Hearthpwn

Quote from HighDef2021 >>

Quote from Spectralfire1984 >>

Quote from HighDef2021 >>

Jesus Christ...

Match up against the same deck over and over again using your same deck over and over again.

Change your deck.

You then no longer match up against that same deck over and over again.

It's been like this for a long time. I don't care if people want to dismiss it as anecdotal evidence. But then they do that and say in the same breath say that MMR is set up to achieve a 50% win rate. That in itself is manipulation AKA rigging.

Why is it whenever this is brought up a bunch of wall defenders feel the need to tell you how wrong you are? I'm not going to waste my time with deck trackers. I have this thing called a memory. How about YOU use a deck tracker. Go ahead, play the same deck say 50 times. Tell me what what happens. Then switch your deck. Play another 50. Tell me what happens. And I won't ask for proof because I would believe you.

You're right it is anecdotal and pseudoscientific.  Psychologically speaking those who claim to have bad luck with something usually don't actually have worse luck than anyone else.  You're saying you aren't tracking this, just going on feeling.  This isn't our experience so If you want to convince us by using a known fallacy as evidence its not going to work.  

 OK let's break it down for the simple around here.

This isn't about losing. This isn't about bad luck. I never said I was losing. Can you read?

AGAIN FOR THE UMPTEENTH TIME -

If you play the same deck long enough, you will notice a pattern of hitting a counter to that deck repeatedly. If you switch to another deck, you rarely see that counter deck.

Got it now? This isn't difficult. It goes in line with Blizzard wanting a 50% winrate. Duh der Do YoU unDerStand NoW?

 According to this logic, I should be bombarded with counter decks as of the current season I have a 58% WR and had a 62% in my last Legend run. The decks I faced now and then are evenly distributed from what is/was popular at the time

Quote from Shed >>

Quote from YourPersonalGuru >>

Quote from Shed >>

There you go my lovely folks, my humble statistics from Stormwind launch to today, looks like no tempering done.

 Looks boringly normal. Could be interesting if you can see the numbers before and after the big shaman nerf. He surely was very popular before but now I don't see a lot.

Edit: The warrior data might be the only weird one. I assume that you mostly played W after nerfs but where are all the aggro druids? Maybe you were just on the right end of the ladder? 

 From launch I started of playign Quest Mage and very quickly switched to Rush Warrior when Robes of Protection started showing up a lot, played some matches with Buff Paladin to not burn out on the decks I had, dropped those when Quest Shaman became popular because Warrior was having some trouble with it, I pick up Quest Shaman itself for the legend push, on new season I started playing Astral Druid, while having stray matches with Quest Mage, Shaman, Elemental Shaman and Tempo DH. I posted my screenshot when Aggro Druid was picking up steam, now it's everywhere and I'm playing it too.

 Aaaah that explains it. I started with shaman and only got to some tax warrior just before the last patch. BIG warrior is a nice switch from things. I didn't know that stats page before now. Now I can see that blizzard has rigged the game in my favor by setting me up against 3 hunters but only 2 mages with my warrior out of my massive 13 games!!!! I'm still gonna continue playing the game and buying stuff of course :p

BTW it is a capital error to assume the metagame is consistent throughout all ranks of play.

Here is the metagame according to popularity over the past 3 days...

Top 1000 Legend: Garrote Rogue (28%), Quest Lifesteal DH (21%), Quest Handlock (13%), Aggro Druid (12%), Face Hunter (9%), Elemental Shaman (7%), Anacondra Druid (5%), Quest Mage (3%), Libram Paladin (2%).

Bottom Legend: Garrote Rogue (18%), Quest Mage (16%), Aggro Druid (11%), Elemental Shaman (7%), Quest Handlock (7%), Quest Lifesteal DH (7%), Face Hunter (6%), Anacondra Druid (6%), Secret Libram Paladin (6%), Quest Control Warrior (5%).

Diamond 1-4: Aggro Druid (21%), Quest Mage (18%), Elemental Shaman (8%), Secret Libram Paladin (8%), Pirate Warrior (7%), Garrote Rogue (6%), Face Hunter (5%), Deathrattle DH (4%), Quest Handlock (4%), Quest Lifesteal DH (3%).

Diamond 5-10: Aggro Druid (19%), Quest Mage (17%), Pirate Warrior (9%), Garrote Rogue (8%), Elemental Shaman (8%), Secret Libram Paladin (6%), Quest Lifesteal DH (5%), Deathrattle DH (5%), Quest Handlock (4%), Quest Control Warrior (3%).

Quote from Joshbuckler >>

Capital as in "punishable by death"?

 Of your Hero, yes.

My point though was, let's say your deck has a 60% winrate against non-OTK decks but only a 30% winrate against OTK decks, and you start at Diamond 10. That deck will rank up well enough through Diamond with about a 54% winrate, but as soon as you start facing Legend opponents you can expect that deck's winrate to drop to about 41% even though you didn't change a single card. And it's not because you suddenly got a string of unlucky or rigged pairings, just that your pool of opponents has changed.

Of course, in real life you also have the additional factor of average opponent skill increasing as you rank up. I don't think this has a huge effect on gameplay itself — let's say it's another 2%. But that's a 15% winrate swing from winning just a few games, because 1. a matchmaking threshold, in this case Diamond→Legend, is crossed and 2. piloting skill DOES have a hugely significant impact on archetype availability, such that the most difficult decks to pilot aren't really a thing until you get to the higher ranks, and with different archetypes "available" you get completely different metas. Therefore there isn't a monolithic Standard meta, there's a high Legend meta and a low Legend meta and a Diamond meta, etc.

It's always the same song, experienced it since beta. You get a new deck, you win like 10 games. Then the hard counters pop up. If you get sick of those and decide to use a counter against those counters, those counters don't pup up anymore. Instead you face the counters of the counters to the counters you're using.

That being said, in some cases there's decks that don't have really good counters, like back in the days secret hunter, or like last year with pally going rampant. Those are the moments they start changing cards, to make sure these out of balance decks actually get counters. Or they don't, then people get angry, because one class is just too dominant in the meta.

And yeah, i've been on the final star before legend like 6 times. And always, really always there's that insane hard counter waiting for you. Just like on every five ranks. They're called gatekeepers.

Quote from Saintgein >>

And yeah, i've been on the final star before legend like 6 times. And always, really always there's that insane hard counter waiting for you. Just like on every five ranks. They're called gatekeepers.

 Pretty sure that's the first match wherein your opponent is pulled from Legend players, in which case I just got done explaining the science behind that.

Every few days I face a guy who is d1-3stars. No matter what deck I play the game matches me with something that is essentially a free win for me. I think the algorithm decided to make me one of these gatekeepers against my will. Help!