Whether it's Arena or Constructed I can't think of the last game where the opposing Warrior didn't have a Fiery War Axe in their starting hand. Anyone know if there's a statistic on how often they get it?
You can't really obtain such information, because even if they get one, they can opt not to play it on turn 2. Of course if you just HAVE TO pay attention to the cards they played to determine if the Fiery War Axe is one of the card in their starting hand, well okay I guess?
I believe you can also calculate the chance of a person to draw Fiery War Axe with probability calculation. Now, I suck at mathematics, so don't ask me how to. But there should be a mathematical approach to find it, instead of trying to obtain any statistics.
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"Are you not entertained?! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!"
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity." - Maximus Decimus Meridius
It's really up there because warriors tend to hard mulligan for it anyway and always keep it and if they don't have war axe they're gonna keep death's bite. I don't really know the math behind it but I guess it'd go something like this assuming they had coin.
4 cards to choose from already at a 4/30(13%) chance for either axe or death's bite.
4 options to mulligan making this 8/30(27%) chance.
Then you take into consideration your first draw 9/30(around 30%)
Though I'm probably wrong lol.
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"In this world where time is your enemy, it is my greatest ally. This grand game of life that you think you play in fact plays you. To that I say... Let the games begin!" - Nefarian
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away. But we all know you can, so after the mulligan you have to reset a partial-propabiltiy of the first card to 28/30...
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% (coin) and 44,71% (without coin)
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away.
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% and 44,71%
As far as I know, you can't draw the same cards you just mulliganed away. I did however make a mistake because the calculations assume you can't draw them on turn 1 or 2. So this should be correct then:
Without coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*26/28*25/27 = 0,456 (45,6%)
With coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*24/26*23/25 = 0,55 (55%)
Oh man, serious calculating going on here. Thanks everyone. Just seems like if you get any decent 1 or 2 drop start the warrior always drops the Axe and ruins your day. Those numbers were actually higher than my sarcastic question was anticipating.
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away.
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% and 44,71%
As far as I know, you can't draw the same cards you just mulliganed away. I did however make a mistake because the calculations assume you can't draw them on turn 1 or 2. So this should be correct then:
Without coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*26/28*25/27 = 0,456 (45,6%)
With coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*24/26*23/25 = 0,55 (55%)
You can. I've mulliganed a legendary only to re-draw it in mulligan phase.
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away.
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% and 44,71%
As far as I know, you can't draw the same cards you just mulliganed away. I did however make a mistake because the calculations assume you can't draw them on turn 1 or 2. So this should be correct then:
Without coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*26/28*25/27 = 0,456 (45,6%)
With coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*24/26*23/25 = 0,55 (55%)
You can. I've mulliganed a legendary only to re-draw it in mulligan phase.
In that case it was a bug. I was being modest when I said "as far as I know", I know that you can't get the cards back you just mulliganed away. Unless there is a bug of course, but no such bug as actually ever been confirmed to my knowledge.
Hrm. Looked it up, guess you can't. I swear I just mulliganed my chillmaw and got a chillmaw a few minutes ago...
Well, good to know. Embarrassing that I've been legend nearly every season since I started and didn't know that. Guess it wouldn't have changed my process much anyway.
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away.
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% and 44,71%
As far as I know, you can't draw the same cards you just mulliganed away. I did however make a mistake because the calculations assume you can't draw them on turn 1 or 2. So this should be correct then:
Without coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*26/28*25/27 = 0,456 (45,6%)
With coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*24/26*23/25 = 0,55 (55%)
You can. I've mulliganed a legendary only to re-draw it in mulligan phase.
In that case it was a bug. I was being modest when I said "as far as I know", I know that you can't get the cards back you just mulliganed away. Unless there is a bug of course, but no such bug as actually ever been confirmed to my knowledge.
mmmmhhh,.... you are right. I could have sworn that you can get back the same cards. (In magic f.e. it works that way by shuffeling it into your deck before drawing). learned something new...
Trendy little followers - why are you all saying Kappa? Did some supercool streamer say it and you all want to be like him so you are saying it too? Original thought.. far better than just repeating what others do.
And for the OP. how the hell are we supposed to have those stats?? Answer that.
Trendy little followers - why are you all saying Kappa? Did some supercool streamer say it and you all want to be like him so you are saying it too? Original thought.. far better than just repeating what others do.
And for the OP. how the hell are we supposed to have those stats?? Answer that.
If you had bothered to actually read the thread, instead of ranting about other users, you would have noticed that the statistical probability the OP asked for, has actually been provided.
Whether it's Arena or Constructed I can't think of the last game where the opposing Warrior didn't have a Fiery War Axe in their starting hand. Anyone know if there's a statistic on how often they get it?
Same thing seems to be happening with Flame cannon with mages since it was released, every single game.
about 40%
You can't really obtain such information, because even if they get one, they can opt not to play it on turn 2. Of course if you just HAVE TO pay attention to the cards they played to determine if the Fiery War Axe is one of the card in their starting hand, well okay I guess?
I believe you can also calculate the chance of a person to draw Fiery War Axe with probability calculation. Now, I suck at mathematics, so don't ask me how to. But there should be a mathematical approach to find it, instead of trying to obtain any statistics.
"Are you not entertained?! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!"
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity." - Maximus Decimus Meridius
It's really up there because warriors tend to hard mulligan for it anyway and always keep it and if they don't have war axe they're gonna keep death's bite. I don't really know the math behind it but I guess it'd go something like this assuming they had coin.
4 cards to choose from already at a 4/30(13%) chance for either axe or death's bite.
4 options to mulligan making this 8/30(27%) chance.
Then you take into consideration your first draw 9/30(around 30%)
Though I'm probably wrong lol.
"In this world where time is your enemy, it is my greatest ally. This grand game of life that you think you play in fact plays you. To that I say... Let the games begin!" - Nefarian
The statistics is 50%. It's either they have it or not. kappa
premise: if you mulligan hard only for the axe then the propabilities are statisticwise:
with coin: 48,47%
without coin: 39,90%
The felt propability if you play against warrior: 99,999% ;)
That can't be correct. Unless my brain caught fire, this should be correct:
Without coin: 47% (1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23 = 0,47)
With coin: 56,3% (1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*20/22*19/21 = 0,563)
Assuming hard mulligan and chance they have it by turn 2.
@hebbe84: your calculation whould be only correct if you couldn't draw the same cards again which you just mulliganed away. But we all know you can, so after the mulligan you have to reset a partial-propabiltiy of the first card to 28/30...
if you calculate on turn 2 its: 52,60% (coin) and 44,71% (without coin)
I played lots of control warrior games and I get my fair share of hands where I don't have fiery win axe and have to play armorsmith turn 2
As far as I know, you can't draw the same cards you just mulliganed away. I did however make a mistake because the calculations assume you can't draw them on turn 1 or 2. So this should be correct then:
Without coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*26/28*25/27 = 0,456 (45,6%)
With coin: 1-28/30*27/29*26/28*25/27*24/26*23/25*22/24*21/23*24/26*23/25 = 0,55 (55%)
Oh man, serious calculating going on here. Thanks everyone. Just seems like if you get any decent 1 or 2 drop start the warrior always drops the Axe and ruins your day. Those numbers were actually higher than my sarcastic question was anticipating.
You can. I've mulliganed a legendary only to re-draw it in mulligan phase.
In that case it was a bug. I was being modest when I said "as far as I know", I know that you can't get the cards back you just mulliganed away. Unless there is a bug of course, but no such bug as actually ever been confirmed to my knowledge.
Hrm. Looked it up, guess you can't. I swear I just mulliganed my chillmaw and got a chillmaw a few minutes ago...
Well, good to know. Embarrassing that I've been legend nearly every season since I started and didn't know that. Guess it wouldn't have changed my process much anyway.
mmmmhhh,.... you are right. I could have sworn that you can get back the same cards. (In magic f.e. it works that way by shuffeling it into your deck before drawing). learned something new...
soruce: http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Mulligan
Trendy little followers - why are you all saying Kappa? Did some supercool streamer say it and you all want to be like him so you are saying it too? Original thought.. far better than just repeating what others do.
And for the OP. how the hell are we supposed to have those stats?? Answer that.
If you had bothered to actually read the thread, instead of ranting about other users, you would have noticed that the statistical probability the OP asked for, has actually been provided.
We have the same way of thinking xD
EXODIA Obliterate !
Easy there. I was hoping that this would generate a discussion of frustration of facing up against this.