Hearthpwn

TQuote from Zizka >>

I was under the same impression (the game dying), so again, research. While there was a drop in 2020 it’s back up  in 2023. 

Also: 

• The Hearthstone player base is 10 times bigger than it was in 2014.

Source: https://webtribunal.net/blog/hearthstone-player-count/

Although:

• Hearthstone’s revenue has been decreasing since the end of 2019.

(same source)

I just wish I had financial data to confirm this. I did find this which seems reliable:

Hearthstone revenue for 2018:

$165 million

---

Hearthstone revenue for 2016:

$394.6 million

Source: https://videogamesstats.com/hearthstone-facts-statistics/

It seems revenue is going down (as of 2018 anyway) but the player base isn’t declining at an alarming rate. I did find this which was interesting:

While 2018 closed with $165 million in revenue for HS on mobile alone, SensorTower predicts total revenue of just $33 million for the first half of 2022.

Source: https://us.millenium.gg/news/28415.html

So, in a way, it is dying but it seems to be from lack of player who actually spend money on the game as opposed to lacking players. Hopefully this will mean the end and lead to Hearthstone 2.0 which reworks the game from the ground up.

 

What a nonsense article.
We DO have player amount data, albeit it being for the part of the playerbase that uses a decktracker, which should not matter because it generally is the same % of people that use one over time.

In it's peak HS had around 25-30 million games per week (of people using HDT), since 2018 that has steadily declined to peaking around 15 million per week after new expansion release. This (newest) expansion is the first expansion ever where peak HDT players didn't go over 10 million; it peaked around 9 million in the week after release and has been declining since, currently on 8.2 million (300k unique players).

SO, in essence, we are now at a level where there's 30% of weekly games versus prime HS days, of the people that use HDT (which i guess is the important part of the playerbase, as those people, i assume, are more likely to spend money on the game). The only thing we do not know is how much % of the playerbase uses HDT. I think it's quite large as only 1 person in each game needs to run it for this data to feed.

If you look at other, less reliable, data, like twitch viewership or youtube views on hs videos, it's completely down the drain too. This just means player interest for watching HS is down, a lot, too as opposed to the prime days.

Is the game dying? I don't think it is, but it surely is making a heck of a lot less money than it used to.

There is also this video from HS mathematics, backed by sensortower data, which claims 2022 was, by a long shot, the worst year for HS ever in revenue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kob4zKCyHMc

I’m not sure what you think is « nonsense » but anyway, you’re entitled to your opinion. You also didn’t mention which one of the sources was nonsense, unless you meant my reply in an article? But anyway, that’s beside the point.

Let’s look at your claims:

« We DO have player amount data, albeit it being for the part of the playerbase that uses a decktracker, which should not matter because it generally is the same % of people that use one over time. »

How do you know the amount of players who use deck tracker vs those who don’t? I personally don’t. Can you give your source? 

 « In it's peak HS had around 25-30 million games per week (of people using HDT), since 2018 that has steadily declined to peaking around 15 million per week after new expansion release. This (newest) expansion is the first expansion ever where peak HDT players didn't go over 10 million; it peaked around 9 million in the week after release and has been declining since, currently on 8.2 million (300k unique players). »

So:

1. When was its « peak » which you use as a point of comparison? Do you mean 2017?

1. In this paragraph, you mix the number of games played a week (orange) and the total amount of players (green). I think you’re using the amount of games played as your indicator. As a side note, you really should provide your sources with links so it’s possible to investigate.

Since you’ve brought up the number of players, I assume you consider it’s relevant:

Could you provide the # of weekly unique players? 

« SO, in essence, we are now at a level where there's 30% of weekly games versus prime HS days, of the people that use HDT (which i guess is the important part of the playerbase, as those people, i assume, are more likely to spend money on the game). The only thing we do not know is how much % of the playerbase uses HDT. I think it's quite large as only 1 person in each game needs to run it for this data to feed. »

1. Well « guess » is certainly the key word here, especially the part about using the tracker correlates to people investing money into Hearthstone. Anyway, this whole paragraph is speculation on your part.

 « If you look at other, less reliable, data, like twitch viewership or youtube views on hs videos, it's completely down the drain too. This just means player interest for watching HS is down, a lot, too as opposed to the prime days. »

1. Again, source. You can’t just make statements like this with proof to back it up. Either way, this is somewhat related but not necessarily so. 
   
   

« Is the game dying? I don't think it is, but it surely is making a heck of a lot less money than it used to. »

So wait. Am I understanding this right:

1. You start off by saying that this is nonsense.
2. Provide statistics which indicates that the games played/week is in steady decline.
3. Come to the conclusion that: despite Hearthstone bringing less money and less games being played a week, the game isn’t dying?

Can you explain? I’m confused. Please explain which indicators you would consider to be relevant of a « dying game ». 

« So, in a way, it is dying but it seems to be from lack of player who actually spend money on the game as opposed to lacking players. Hopefully this will mean the end and lead to Hearthstone 2.0 which reworks the game from the ground up. »

I think we’re both in agreement that the game is definitely bringing in less money. Actually, come to think of it, I’m not sure what you disagree with in the first place and what you think is absurd. The only think I can make out is that you don’t think it is dying (although you go to great length to explain how the game is in decline) while I think it *is* dying mostly because revenue is going down.

yup, only bots in wild. dead game.

Quote from b1ak1ce >>

why do people even bot in this game, I get it in WoW because you can sell gold on online markets, but why HS? The reward economy is self-contained.

 People make new accounts, bot in them for a few months and then sell them with 100k gold or whatever. There's hundreds of offers like that if you google up 'buying Hearthstone account', though they're so cheap that I don't think they're even worth the electricity cost let alone all the effort. Though maybe it's worth it in 3rd world currency, I dunno. But that's also why they have random scrambled names, when they sell the account, it comes with that free name change as well.

I mostly play Wild and I meet bots of all shapes and sizes:

• Blizzard bots, can't do anything about those.
• Autoqueue bots, where all they do is queue up and AFK for the rest of the game.
• Autoclicker bots, where they queue up and Hero Power in order to rope for the rest of the game, to gain as much XP as possible.
• Paid bots, where they play cards and sometimes emote and everything.

I think Blizzard bots were always there but people are only noticing them now because the playerbase is declining. They shouldn't be a problem for most players though, just win to get out of the bot MMR.

I know Autoqueue bots are whatever for a lot of people, 'just take your free win and move on', but there's lots of people whose decks only pop off after turn 10 (and only have removal until then) so you either play out a 10 minute game of staring at a rope, or you concede and give a botter a free win towards their golden portrait. It's frustrating no matter how you put it.

Autoclicker bots are the most annoying because they operate on a basic logic of: 'if I'm in the menus then I'm not gaining XP', so they draw out every game for as long as possible, that's why most of them are Odd Warriors, though some of them play other classes (because I assume they already got the 1000 win portrait on Warrior from so many concedes). On the bright side, they tend to die out after the 3rd month of an expansion, so there's that. Some people also set up their autoclicker to play cards and go face, you can tell it's just autoclicking because playing a taunt completely breaks the bot.

Paid bots are the most risky to use but people use 'em anyway. Same exact delay between playing cards every time, while playing a braindead aggro deck.

I report every bot I come across but I don't think it does much, there's names I reported years ago that I still meet botting today. I'm so familiar with the names on my MMR level that I straight up recognize the bots and concede so I don't even waste my mulligan time. Though there are names that I also haven't seen in a while, so maybe they do get banned, who knows.

Very informative post! This should be stickied to explain the different types of bots. 

I was wondering about that:

People make new accounts, bot in them for a few months and then sell them with 100k gold or whatever. There's hundreds of offers like that if you google up 'buying Hearthstone account', though they're so cheap that I don't think they're even worth the electricity cost let alone all the effort. Though maybe it's worth it in 3rd world currency, I dunno. But that's also why they have random scrambled names, when they sell the account, it comes with that free name change as well.

I thought the scrambled letters were due to the accounts being made through an automated process. I still think it could be the case, a bot registering a new account and then spamming different usernames until it gets one which hasn’t been picked? I think a generator is involved at some point because from what I’ve seen, it’s only strings of consonant, I wonder why that is. I mean, why isn’t it a mess of scrambled letters in general, why only consonants? I’ve noticed it’s also often the same letters being used. I doubt they register each account manually. 

As for why it’s lucrative, it’s because of:

Though maybe it's worth it in 3rd world currency

I’m almost sure of it. If there was data about bot farming, the US wouldn’t come up at #1. For some currency (pound, €, £, US) it’s very cheap but in some other countries, selling multiple accounts can be quite lucrative. I looked up « buying hearthstone accounts » and came up with this, look at that shit:

Source: https://www.g2g.com/categories/hearthstone-global-account
Suspicious much? Each account being sold has *exaclty*:

*1500 gold

*30 packs 

*2600 dust

How could a same person have multiple accounts with exactly the same content? They’re also all added at the same time in bulk. There’s *only* one possible explanation: bot farming. But then… I went to check the details of an account:

So how they have clean accounts with no game played and yet have the dust, cards and gold? Are those automatically included in a new account which they just sell off? If so, it wouldn’t make sense, as people would only create an account on their own and get the free stuff.

Also, notice the username CNL Team, this could likely be a group of individuals with tons of accounts ready to sell. CN also reminds me of China, *the* most famous country for farming stuff in Blizzard’s games. It would also fit the narrative of the currency, Chinese money is worthless outside of China. 1$CAN = 5.17 Chinese Yuan. So what’s being bought by first world countries is quite lucrative for China. As for electricity, I wouldn’t be surprised if they used Internet bars (quite popular in China) to mass produce accounts.

If you scroll down, you’ll notice it’s only tons of accounts like that, not accounts like those:

Although the content of each account varies, 4 instances are from the same user? It could be a single user who had four different accounts to his name for some reason. Each account doesn’t have exactly the same content, which is a lot less suspicious.

Anyway, if you check the first user, he has about 400$ worth of accounts right there which is not bad at all. 

I don’t know how an account can have stuff in it without any games played however.