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oh really? i opened 40 packs (last time i bought) and i got 4 legendaries so i thought its about 1 every 10 cards.
When I buy packs I get lots of legendaries. When I spend hard-earned gold on packs I get nothing. Blizzard wants me to buy packs.
Greetings traveler.
Really? It feels more like 1.33% chance than 1% chance. And once i got two legendaries from one pack, though only one was potentially useful (well, not really, i guess, because i don't even remember what it was), and another one was 2nd Nat Pagle.
Hmm, so about one in two thousand packs has two legendaries? I guess a lot of old-timers got it at least once. Some people have like five thousand arena matches etc.
Just last night I got ANOTHER malygos (already have it) which was disappointing but I disenchanted it and had enough dust to craft Dr. Boom
Yes but then you end up stick in Gambler's fallacy and assume that if you flipped a coin 99 times and got tails that you MUST get heads since you now have less than a .000001% chance of getting 100 tails in a row.
The PROBLEM is that you already got the 99 tails, which is where most of that <.000001% chance comes from. Thus, after 99 tails, the chance of getting ONE MORE tails is ..50%
The trails are independent of each other. You cannot look at the past chances and judge future chances from them.
As such, when you are just sitting at 0 flips, the chance of getting heads once in 5 flips is 99.6%. However, if you got 4 tails in a row then you've already beat out the .06% chance of doing so. On your 5th flip, you're at 1 flip to get heads or tails which is back to 50%.
It's messy to think about. I understand it and it still makes my head swim. But that's statistics. DO NOT EVER COMBINE PAST RESULTS WITH FUTURE ACTIONS ON INDEPENDENT TRIALS.
If you didn't get a legendary in 23 attempts, then your next pack will have a 5% chance of getting a legendary. Even if you didn't get a legendary in 500000 packs, you still have only a 5% chance of getting a legendary. It's insane to not get a legendary in 500001 packs but well, you already kicked reality to the curb and made the impossible possible with the first 500000 packs. After that, 1 more is child's play.
(so is it better to open large batches of packs instead ofone at a time?)
technically nope, but given how we tend to lump large trials as if it was one big trial and, thus, treal 1 pack opening and a large 20 pack opening with almost the same mentality, it's better for your mind to open large groups of packs.
Just don't think "just one more" if you fail.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
That seems to be opposite for me. :P
You can't take the event in isolation though!
That was my whole point.
By what authority are you able to take an event outside of the universe?
Hello OP, let me help you.
Probability of getting a Legendary in a pack =~ 5%
Number of packs opened = 22
Formula for getting a legendary at this point is simple, F(x) = 1-(probability of Legendary)^(number of packs opened)
1-(.05)^22 = .676 or 67.6%
This means you have a 67.6% chance of getting a pack in 22 tries, and a 32.4% chance of not getting one so far, roughly.
Doesn't sound very unlucky to me. But that's for you to decide.
I didn't read all of this, just the first bit. and skimmed the rest. I don't disagree with you, in fact I made the same points earlier in the thread. I was simply clarifying that a large sample size does indeed lead to a greater probability of getting a legendary.
"I'm due for a heads because I got all tails" is a fallacy, sure, but the notion that you are just as likely to get heads in a single flip as 10 is just as bad.
"Is it better to open a bunch of packs rather than one at a time? nope"
While 10 packs at once may be no better than 10 individual, 10 total is still better than 5 total.
My luckiest draw was 3 legendaries from 15 packs. My unluckiest draw was 0 legendaries from 20 packs (happened twice). My luckiest draw per pack was 2 legendaries + 1 epic in the same pack.
The odds do not change with opening more packs. That being said however, I have noticed a small oddity when it comes to opening packs:
It seems to me that once a pack contains a legendary, on average the other cards in the same pack will be of a higher quality. Might just be some bad bias, but most of my packs and most of the packs my friends opened (along with streamers I watched opening packs) had multiple rare or better cards in the packs that contained legendaries. I play this game since closed beta, I opened around 200 packs so far, and watched at least 3 times that being opened by others, only once did I see a 1x legendary + 4x common cards from the same pack, which is a bit odd :S
I had opened 24 packs after the GvG release without a Legendary. Then, I got 3 out of the next 30 or so packs. Given enough time (packs) statistics will even out for you :-)
In my time playing Hearthstone I've opened about $150 worth of packs, the Legendary's I pulled were. Sneeds Old Shredder, King Mukla, Al'Akir, Nozdormu and Malorne, stop complaining.
"I think that paladin has the highest chances of dealingwith this meta with auchanai circle, lightbomb, shadow madness and the ability to heal strong taunts" -rabbitme234
is $150 a lot?
Well, that's not right, is it. The REAL chances of getting a legendary in a pack are not 50/50. It's right that you either do or dont, but there is a lower chance of getting a rarer card simply because that's how the game works. Say you are to roll three dice, if you get three sixes you get a legendary, if you dont you get a common. Either you get a legendary or you don't, but the chances aren't 50/50
More simple-minded than simple, really. You should buy a lottery ticket - I hear you'll either win, or you won't win, which means you have a 50% chance of winning! You could be a millionaire!
the
houseblizzard always winsI hear statistics are a thing.
I think I rekt the RNG because I got 3 legendaries and 1 epic in 4 packs.
It's not much but the legendary's I did get were all awful or decent ones for classes I don't use
"I think that paladin has the highest chances of dealingwith this meta with auchanai circle, lightbomb, shadow madness and the ability to heal strong taunts" -rabbitme234
There is pattern that if you dont get a single legendary in 39 packs, you have to get it in the 40th pack. I opening 50 packs and got only one fckng legendary in exactly 40th pack(unplayable warlock quest), so yeah.. 22 packs 0 legendary is pretty unlucky but i think nothing special. And the thing is i experience these with my friends also(they had almost no legendaries in packs). maybe blizzard screwed up some pack legendary ods.