• 8

    posted a message on Order of Jugglin'&Boomin', do we calculate RNG correctly?

    Hello, I noticed looking at streams and playing vs friends and ladder - that not everybody thinks about likelyhood of outcomes in RNG situations so much. Sure they remove minions if they want their Ragnaros to hit right target, but not everybody is giving thought to juggles and bombing from Doctor Boom Boom Bots.
    I hope this thread can bring discussion about statistics about what approach is correct for those who are interested and maybe some puzzling situations and what is the correct play. Best play is not obvious every time.
    I will start with example situation, what is the correct play and some math behind it. Try to go with your guts what would be your play and than click on spoiler to find out if your play is correct.

    Situation:
    If you think right play is obvious, find out if you are right and how much better that play is than others in spoiler below.

    IT IS YOUR TURN, you used your heropower to heal yourself already - Raptor is just your useless topdeck obviously.
    Your goal is to choose which one of 3 obvious lines of play is best (that means have lowest possible % of losing on board next turn, and win is obviously better than just surviving)
    boom
    (Yes, my MSPaint skill are 10/10 Kappa)

    Every possible play and proof which play is best in this situation (it will maybe suprise you):

    If your answer were to attack Slime with Boom Bot first - you were correct!
    HERE IS EXPLANATION AND PROOF (with just a little bit of basic math, don't worry even if you don't like math):

    There are 3 possible moves

    1. Attack slime with Doctor Boom followed by attacking 1/1 with Boom Bot.
    2. Attack slime with Doctor Boom followed by attacking 3/3 with Boom Bot.
    3. Attack slime with Boom Bot followed with hiting face for 7 if slime dies, killing slime with Dr.Boom if Earthen Ring dies (if not you are dead) or not doing anything cause boombot killed paladin.

    I will go trough every option and explain % chance to win/survive/lose every move gives.

    • ATTACK SLIME WITH BOOM BOT ----31.25% WIN----12.5% SURVIVE----56.25% LOSE----
      • 1/4 BOOM BOT HITS SLIME WITH EXPLOSION (1-4 damage) +25%win
      • 1/4 BOOM BOT HITS 1/1 RECRUIT +25%lose
      • 1/4 BOOM BOT HITS FACE
        • (1/4)*(1/4) HITS FOR 4 +6.25%win
        • (1/4)*(3/4) HITS FOR 1-3 +18.75%lose
      • 1/4 BOOM BOT HITS 3/3 EARTHEN RING
        • (1/4)*(1/2) HIST FOR 3-4 +12.5%survive
        • (1/4)*(1/2) HITS FOR 1-2 +12.5%lose

    • ATTACK SLIME WITH DOCTOR BOOM, ATTACK 1/1 WITH BOOM BOT ---12.5%WIN---25%SURVIVE---62.5%LOSE---
      • 1/2 BOOM BOT HITS FACE
        • (1/2)*(1/4) HITS FOR 4 +12.5%win
        • (1/2)*(3/4) HITS FOR 1-3 +37.5%lose
      • 1/2 BOOM BOT HITS 3/3
        • (1/2)*(1/2) HITS FOR 3-4 +25%survive
        • (1/2)*(1/2) HITS FOR 1-2 +25%lose

     

    • ATTACK SLIME WITH DOCTOR BOOM, ATTACK 3/3 WITH BOOM BOT ---8.33%WIN---25%SURVIVE---66.66%LOSE
      • 1/3 BOOM BOT HITS 1/1 +33.33%lose
      • 1/3 BOOM BOT HITS 3/2
        • (1/3)*(3/4) HITS FOR 2-4+25%survive
        • (1/3)*(1/4) HITS FOR 1 +8.33%lose
      • 1/3 BOOM BOT HITS FACE
        • (1/3)*(3/4) HITS FOR 1-3 +25%lose
        • (1/3)*(1/4) HITS FOR 4 +8.33%win

    If you have no trouble to make correct RNG play every time even if there is Nozdormu somehow - I am sorry for wasting your time if you have read that far, maybe share your take on interesting situations. If i made mistake anywhere, please let me know and if you have some interesting hearthstone-math situation you want to share or want me or others to analyze please contribute :)

    Thanks to player Bieftaki (EU) for helping me setup some screenshots.

    Cheers, Beesman

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on February 2015 Ranked Card Back Revealed: Lunar New Year
    Quote from Frankehh »

    ...or a new board would have have been good.

    Oh my god, can you imagine getting for example golden halfs of board for let's say multiple 12 wins with a class in arena (to give some love for arena players).
    That would be cool.

    Posted in: News
  • 6

    posted a message on Dr. Boom

    Make War Golem into a mech would be balanced enough, legendary should be stronger card to it's closest basic card comparison but not stronger in a sence it's straight up better in every situation - and i don't thing playing around MCTech really counts.

    Posted in: Dr. Boom
  • 1

    posted a message on February 2015 Ranked Card Back Revealed: Lunar New Year

    It's weird that I didn't enjoy Pandaria in wow that much but "Pandarian" cardbacks are best looking.

    Posted in: News
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