I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.
On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.
It's just a simple simulation. None of the numbers in my post do anything other than illustrate two things:
1. Even if you are good at this game, getting from D5 to legend can take a ton of games.
2. Two equally good players can have very different experiences getting from D5 to legend.
I could have just written those two points, but I think the numbers are illustrative. You can definitely calculate a standard deviation on average number of games required to get to legend. I took into account that you can't fall below D5.
Finally, I never said "55% winrate skilled players", so you probably shouldn't put that in quotes.
I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.
On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.
If you have a 55% win rate, on average it will take 117 games to climb from D5 to legend.
BUT, the standard deviation on that is huge. A decent # of 55% win rate players will get there in 20 games, and about the same number of similarly skilled players will require over 400 games. So luck is the largest determining factor in the grind. Of course, those who get lucky and get there in 20 games will naturally believe that they are extremely skilled.
With a 51% win rate, the average goes up to 220 games, and the standard deviation is more than double.
You are wrong.
First of all, you are mixing up the cause and effect. There is no such thing as "55% winrate skilled players". The winrate is the effect of your deck, skill and luck combined, its not the cause.
Secondly, you cant apply standard deviation in a situation when winning is always getting you a star but losing doesnt always make you lose one. A good winstreak can get you to legend faster for sure, but a bad losing streak cant get you below diamond 5. If you cant climb to legend in 400 games from diamond 5 then there is probably no amount of luck that can get you there in 20 games with the same deck and skill.
https://hearthstone-decks.net/even-hunter-10-legend-corbettgames/
I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.
On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.
You are wrong.
First of all, you are mixing up the cause and effect. There is no such thing as "55% winrate skilled players". The winrate is the effect of your deck, skill and luck combined, its not the cause.
Secondly, you cant apply standard deviation in a situation when winning is always getting you a star but losing doesnt always make you lose one. A good winstreak can get you to legend faster for sure, but a bad losing streak cant get you below diamond 5. If you cant climb to legend in 400 games from diamond 5 then there is probably no amount of luck that can get you there in 20 games with the same deck and skill.
I have success with Reno secret mage (last month I got legend with it) but regular secret mage is probably better and definitely cheaper.