mob but 8 mobs can't kill me?

    Not even 5 hours for lvl 20? AND people even have not only hairlooms i remember from wotlk but can have mount motorbike on level 10 or something? Lol - We will never be subs  (again)

    Posted in: Lady Liadrin
  • 2

    posted a message on Xzirez: Omelettadin (#2)

    Those are valid options, but after ~15 games I played this deck. Tirion Fordring mostly served me as a one turn delayer. The taunt is vital in these matchups where it comes down to last 2 turns being race.

    In those cases, even Annoy-o-Tron would be better than Ragnaros the Firelord.
    In games where I didn't use him semi-defensively, I played him in a situation I didn't need him to win most of the time.

    So I would see Sunwalker as a better replacement if you don't have Tirion.

    Posted in: Xzirez: Omelettadin (#2)
  • 2

    posted a message on A way to have infinite turns in a single game?

    Game concludes in draw after ~30 turns of no damage delt as far as I know.

    Also:
    Mal'Ganis vs Mal'Ganis

    edit: found the vod confirming the draw at least for infinite try with Mal:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LYtRjoTknc

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Should Piloted Shredder be nerfed?

    It balances the game, making midrange stronger vs other archetypes not being able to run pilot like freeze mage and decks having specific strong 4drop options like handlock.

    Nerfing pilot wouldn't change anything in midrange-midrange, the spot would just be taken by something else, probably yeti and midrange would get weaker vs other matchups.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Gahz'rilla
    Quote from Hazem >>
    Quote from Beesman93 >>
    Quote from Hazem >>

    since i packed him last week it would be fun to play around him.

    Quote from Trinity809 >>

    (shoot him and then he wrecks the enemies face) but he's a big guy

    Gahz'rilla is a she, guys.

    WRONG - being Hydra doesn't mean it's female:

    ...huge hydra Gahz'rilla, so fierce that even his scales crackle with energy...
    The trolls worshipped him as a deity....

    source: http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/Gahz'rilla

     

     

    It's mentioned here as a female: http://wow.gamepedia.com/Gahz'rilla

    "From that pool the trolls summoned the huge hydra Gahz'rilla, so fierce that even her scales crackle with energy. The trolls worshipped her as a deity, but the summoning of Gahz'rilla is a well-kept secret of the trolls. Gahz'rilla is said to be a demigod."

    "The Sandfury tried to strengthen Gahz'rilla to attack Stormwind. Hydromancer Kulratha attempted to send her into Stormwind and Thunder Bluff, however heroes lead by Varian Wrynn and Cairne Bloodhoof invaded Zul'Farrak, slain Kulratha as well as Gahz'rilla. It is unknown what happened to the Sandfury after her defeat, although she did appear to have small versions of her swimming in her pool of water."

    "Legend has it that Gahz'rilla was an adored pet of the Old Gods, or even a demigod in her own right. Whatever the truth is, the Sandfury trolls have worshiped this monstrous hydra for thousands of years. Ever wary of the beast's icy wrath, the trolls will only rouse Gahz'rilla when they have plentiful sacrifices to sate the ravenous creature's appetite."

    In that case I would go by official lore. Problem was he is not mentioned in any book or official short story i know off.
    But he was part of quest in wow, and wowhead has old quest descriptions. So that is the most official lore piece of his sex.

    Description
    Deep in Zul'Farrak, the sand troll city in Tanaris, there is a sacred pool. From that pool the trolls summon a huge beast! Gahz'rilla! He's so fierce that even his scales crackle with energy. It's that energy I want to harness for my car!
    Bring me the electrified scale of Gahz'rilla!
    But the summoning of Gahz'rilla is a well-kept secret of the trolls. To face him, you must first wrest the secret from them.

    Progress
    Do you have the scale?  I can't wait to try different ways to harness its energy!

    Completion
    Wow, you got the scale!  Thanks, <name>.  I can't wait to get to work on this thing!
    So you saw Gahz'rilla?  Was he as big as they say??

    source: http://www.wowhead.com/quest=2770/gahzrilla

    Posted in: Hunter
  • 1

    posted a message on Hearthstone Probability Guide [LoE UPDATE]

    Random in computing is usually pseudo-random. But you can get close enough to not be able to tell a difference over true random even with all games played in history of the game and when you can't make prediction in any plausable case to have any advantage it's random enough.

    What you need to be careful about as programmer when you are not experienced is seeding and normal random algorithms based on clocking, you need to be sure you will not generate the same number for back-to-back generation because you used the same seed with the same clock.

    Modern algorithms wanting to avoid the pseudo part of pseudo-random as much as possible use cosmic background radiation (random.org for example as far as i know) or quantum noise using the nature of quantum physics itself (most of modern gambling machines).

    Wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard using some kind of TRNG like that actually btw.

    If hs makes you wearing a tinfoil hat and making tinfoil theories:

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on Hearthstone Probability Guide [LoE UPDATE]

    That is way to deterministic aproach.

    The same aproach people had when they first thought about chess and computing.

    The problem is, there are more possible chess positions than the number of atoms in observable universe, and same goes for HS matchup very easilly. So the problem is you can never have enough computing power to do that.

    The better aproach is to program AI that accounts or averages values of common terms like "tempo play, fliping into face dmg from board ctrl" for HS and "center control, pining, forking, sacrfice, locked piece value etc.." in chess and let it simulate only couple of turns ahead for this.

    And in terms of matchups, the best is still statistics of real people, because the median player will make mistakes on both sides compared to "all possibilities calculated" scenario - so for matchups it's still best to sit 50 players infront of 25 decks, let them swiss play all vs all with all decks (~1.5M matches) and collect data - which is basically what TempoStorm metasnapshot does on lower scale.
    If you do the same with 50 bots, and maybe let them have dynamical AI or even neural network - you might discover a perfect deck, unbeatable if played pefrectly in 80+% times, but your data for real people will still be flawed because they won't play perfect.

    So i wouldn't even consider it real math or statistics - when I calculate these missiles in this scenario kill that minion 65% of the time, i expect that minion die 60-70 times when i do the same position 100 times. - that 65% is real math.
    But the matchup thing will never be precise, because you will affect the data simply by messuring it (it's not human playing, or they try harder in experiment, they are pros, group X is willing to test this consist mostly of better than average players)
    And b) META is dynamic, probability of things like missiles and shreder drops is not - so i wouldn't include matchup chances into this imo, even if it would be possible to calculate precisely.

    So i agree, thing like matchup has no place in thread about probability, because it is statistics - the precise probability of deck X + strategy A vs. deck Y + strategy B - both perfect players, sure there is probability.
    But that probability comes down to card draw and all RNG, so you could deconstruct it back. And we can already see the results of this insane testing without doing the testing.
    "It is good to draw ramp for ramp druid" - heureka, these are the conclusions this impossible testing would bring, things you can already deduct by playing yourself.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Hearthstone Probability Guide [LoE UPDATE]

    I made a small program to calculate binomail probability of Arcane Missiles, Flamewakers and such.
    I remembered this thread, so i generalized it and made an output for anyone who would be interested to look up their chances on having lethal with X "missiles/jugles" Y targets on board and at least Z hits needed to land.

    • It doesn't count with one of the targets disapearing mid-shooting (minion dying) - it's not hard to account for when you do one calculation but it would be hell of a table/output - it's already big.
    • I made the output for 2-8 targets 1-10 shots and 1-shots dmg taken by wanted target
      it should cover all imaginable scenarios, if you want more - PM me or compile the program included in this message yourself :P
    • The numbers are for hitting AT LEAST X DMG on the target, if you want the exact chance to hit exact number of them on a target, I can include another output, or just compile it and print probability(1.0/targets,dmg,shots) every time instead of adding it to cm_prob.

    For example:
    You have 1xArcane Missiles and 1xFlamewaker on board.
    Your opponent has 2 minions.
    Your opponent has 4 HP, and you already pinged.

    So you want to know how likely it is that those missiles+flamewaker will kill him.
    So you look for 5 shots, 3 targets, 4dmg - (4.52675%, maybe save the spell for antonidas :D)

    THIS IS THE OUTPUT, it has almost 400 lines use ctrl+f if you want to find the combination you are interested in.

    number of shots, number of targets, at least X dmg will be done: probability in %

    1 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 50%
    1 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 33.3333%
    1 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 25%
    1 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 20%
    1 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 16.6667%
    1 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 14.2857%
    1 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 12.5%

    2 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 25%
    2 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 75%
    2 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 11.1111%
    2 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 55.5556%
    2 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 6.25%
    2 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 43.75%
    2 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 4%
    2 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 36%
    2 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 2.77778%
    2 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 30.5556%
    2 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 2.04082%
    2 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 26.5306%
    2 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 1.5625%
    2 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 23.4375%

    3 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 12.5%
    3 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 50%
    3 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 87.5%
    3 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 3.7037%
    3 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 25.9259%
    3 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 70.3704%
    3 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 1.5625%
    3 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 15.625%
    3 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 57.8125%
    3 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 0.8%
    3 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 10.4%
    3 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 48.8%
    3 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 0.462963%
    3 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 7.40741%
    3 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 42.1296%
    3 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 0.291545%
    3 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 5.53936%
    3 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 37.0262%
    3 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 0.195313%
    3 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 4.29688%
    3 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 33.0078%

    4 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 6.25%
    4 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 31.25%
    4 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 68.75%
    4 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 93.75%
    4 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 1.23457%
    4 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 11.1111%
    4 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 40.7407%
    4 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 80.2469%
    4 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 0.390625%
    4 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 5.07813%
    4 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 26.1719%
    4 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 68.3594%
    4 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 0.16%
    4 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 2.72%
    4 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 18.08%
    4 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 59.04%
    4 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 0.0771605%
    4 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 1.62037%
    4 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 13.1944%
    4 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 51.7747%
    4 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 0.0416493%
    4 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 1.04123%
    4 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 10.0375%
    4 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 46.0225%
    4 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 0.0244141%
    4 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 0.708008%
    4 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 7.88574%
    4 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 41.3818%

    5 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 3.125%
    5 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 18.75%
    5 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 50%
    5 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 81.25%
    5 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 96.875%
    5 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 0.411523%
    5 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 4.52675%
    5 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 20.9877%
    5 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 53.9095%
    5 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 86.8313%
    5 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0976562%
    5 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 1.5625%
    5 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 10.3516%
    5 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 36.7188%
    5 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 76.2695%
    5 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 0.032%
    5 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 0.672%
    5 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 5.792%
    5 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 26.272%
    5 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 67.232%
    5 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0128601%
    5 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 0.334362%
    5 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 3.54938%
    5 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 19.6245%
    5 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 59.8122%
    5 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0059499%
    5 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 0.184447%
    5 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 2.32641%
    5 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 15.1782%
    5 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 53.7336%
    5 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.00305176%
    5 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 0.109863%
    5 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 1.60522%
    5 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 12.0728%
    5 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 48.7091%

    6 shots, 2 targets, 6 dmg: 1.5625%
    6 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 10.9375%
    6 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 34.375%
    6 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 65.625%
    6 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 89.0625%
    6 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 98.4375%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 6 dmg: 0.137174%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 1.78326%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 10.0137%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 31.9616%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 64.8834%
    6 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 91.2209%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0244141%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 0.463867%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 3.75977%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 16.9434%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 46.6064%
    6 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 82.2021%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0064%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 0.16%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 1.696%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 9.888%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 34.464%
    6 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 73.7856%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 6 dmg: 0.00214335%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0664438%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 0.870199%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 6.22857%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 26.3224%
    6 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 66.5102%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 6 dmg: 0.000849986%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0314495%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 0.490442%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 4.16238%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 20.6861%
    6 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 60.3431%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 6 dmg: 0.00038147%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0164032%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 0.296783%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 2.91367%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 16.6523%
    6 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 55.1205%

    7 shots, 2 targets, 7 dmg: 0.78125%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 6 dmg: 6.25%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 22.6562%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 50%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 77.3437%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 93.75%
    7 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 99.2187%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 7 dmg: 0.0457247%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 6 dmg: 0.685871%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 4.52675%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 17.3297%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 42.9355%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 73.6626%
    7 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 94.1472%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00610352%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 6 dmg: 0.134277%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 1.28784%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 7.05566%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 24.3591%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 55.5054%
    7 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 86.6516%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00128%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 6 dmg: 0.03712%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 0.4672%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 3.3344%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 14.8032%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 42.3283%
    7 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 79.0285%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 7 dmg: 0.000357225%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0128601%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 0.200403%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 1.76326%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 9.57755%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 33.0204%
    7 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 72.0918%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 7 dmg: 0.000121427%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 6 dmg: 0.00522134%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0970198%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 1.015%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 6.52291%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 26.3514%
    7 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 66.0083%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 7 dmg: 4.76837e-05%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 6 dmg: 0.00238419%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.0514507%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 0.623894%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 4.63099%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 21.4608%
    7 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 60.7304%

    8 shots, 2 targets, 8 dmg: 0.390625%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 7 dmg: 3.51563%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 6 dmg: 14.4531%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 36.3281%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 63.6719%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 85.5469%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 96.4844%
    8 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 99.6094%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 8 dmg: 0.0152416%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 7 dmg: 0.259107%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 6 dmg: 1.96616%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 8.79439%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 25.865%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 53.1779%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 80.4908%
    8 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 96.0982%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 8 dmg: 0.00152588%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 7 dmg: 0.038147%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 6 dmg: 0.422668%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 2.7298%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 11.3815%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 32.1457%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 63.2919%
    8 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 89.9887%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 8 dmg: 0.000256%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 7 dmg: 0.008448%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 6 dmg: 0.123136%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 1.04064%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 5.62816%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 20.3082%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 49.6684%
    8 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 83.2228%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 8 dmg: 5.95374e-05%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00244103%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0441172%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 0.460879%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 3.06564%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 13.4847%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 39.5323%
    8 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 76.7432%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 8 dmg: 1.73467e-05%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 7 dmg: 0.000849986%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0183354%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.228161%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 1.80185%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 9.35555%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 32.0167%
    8 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 70.8643%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 8 dmg: 5.96046e-06%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 7 dmg: 0.000339746%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0085175%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.123006%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 1.12478%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 6.73472%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 26.3695%
    8 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 65.6391%

    9 shots, 2 targets, 9 dmg: 0.195312%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 8 dmg: 1.95313%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 7 dmg: 8.98438%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 6 dmg: 25.3906%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 50%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 74.6094%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 91.0156%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 98.0469%
    9 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 99.8047%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 9 dmg: 0.00508053%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 8 dmg: 0.09653%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 7 dmg: 0.828126%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 6 dmg: 4.24224%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 14.4846%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 34.9693%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 62.2822%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 85.6932%
    9 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 97.3988%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 9 dmg: 0.00038147%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 8 dmg: 0.0106812%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 7 dmg: 0.134277%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 6 dmg: 0.999451%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 4.89273%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 16.5726%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 39.9323%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 69.9661%
    9 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 92.4915%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 9 dmg: 5.12e-05%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 8 dmg: 0.0018944%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 7 dmg: 0.0313856%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 6 dmg: 0.306637%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 1.95814%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 8.56417%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 26.1802%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 56.3792%
    9 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 86.5782%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 9 dmg: 9.9229e-06%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 8 dmg: 0.000456454%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00938707%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 6 dmg: 0.113578%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 0.895006%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 4.80215%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 17.826%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 45.7341%
    9 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 80.6193%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 9 dmg: 2.47809e-06%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 8 dmg: 0.000136295%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 7 dmg: 0.0033479%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0483104%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.452973%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 2.88095%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 12.5929%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 37.5663%
    9 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 75.0265%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 9 dmg: 7.45058e-07%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 8 dmg: 4.76837e-05%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00136197%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0228286%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.248228%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 1.82602%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 9.18907%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 31.2782%
    9 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 69.9342%

    10 shots, 2 targets, 10 dmg: 0.0976562%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 9 dmg: 1.07422%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 8 dmg: 5.46875%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 7 dmg: 17.1875%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 6 dmg: 37.6953%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 5 dmg: 62.3047%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 4 dmg: 82.8125%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 3 dmg: 94.5313%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 2 dmg: 98.9258%
    10 shots, 2 targets, 1 dmg: 99.9023%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 10 dmg: 0.00169351%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 9 dmg: 0.0355637%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 8 dmg: 0.340395%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 7 dmg: 1.96616%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 6 dmg: 7.65635%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 5 dmg: 21.3128%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 4 dmg: 44.0736%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 3 dmg: 70.0859%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 2 dmg: 89.5951%
    10 shots, 3 targets, 1 dmg: 98.2658%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 10 dmg: 9.53674e-05%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 9 dmg: 0.00295639%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 8 dmg: 0.0415802%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 7 dmg: 0.350571%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 6 dmg: 1.97277%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 5 dmg: 7.81269%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 4 dmg: 22.4125%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 3 dmg: 47.4407%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 2 dmg: 75.5975%
    10 shots, 4 targets, 1 dmg: 94.3686%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 10 dmg: 1.024e-05%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 9 dmg: 0.00041984%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 8 dmg: 0.00779264%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 7 dmg: 0.0864358%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 6 dmg: 0.636938%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 5 dmg: 3.27935%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 4 dmg: 12.0874%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 3 dmg: 32.22%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 2 dmg: 62.419%
    10 shots, 5 targets, 1 dmg: 89.2626%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 10 dmg: 1.65382e-06%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 9 dmg: 8.43447e-05%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 8 dmg: 0.00194489%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 7 dmg: 0.0267521%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 6 dmg: 0.243816%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 5 dmg: 1.5462%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 4 dmg: 6.97278%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 3 dmg: 22.4773%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 2 dmg: 51.5483%
    10 shots, 6 targets, 1 dmg: 83.8494%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 10 dmg: 3.54013e-07%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 9 dmg: 2.15948e-05%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 8 dmg: 0.000595096%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00977112%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 6 dmg: 0.106119%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 5 dmg: 0.799827%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 4 dmg: 4.26836%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 3 dmg: 16.1605%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 2 dmg: 42.9178%
    10 shots, 7 targets, 1 dmg: 78.5942%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 10 dmg: 9.31323e-08%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 9 dmg: 6.61239e-06%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 8 dmg: 0.000211969%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 7 dmg: 0.00404529%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 6 dmg: 0.0510035%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 5 dmg: 0.445453%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 4 dmg: 2.74641%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 3 dmg: 11.9502%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 2 dmg: 36.1102%
    10 shots, 8 targets, 1 dmg: 73.6924%

     

    And this is the source for the program if anyone wants to play with it, it's c++. You should have no problem compiling it under any linux, it uses standart libraries. Windows don't have lgamma in math tho i think:

    #include <iostream>
    #include <math.h>

    #define MIN_SHOTS 1
    #define MAX_SHOTS 10
    #define MIN_TARGETS 2
    #define MAX_TARGETS 8
    #define MIN_DMG 1

    double probability(double P_success, int sucesses, int tries);//binomial probability

    using namespace std;

    int main()
    {
    double cm_prob;//cumulative binomial probability
    for(int shots=MIN_SHOTS;shots<=MAX_SHOTS;shots++)
    {
    for(int targets=MIN_TARGETS;targets<=MAX_TARGETS;targets++)
    {
    cm_prob=0.0;
    for(int dmg=shots;dmg>=MIN_DMG;dmg--)
    {
    cout<<shots<<" shots, "<<targets<<" targets, "<<dmg<<" dmg: ";
    cm_prob+=probability(1.0/targets,dmg,shots);
    cout<<cm_prob*100.0<<"%"<<endl;
    }
    }
    cout<<endl;
    }
    return 0;
    }

    double probability(double P_success, int successes, int tries)
    {
    double P_unsuccess=1.0-P_success;
    double non_successes=tries-successes;
    double temp = lgamma(successes + non_successes + 1.0);
    temp -= lgamma(non_successes + 1.0) + lgamma(successes + 1.0);
    temp += successes*log(P_success) + non_successes*log(P_unsuccess);
    return exp(temp);
    }

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Patron Warrior still alive after Warsong nerf

    It's dead because everything bellow T3 is dead, it's alive in same way malygos shaman is alive.

    I am looking towards Axe Flinger more than worgen for new warrior archetype.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • To post a comment, please login or register a new account.