Hearthpwn

Quote from Anarchy1 >>

Quote from Poghy >>

Quote from Anarchy1 >>

Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99

 Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.

The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.

Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.

 The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice.   Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did  is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug. 

Quote from Poghy >>

Quote from Anarchy1 >>

 

 I didnt proof any bug because there is a chance that OP is just unlucky.

But when it comes to calculate the odds I am right. Maybe you are not familiar with the study of probalibity but chaining events like this results a probability that I have mentioned. So its very unlikely but it could happen.

BTW you can chain the odds of winning the lottery but its so low that on the long run it doesnt matter.

Quote from Anarchy1 >>

Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99

 Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.

The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.

Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.