Puns aside, serious question because I noticed something curious.
So supposedly there are two kinds of Pity Timer. First works only in Expansion Packs, you get 1 guaranteed Legendary in your first 10 Packs of any given Expansion. This as far as I can tell works fine.
The second kind applies to all kinds of Packs as I understand and works in such a way that you can never go more than 40 Packs without seeing a Legendary within a given kind of Pack. So within 40, say, UiS Packs you will find a Legendary for sure. Maybe.
Because here is where I noticed some potential issue.
What I do is, I keep track of my opened Packs and if I see I have like 13 or more opened without a Legendary I consider those kind of Packs high probability to open a Legendary so I focus on them until it pops. This is where I spotted a potential inconsistency. I had opened 12 UiS packs at some point, then I opened some Alterac Packs and now some Sunken ones. Seeing that I had so many UiS ones I figured I pop that before continuing to work on Sunken Packs. And it took 33 Packs (counting the 12) for a Legend to come out. Now this is not over 40 so not a smoking gun, but it is unlikely. Especially so given how I had a similar event in the past where I similarly mixed Packs and again neared or (and depending on how accurate my count was) exceeded 40 Packs before Legend drop. This seems to strongly hint that:
Conclusion: There is a fair chance that Pity Timers can be messed up by mixing different kinds of Packs, i.e. opening a few of UiS then FitB, then back to UiS or whatever. The game will forget how many you opened of the kind you opened in the past, seemingly only remembering the most recent kind of Pack you opened. If you do this you will risk going more than 40 Packs without a Legendary drop which we can all agree would suck quite a bit. If I am right the optimal strategy is to open only one kind of Pack until a Legendary drops, only then start purchasing or opening a different kind of Pack. Opening them willy-nilly as they come and mixing different kinds of Packs may leave you with longer than usual Legendary droughts.
Roughly. This is what is known regarding pity timers:
There is one pity timer (for legs, also one for epics) per pack type, excluding non-regular packs (golden packs, year packs, stadard packs etc.), which do not have a pity timer. This starts at 10 for the first legendary, then is 40 for subsequent legs.
The pity timer has not been seen to be mixed up by mixing up packs. Significant amounts of testing has been done here. Numbers greater than 0 just haven't been seen outside of short-term bugs.
You really can't read anything into the fact that you've opened 33 packs without a legendary: it's happened to me repeatedly. Heck, I've gone to 40 at least once or twice. I've also gotten ones in consecutive packs. As has already been said, the numbers here have been tracked extensively and are rock-solid: at least one epic every 10 packs, at least one legendary every 40 packs.
And, as fusilli said, there's no gaming the system here. Each type of pack is tracked separately, so messing with the order you buy or open the packs makes no difference.
dude you need to use a collection manager / tracking application such as Firestone to verify it. i think you will see that pity timers work, it will dispel your doubts
I've been keeping track in a spreadsheet of how many packs from each expansion I have opened without getting a legendary. This includes standard and wild, so going back to GvG. I've never exceeded 40 and quite a few times I've opened a legendary on exactly the 40th pack. I am quite confident that the pity timers work as we know and independently for each expansion, no matter whether you mix up your packs
It was not just the 33 no-leg run, but also a 40 no-leg run before that, both with mixing.
But if the experimentation and the statistics are so air tight then guess I was just really unlucky lately. And I concede the point. My sample size was always small even though thought provoking. But there is also a chance things no longer work as they did, but I am sure someone with more data than me will bring that out if it is the case.
I also got very shit luck with Standard packs so that further proves those have no pity timer.
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Puns aside, serious question because I noticed something curious.
So supposedly there are two kinds of Pity Timer. First works only in Expansion Packs, you get 1 guaranteed Legendary in your first 10 Packs of any given Expansion. This as far as I can tell works fine.
The second kind applies to all kinds of Packs as I understand and works in such a way that you can never go more than 40 Packs without seeing a Legendary within a given kind of Pack. So within 40, say, UiS Packs you will find a Legendary for sure. Maybe.
Because here is where I noticed some potential issue.
What I do is, I keep track of my opened Packs and if I see I have like 13 or more opened without a Legendary I consider those kind of Packs high probability to open a Legendary so I focus on them until it pops. This is where I spotted a potential inconsistency. I had opened 12 UiS packs at some point, then I opened some Alterac Packs and now some Sunken ones. Seeing that I had so many UiS ones I figured I pop that before continuing to work on Sunken Packs. And it took 33 Packs (counting the 12) for a Legend to come out. Now this is not over 40 so not a smoking gun, but it is unlikely. Especially so given how I had a similar event in the past where I similarly mixed Packs and again neared or (and depending on how accurate my count was) exceeded 40 Packs before Legend drop. This seems to strongly hint that:
Conclusion: There is a fair chance that Pity Timers can be messed up by mixing different kinds of Packs, i.e. opening a few of UiS then FitB, then back to UiS or whatever. The game will forget how many you opened of the kind you opened in the past, seemingly only remembering the most recent kind of Pack you opened. If you do this you will risk going more than 40 Packs without a Legendary drop which we can all agree would suck quite a bit. If I am right the optimal strategy is to open only one kind of Pack until a Legendary drops, only then start purchasing or opening a different kind of Pack. Opening them willy-nilly as they come and mixing different kinds of Packs may leave you with longer than usual Legendary droughts.
Any thoughts?
Roughly. This is what is known regarding pity timers:
There is one pity timer (for legs, also one for epics) per pack type, excluding non-regular packs (golden packs, year packs, stadard packs etc.), which do not have a pity timer. This starts at 10 for the first legendary, then is 40 for subsequent legs.
The pity timer has not been seen to be mixed up by mixing up packs. Significant amounts of testing has been done here. Numbers greater than 0 just haven't been seen outside of short-term bugs.
You really can't read anything into the fact that you've opened 33 packs without a legendary: it's happened to me repeatedly. Heck, I've gone to 40 at least once or twice. I've also gotten ones in consecutive packs. As has already been said, the numbers here have been tracked extensively and are rock-solid: at least one epic every 10 packs, at least one legendary every 40 packs.
And, as fusilli said, there's no gaming the system here. Each type of pack is tracked separately, so messing with the order you buy or open the packs makes no difference.
dude you need to use a collection manager / tracking application such as Firestone to verify it. i think you will see that pity timers work, it will dispel your doubts
"Woow..."
I've been keeping track in a spreadsheet of how many packs from each expansion I have opened without getting a legendary. This includes standard and wild, so going back to GvG. I've never exceeded 40 and quite a few times I've opened a legendary on exactly the 40th pack. I am quite confident that the pity timers work as we know and independently for each expansion, no matter whether you mix up your packs
It was not just the 33 no-leg run, but also a 40 no-leg run before that, both with mixing.
But if the experimentation and the statistics are so air tight then guess I was just really unlucky lately. And I concede the point. My sample size was always small even though thought provoking. But there is also a chance things no longer work as they did, but I am sure someone with more data than me will bring that out if it is the case.
I also got very shit luck with Standard packs so that further proves those have no pity timer.