Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none only 4 mediocre epics and a couple o golds :(, is anyone Unluckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds.
Odds are ~1/100 cards for a legendary, so around 20 packs. That doesn't mean you are guaranteed to get a legendary in every 20 packs though--rather it means on average you will.
Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none onky mediocre epics :(, is anyone Un luckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds
The odds of a legendary being in your next pack is still about 1:20. That doesn't change based on the number of packs you've bought previously.
Coincidentally I opened 22 packs today as well, no legends. This is pretty normal.. I'd still say I was lucky since I picked up 4+ epics and 3 golden cards. I'll be able to craft a legend which is nice.
I remember reading that you have like an 88% chance for a card to be a common, 8% chance for a rare, 3% for an epic and 1% for a legendary per card. This doesn't account for the guaranteed rare or better that comes in a pack.
Another way to view it is, 20 packs nets you 100 cards. On average you should walk away with:
68 commons
8 rares +20
3 epics
1 legendary
Now obviously these numbers will vary considerably from person to person but you can use it as a guideline to consider where you stand compared to an averaged curve. For instance, if you open 20 packs and don't get a legendary but walk away with 10 epics, that's still very good.
The way it works out is that you were likely to get 1 legendary in your packs. The problem is that your sample size is small. The larger the sample size, the more accurate your 20/packs = 1 legendary would be.
i think if you buy a higher amount of packs in bulk, you should receive more guarantees, rather than just the typical "at least 1 rare per pack" but maybe that's a bit too much
The way it works out is that you were likely to get 1 legendary in your packs. The problem is that your sample size is small. The larger the sample size, the more accurate your 20/packs = 1 legendary would be.
You say that but it actually does increase. I know...I know...you've studied statistics for 50 years or something and have published work in game theory...
But the chance of not getting a legendary does in fact decrease over time, even if the chance per pack remains exactly the same because the probability of not getting one after X+1 packs becomes less and less likely.
The chance of you getting no legendaries after a million packs is less than the chance of you not getting one after 22, so between now and then, you chance to get a legendary will increase.
You will get your legendaries soon OP, Insha'allah
Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none only 4 mediocre epics and a couple o golds :(, is anyone Unluckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds.
Odds are ~1/100 cards for a legendary, so around 20 packs. That doesn't mean you are guaranteed to get a legendary in every 20 packs though--rather it means on average you will.
The odds of a legendary being in your next pack is still about 1:20. That doesn't change based on the number of packs you've bought previously.
Ooooh, very pity...
Coincidentally I opened 22 packs today as well, no legends. This is pretty normal.. I'd still say I was lucky since I picked up 4+ epics and 3 golden cards. I'll be able to craft a legend which is nice.
I opened about 50 packs when GvG was new and got only 1 legendary(Gazlowe).
I remember reading that you have like an 88% chance for a card to be a common, 8% chance for a rare, 3% for an epic and 1% for a legendary per card. This doesn't account for the guaranteed rare or better that comes in a pack.
Another way to view it is, 20 packs nets you 100 cards. On average you should walk away with:
Now obviously these numbers will vary considerably from person to person but you can use it as a guideline to consider where you stand compared to an averaged curve. For instance, if you open 20 packs and don't get a legendary but walk away with 10 epics, that's still very good.
Hope this helps.
I once had a patch of 37 pack openings with no legendary drops, a mix of classic and gvg, hope this make you feel better.
The way it works out is that you were likely to get 1 legendary in your packs. The problem is that your sample size is small. The larger the sample size, the more accurate your 20/packs = 1 legendary would be.
Welcome to RNG!
Only got 4 epics :P oh well the RNG Gods weren't kind to me today :(
nice info
The odds never change, it's always ~5% of getting a legendary from a pack.
I opened one pack from getting the "watch a friend win" quest and there was a Baron Geddon in there.
So that means I stole your luck. It's math. Thanks for your luck.
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I opened 20 pack with no legendary.but the next day I got it
i think if you buy a higher amount of packs in bulk, you should receive more guarantees, rather than just the typical "at least 1 rare per pack" but maybe that's a bit too much
Exactly! Someone took a science class.
Correct
You say that but it actually does increase.
I know...I know...you've studied statistics for 50 years or something and have published work in game theory...
But the chance of not getting a legendary does in fact decrease over time, even if the chance per pack remains exactly the same because the probability of not getting one after X+1 packs becomes less and less likely.
The chance of you getting no legendaries after a million packs is less than the chance of you not getting one after 22, so between now and then, you chance to get a legendary will increase.
You will get your legendaries soon OP, Insha'allah
You trolls OpieOP Kappa