I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
I believe 1/16 would be two missiles, not three in my example.
First missile has 100% chance to hit a minion. Second and third missile each have 25% chance to also hit that minion. So the probability is
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
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Your math is right in the case where you call the target beforehand.
The probability of hitting the same random target out of two possible targets three times is 25%.
First missile has 100% chance to hit a minion. Second and third missile each have 25% chance to also hit that minion. So the probability is
1*.25²=.0625
Or 1/16.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...