Hey guys DeeSquared here voicing a rather controversial opinion. Since the start of GvG I have ripped about 20 packs of cards and I currently counted in my collection that I have 65 total cards from the new expansion. That means that over a third of the cards I get from packs are Duplicates! Now before people start pointing fingers I just want to point out the following statistics:
Of the new cards I have opened I have:
Common x 44
Rare x 19
Epic x 1
Legendary x 0
I just don't believe that the pack system can be random if 1/3 of my cards are duplicates. I am curious if anyone else is having similar experience. Now I don't really know if Blizzard even has to address this issue being that it is there game, but if my speak frankly its a very sleazy thing for them to implement in their game. let me know what you guys have experienced!
Assuming you opened only GvG packs (unclear from your post), each of those 20 packs will give you 3-4 Commons on average. And in the GvG set, there aren't nearly as many Commons as the Classic set.
In summation: many Common duplicates.
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Feel free to add me if you play on NA! iMPose#1429
I get that, also good eye on the card count i guess s I had even more doubles then I originally thought. I just find it hard to believe that when I'm still missing 30common cards that I still get excess cards. Also I have gotten a lot of rare duplicates as well. I guess I should also c clarify I wrote duplicates but what I really mean is cards that I already have two of.
I get that GvG is a smaller release I'm not trying to argue that, I just find it hard to swallow when I open a pack containing all cards that I already have when I have maybe around half the expansion. Being a player that has only spent money on NAX I open a pack maybe once every two days, Its very frustrating. I think that's a reasonable stance no?
I get that GvG is a smaller release I'm not trying to argue that, I just find it hard to swallow when I open a pack containing all cards that I already have when I have maybe around half the expansion. Being a player that has only spent money on NAX I open a pack maybe once every two days, Its very frustrating. I think that's a reasonable stance no?
It is a reasonable stance, I have open 6 packs and have already DE 3 cards.
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F2P players are not stingy or poor, we are cost efficient.
Playing casually these days (work), always happy to talk strategy and deck building.
I am commenting on my experience, As I have already stated over a third of the cards I have opened just turn straight into dust. 20 packs is just a number. Irrespective at this as of this moment 10/11 people have had similar experiences. Lets call that 20 packs per person, so in 200 packs people have experience a similar issue.
There's only 80 total commons (2 of each). If you have about half, then the chance of getting a card you already have is about 1/2, given that you roll that chance 3-4 times each pack, you are looking at a pretty high chance that one of those cards is one you already have.
As others have mentioned, this is a result of there being so few commons compared to their pack rarity. 40 out of 120 is 33% of the expansion while the rate of getting commons is 60-80%
Also there was a big thread about this already the ratio of card rarities is a bit off in GvG since it's a smaller set with different relative numbers in comparison to the Classic set and since the chance of getting a certain rarity hasn't changed you end up getting - relatively - more commons and since there aren't as many commons you get a lot of doubles.
Pretty much this.
Now if others midread it the way I did at first, to clerify:
The CHANCE of getting certain rarities has not changed. It's still 1% chance per card to get a legendary (thus 5% per pack).
However, due to the fact that there's less commons and more higher rarities in relation to the amount of cards (haven't checked if it's due ot more epics or legendaries or what not) it means your going to hit that satiruation point, the point where yo ustart seeing more duplicates.
The BIGGER reason for seeing duplicates faster is the fact that there's about half as many cards in this set. So if you hit duplicate ville at 40 packs, you'll see it in GvG at around 20 packs.
So while a small bit of the dupping is due to the larger number of high rarities to commons, the BIGGER reasons is just that this is a smaller set than Classic.
Its a classic example of the Birthday Problem (the results of which surprise me to this day).
On top of that theres also Survivor Bias, users are likely to report stories of extreme good and bad luck over others. So even if you are an outlier (too much calculation required to work out the exact odds), the logical conclusion is not that the process is biased towards duplicates (i.e. its much more likely you were just unlucky).
I am commenting on my experience, As I have already stated over a third of the cards I have opened just turn straight into dust. 20 packs is just a number. Irrespective at this as of this moment 10/11 people have had similar experiences. Lets call that 20 packs per person, so in 200 packs people have experience a similar issue.
Well in fact in 100 persons there is probably one person without any duplicates and with 5 legendary cards. Random is not fair but random. Only in large sample sizes it balance to a predictable curve.
Very interesting calculator. I do agree that statistically I would be considered unlucky. At the same time though I feel that in the first 20 packs that I open the odds should be in my favor not to open up packs all containing cards I already have. That's what prompted me to write this thread. I mean even concerning common cards there are still 14 cards that I dont even have a single copy of. I do understand that the way this expansion is and all the ratios etc, it just frustrates me after saving up gold for an arean (over a two day period) that my efforts are rewarded with cards I have no use for.
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Hey guys DeeSquared here voicing a rather controversial opinion. Since the start of GvG I have ripped about 20 packs of cards and I currently counted in my collection that I have 65 total cards from the new expansion. That means that over a third of the cards I get from packs are Duplicates! Now before people start pointing fingers I just want to point out the following statistics:
Of the new cards I have opened I have:
Common x 44
Rare x 19
Epic x 1
Legendary x 0
I just don't believe that the pack system can be random if 1/3 of my cards are duplicates. I am curious if anyone else is having similar experience. Now I don't really know if Blizzard even has to address this issue being that it is there game, but if my speak frankly its a very sleazy thing for them to implement in their game. let me know what you guys have experienced!
Random man.
I opened 40 packs got 0 legends.
Opened another 40 packs a week later got 4 legends.
Opened 1 pack i bought yesterday after completing quests, got 1 legendary.
Assuming you opened only GvG packs (unclear from your post), each of those 20 packs will give you 3-4 Commons on average. And in the GvG set, there aren't nearly as many Commons as the Classic set.
In summation: many Common duplicates.
Feel free to add me if you play on NA! iMPose#1429
There are only 120 cards, you would get more doubles opening GvG then classic
I get that, also good eye on the card count i guess s I had even more doubles then I originally thought. I just find it hard to believe that when I'm still missing 30common cards that I still get excess cards. Also I have gotten a lot of rare duplicates as well. I guess I should also c clarify I wrote duplicates but what I really mean is cards that I already have two of.
I get that GvG is a smaller release I'm not trying to argue that, I just find it hard to swallow when I open a pack containing all cards that I already have when I have maybe around half the expansion. Being a player that has only spent money on NAX I open a pack maybe once every two days, Its very frustrating. I think that's a reasonable stance no?
It is a reasonable stance, I have open 6 packs and have already DE 3 cards.
F2P players are not stingy or poor, we are cost efficient.
Playing casually these days (work), always happy to talk strategy and deck building.
20 packs is no sample size worth talking about. Stochastic dude, you either had it in school or will have it in school.
I am commenting on my experience, As I have already stated over a third of the cards I have opened just turn straight into dust. 20 packs is just a number. Irrespective at this as of this moment 10/11 people have had similar experiences. Lets call that 20 packs per person, so in 200 packs people have experience a similar issue.
This site is in desperate need of a stickied primer on the definition of "random".
I've opened around 130 packs of GvG and have not gotten any target dummies :)
Ibn Fahd.
This isn't that surprising.
There's only 80 total commons (2 of each). If you have about half, then the chance of getting a card you already have is about 1/2, given that you roll that chance 3-4 times each pack, you are looking at a pretty high chance that one of those cards is one you already have.
As others have mentioned, this is a result of there being so few commons compared to their pack rarity. 40 out of 120 is 33% of the expansion while the rate of getting commons is 60-80%
Pretty much this.
Now if others midread it the way I did at first, to clerify:
The CHANCE of getting certain rarities has not changed. It's still 1% chance per card to get a legendary (thus 5% per pack).
However, due to the fact that there's less commons and more higher rarities in relation to the amount of cards (haven't checked if it's due ot more epics or legendaries or what not) it means your going to hit that satiruation point, the point where yo ustart seeing more duplicates.
The BIGGER reason for seeing duplicates faster is the fact that there's about half as many cards in this set. So if you hit duplicate ville at 40 packs, you'll see it in GvG at around 20 packs.
So while a small bit of the dupping is due to the larger number of high rarities to commons, the BIGGER reasons is just that this is a smaller set than Classic.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
If you had just 33 commons from GvG's 80 then there is an approximately 50% chance you will have 3 of the same card (blah this link to wolfram alpha didn't work, if curious google for wolfram alpha birthday problem calculator, set the option to select the number of days, or in this case cards, and enter the numbers 33 and 80).
Its a classic example of the Birthday Problem (the results of which surprise me to this day).
On top of that theres also Survivor Bias, users are likely to report stories of extreme good and bad luck over others. So even if you are an outlier (too much calculation required to work out the exact odds), the logical conclusion is not that the process is biased towards duplicates (i.e. its much more likely you were just unlucky).
Well in fact in 100 persons there is probably one person without any duplicates and with 5 legendary cards. Random is not fair but random. Only in large sample sizes it balance to a predictable curve.
Very interesting calculator. I do agree that statistically I would be considered unlucky. At the same time though I feel that in the first 20 packs that I open the odds should be in my favor not to open up packs all containing cards I already have. That's what prompted me to write this thread. I mean even concerning common cards there are still 14 cards that I dont even have a single copy of. I do understand that the way this expansion is and all the ratios etc, it just frustrates me after saving up gold for an arean (over a two day period) that my efforts are rewarded with cards I have no use for.