Well If you take it as a unanimous and absolute fact, that by turn 3 you will play a specific card,like Muster for Battle or Animal Companion, considering the mulligans and the cards cycled the chances are quite high you will play the card you want (given you run 2 of it). But that should give you a huge advantage as well since you know it in advance, so you can counter it. Personally when ever I am playing Mage I take it for granted that it will appear and usually make a huge gain with a Counterspell
P.S. I f I am not mistaken and your only draw mechanic is your normal draw, if you play first, by turn 3 there is ~43% chance to draw it, and if you play second, it's ~52%. But again the math doesn't matter since you know it by experience. Just brace for it and try to counter it.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Never BM. Unless they BM you first. Then you always BM.
Those two cards (heretoafter known as THE CARD) are so powerful that you assume that if they draw the card anytime between their first draw, mulliganing, and turn 3, they are going to keep it. By that assumption, we should calculate the odds of them NOT drawing THE CARD with each card that gets turned over. We will assume the run two of THE CARD.
The odds the first card is not THE CARD... 28/30 Odds the second card is not THE CARD... 27/29 Odds the third card is not THE CARD... 26/28
At this point, without the mulligan, the odds of them NOT having THE CARD, is 80%. So they've had a 1/5 chance of drawing the card without doing anything. But let's say, hypothetically, they mulligan away all 3 cards because, odds are, in mulliganing they can get a one or two drop but that turn 3 THE CARD is so powerful The odds the first mulligan card is not THE CARD... 25/27 The odds the second mulligan card is not THE CARD... 24/26 The odds of the third mulligan card is not THE CARD... 23/25
Mulligan is over. Now the odds they don't have THE CARD are 63.4% (so they have around a 1/3 chance to have THE CARD) before the game has even started.
But now that the mulligan is over, the three cards they threw away are available to be drawn. And in our scenario they haven't hit that around 1/3 chance they already have THE CARD. You haven't even played a turn yet. So... The odds the first drawn card isn't THE CARD... 25/27
You go and the they make their second draw. The odds the second drawn card isn't THE CARD... 24/26.
You go and they make their third and final (for this scenario) draw. The odds the third drawn card isn't THE CARD... 23/25. The odds they haven't drawn THE CARD... 49.9%. So it's about an even 50% chance they have drawn the card if they go first and mulligan everything away.
Let's assume the same scenario and they are going second (and thus they get an extra card). Doing the same math as before their odds of NOT having THE CARD to... Coin out on turn 2... 45.1% Play on turn 3... 41.3%
So there you go, there is a coinflip they have THE CARD on curve if they go first and there is, about, a 3/5 chance they have THE CARD on curve if they go second. Maybe there is something wrong with my methodology but it seems to me that you have likely run into some bad luck, Rushino. Likely you've been going first a lot and just had bad RNG. Even if I was wrong with my math and had better than a 4/5 of having THE CARD by turn 3, you've still had a lot of bad luck. It'll turn around. Hearthstone is a game that's all about the Law of Large Numbers. Play enough games and the bad luck always evens out.
Games rigged. Guarantee you take a 24 hour break, come back, and you'd have 24 paladins not get muster. The stats generally do work out in this game (Atleast in relation to card draw). It's the variance thats really messed up. Generally after 5-6 games I know whether I should continue or not based off the math. If all 5-6 get their perfect 1-2-3 or whatever, I stop playing for 24 hours. Come back, and magically can climb 5 ranks or so. Repeat until legend. HS isn't so much knowing the odds as it is knowing the sick variance built into the game
But, someone still believe that this game works with pure and noble statistics? It has many manipulated variations and I have accepted it, although I'm not agree.
Like when you have changed your deck playing on ranked, and after 3-4 matches, your pairing isn't really a random player of a similar rank, is a player of a similar rank that have more chances to defeat you. It's like if you are playing a tournament, you're winning, and instead of playing with the people with more points, the organizers search your worst pairings to play against them.
Yeah, I wonder sometimes. I tend to go on streaks where Im mowing people down for like 5-6 games in a row and then my next 5-6 games are against my worst matchups and I get killed. Hmmm.... wtf?