I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening.
I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening.
So you're saying its possible? There's always a chance it can happen. Are the odds in favor the other way? Sure.
You realize that for every game you didn't get the coin, your opponent did. It is impossible for this to be anythibg other than a 50/50 split. Just because the odds are low, doesn't mean that something nefarious is happening when you don't get your desired outcome.
I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening.
While that is true, consider this: If you flip a coin 3 times and it was heads every time, what is the chance that the fourth time will also be heads? (Spoiler alert: It's still 50%). Read up on the gambler's fallacy. Instances of chance are not influenced by earlier events.
"I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening."
I have studied this at university, if I recall correctly it's called St. Peterburg paradox, or maybe I was just high, whatever. Our brain logically tends to think the way you did, but 50% chance of getting something, it's ALWAYS 50% of getting something, no matter how many times you flip a coin.
If you go check Roulette colour result lists from casinos, you are going to notice it's not unusual to have results like yours with the coin.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Remember playing Control Shaman with Reincarnate shenanigans? No? It was fun, here's a refresher!
Guys, lol. Yes, I realize 14 is a small sample size and that if it is 50% chance of getting coin or not every turn you have a 50% chance. So in your oblique way of answering my question yes chance to get coin is still 50% and is not changed by win rate or anything, thanks.
The chance that you never get heads in four coin flips is, however, much lower.
The single flick of the coin is never affected, but "chain events" are. The chances that you throw heads eventually actually do go up whenever you don't flip heads, just because it's unlikely to never get heads.
Otherwise the chance to flip a coin a 100 times and only getting tails would be 50 %.
You're approaching my post from the wrong direction. I never said he was wrong in his calculation of his absurd low chance % for a long streak of winning(or losing) cointosses, I only suggested another way to look at it.
No matter how many times you flipped a coin and got heads, the chance to get heads on the next flip is always 50%. You might want to follow my suggestion to read up on the gambler's fallacy if you have a hard time grasping this.
Ps. I've worked as a dealer in casino's and you don't want to know how many people go broke on this misunderstanding.
Interesting, I have an OT question then :D
If Hearthstone was allowed in casinos, would people who play Midrange Shaman be beaten to a bloody pulp from security as they do with people always betting on Red/Black at the roulette or counting cards at Blackjack?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Remember playing Control Shaman with Reincarnate shenanigans? No? It was fun, here's a refresher!
What is this (No/yes column shows whether I started with the coin or not):
14 games 1 coin, 12 games in a row no coin.
Is coin not 50/50 anymore or was I just unlucky?
I ask because I just started playing again after a ~6 month break.
Random chance, the poster above explained it with a coin. You could go 20 games with out a coin.
I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening.
You realize that for every game you didn't get the coin, your opponent did. It is impossible for this to be anythibg other than a 50/50 split. Just because the odds are low, doesn't mean that something nefarious is happening when you don't get your desired outcome.
What if your opponent also plays his 12th game with no coin.. Who will be most likely to get it then ? :)
"I realize that. but if you understand probability you know that each succeeding chance is multiplied by the previous. i.e. (1/2)^12 = 0.00024% chance of this happening."
I have studied this at university, if I recall correctly it's called St. Peterburg paradox, or maybe I was just high, whatever.
Our brain logically tends to think the way you did, but 50% chance of getting something, it's ALWAYS 50% of getting something, no matter how many times you flip a coin.
If you go check Roulette colour result lists from casinos, you are going to notice it's not unusual to have results like yours with the coin.
Remember playing Control Shaman with Reincarnate shenanigans? No? It was fun, here's a refresher!
Guys, lol. Yes, I realize 14 is a small sample size and that if it is 50% chance of getting coin or not every turn you have a 50% chance. So in your oblique way of answering my question yes chance to get coin is still 50% and is not changed by win rate or anything, thanks.
The place of OP post..
http://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/28947-group-therapy-need-to-blow-off-steam-mega-salty
It is very unusual to go 1 for 12 on a 50/50, but so is picking the right six number out of 64 - it happens.
Free to try and find a game, dealing cards for sorrow, cards for pain.
If Hearthstone was allowed in casinos, would people who play Midrange Shaman be beaten to a bloody pulp from security as they do with people always betting on Red/Black at the roulette or counting cards at Blackjack?
Remember playing Control Shaman with Reincarnate shenanigans? No? It was fun, here's a refresher!