I even did try a deck with a Flare... you simply don't draw it ^^ and their deck is way faster, than the Midrange Hunter... :/ it was like a 20-80 matchup for me ^^
Um.. by turn 6 it's equally likely that you have flare as them having MC. If you played first, that's 6 + 3 = 9/30 but with 2 cards, so 18/30 chance that you have it by turn 6. Plus the Mulligan factor, which makes it basically 23/30 chance. So in reality, if you go first, you are close to having it 80% of the time if you mulligan for it.