I use HearthStats, and I would not really trust it as a reliable source for solid global statistics. Wins/Losses are recorded manuallly, so anyone could just go in and record a ton of wins. I don't do that, but I do delete some experimental decks (and their recorded statistics) that I feel are not working out, just so it doesn't clutter my page and cause confusion. I basically use HearthStats to track my progress and adjust as necessary, it's a great tool that lets you know what is working, what's not, and against each class. You should check it out.
Even that isn't very clear, what does 3% actually mean? I'm assuming it means that going first has 51.5% win rate as opposed to 48.5%, but that isn't the only interpretation.
That's correct, 3% advantage means 51.5% win rate. From the September official announcement:
"Here’s what we’re seeing so far since we added The Coin: Across all leagues – 4.4% better to go first, on average (i.e. 52.2% of the time, Player 1 wins)"
I've never used HearthStats, so I don't know how accurate it is. Does it count games ending with a concession? (I vaguely remember reading here a while ago that it didn't.) Any statistics with a 54.5% average win rate are obviously questionable, since Hearthstone is zero-sum; the average win rate should be exactly 50%. That implies that players tend to be more likely to record games which they win, hence unreliable self-selection bias creeps in. (Again, I don't know about HearthStats, so I don't know if it's possible to cancel the reporting of results when a loss seems imminent.)
I actually don't use Hearthstats (too lazy), I just made an account to check the current season global stats.
As far as I know the tracking is done manually, so in theory people could go and add a bunch of meaningless wins - but then why would they purposely add every single one of them with coin? The default setting is without coin and afaik you would need to change that for every win you enter.
The 54.5% average win rate is easily explained by the fact that the average Hearthstats user is more skilled than the average Hearthstone player. In fact I would have been very surprised if the reported win rate was 50%.
I'm so glad there is prejudice against playing hunter/zoo/[insert FotM deck here]. People like that make the life so much easier for those of us who play to win.
Having the coin is advantageous for: Ramp Druid, mages that play mana wyrm, all rogues, zoo warlock, shockadin, shamans with unbound + feral spirits in opening hand Not having the coin is advantageous for: Control warrior, Handlock
I just almost lost a game on mage due to them saving the coin for when they thought I had a counterspell up, it seems really odd to me that it's considered a spell. I feel like it should be its own type of card or something.
And of course there's rogue that can combo off of it. That one makes more sense since it's any card they combo.
I don't find anything wrong with rogue but it really bothers me that mage secrets can be popped with the coin. Thoughts?
I've been thinking on this for a long time , and it only made sense to me if the coin was some kind of unique mechanic (not a card, something like the end turn button) but I doubt it will get changed, as long as it's not broken blizz will not bother. If a class manages to somehow constantly abuse it, then it maybe will ge changed (which doesnt really sound probable).
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
arcanor#2280 , EU
Not devoted enough to spend money/lots of time , but still like being somewhat competitive
Peaked at rank 3 couple seasons ago, usually around ranks 10-5 at the end of seasons (unless it's been a busy month irl)
Also, having the coin is still a disadvantage, so they're unlikely to nerf it. If anything, The Coin is slightly under-powered.
What is your reasoning here? This should perhaps be a different discussion, but I don't think it always is. Especially as rogue. Even playing zoo vs zoo, you can use the coin to effectively switch orders, playing for 2 mana before your opponent can, in addition to having more options on your first turn.
Also, having the coin is still a disadvantage, so they're unlikely to nerf it. If anything, The Coin is slightly under-powered.
What is your reasoning here? This should perhaps be a different discussion, but I don't think it always is. Especially as rogue. Even playing zoo vs zoo, you can use the coin to effectively switch orders, playing for 2 mana before your opponent can, in addition to having more options on your first turn.
Also, having the coin is still a disadvantage, so they're unlikely to nerf it. If anything, The Coin is slightly under-powered.
What is your reasoning here? This should perhaps be a different discussion, but I don't think it always is. Especially as rogue. Even playing zoo vs zoo, you can use the coin to effectively switch orders, playing for 2 mana before your opponent can, in addition to having more options on your first turn.
It's been proven by official statistics that it's 3% better to go first than second. Players going first win 51.5% of their games, and players with The Coin win 48.5%.
Allright, I'm convinced, and the variance between classes fit my initial thoughts.
If anything, it shows that the coin is a pretty well balanced mechanic.
EDIT: I wonder if the numbers would be the same now. It's over a year since those statistics were done, and they also show only a 0.7 % advantage on the higher levels of play. Perhaps one could assume that the advantage gets smaller as the general skill level goes up?
Blizzard tracks tons of stats, the last I heard going first is still a very slight advantage, which means the coin is just about right. That going first is more advantageous in Arena than constructed also shows that the coins use as a spell is important to keeping this balance.
It's either just you or you only play miracle rogue... If I remember right last time the stats were posted every class other than rogue had a slightly better win percentage going first with rogue only being tipped a little bit the other way.
To be fair that could be attributed to players in lower ranks not knowing how to properly use the coin, skewing the results but either way I don't think the difference in win percentage is enough to try to change it.
Yes, it does. It is a card in your hand, so it lowers the cost of Mountain giant by one. Sure, if you cast the spell, it does nothing if you want to play your Mountain.
To Taz's point though if you have the coin it being a spell or some kind of +1 mana button would do exactly the same thing to the cost of Mountain Giant, it's just you would actually have to use it if it wasn't a spell/card instead of keeping it in hand.
Yes, it does. It is a card in your hand, so it lowers the cost of Mountain giant by one. Sure, if you cast the spell, it does nothing if you want to play your Mountain.
My bad, thought OP was referring to misplay of coining out Giant on turn 3 with 8 cards in hand.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
I use HearthStats, and I would not really trust it as a reliable source for solid global statistics. Wins/Losses are recorded manuallly, so anyone could just go in and record a ton of wins. I don't do that, but I do delete some experimental decks (and their recorded statistics) that I feel are not working out, just so it doesn't clutter my page and cause confusion. I basically use HearthStats to track my progress and adjust as necessary, it's a great tool that lets you know what is working, what's not, and against each class. You should check it out.
I actually don't use Hearthstats (too lazy), I just made an account to check the current season global stats.
As far as I know the tracking is done manually, so in theory people could go and add a bunch of meaningless wins - but then why would they purposely add every single one of them with coin? The default setting is without coin and afaik you would need to change that for every win you enter.
The 54.5% average win rate is easily explained by the fact that the average Hearthstats user is more skilled than the average Hearthstone player. In fact I would have been very surprised if the reported win rate was 50%.
I'm so glad there is prejudice against playing hunter/zoo/[insert FotM deck here]. People like that make the life so much easier for those of us who play to win.
Bookmarked for use in all future threads where people say "Going first used to be better, but the meta has shifted, and now the coin is better!!"
Where's the 3rd option for "It depends" ?
Having the coin is advantageous for: Ramp Druid, mages that play mana wyrm, all rogues, zoo warlock, shockadin, shamans with unbound + feral spirits in opening hand
Not having the coin is advantageous for: Control warrior, Handlock
I just almost lost a game on mage due to them saving the coin for when they thought I had a counterspell up, it seems really odd to me that it's considered a spell. I feel like it should be its own type of card or something.
And of course there's rogue that can combo off of it. That one makes more sense since it's any card they combo.
I don't find anything wrong with rogue but it really bothers me that mage secrets can be popped with the coin. Thoughts?
I've been thinking on this for a long time , and it only made sense to me if the coin was some kind of unique mechanic (not a card, something like the end turn button) but I doubt it will get changed, as long as it's not broken blizz will not bother. If a class manages to somehow constantly abuse it, then it maybe will ge changed (which doesnt really sound probable).
arcanor#2280 , EU
Not devoted enough to spend money/lots of time , but still like being somewhat competitive
Peaked at rank 3 couple seasons ago, usually around ranks 10-5 at the end of seasons (unless it's been a busy month irl)
The entire game has been balanced around the fact that the coin is a spell, so that's never going to change.
Also, having the coin is still a disadvantage, so they're unlikely to nerf it. If anything, The Coin is slightly under-powered.
But my violet teacher/pyromancer/mana wyrm plays! Why dont you like my plays?!?
What is your reasoning here? This should perhaps be a different discussion, but I don't think it always is. Especially as rogue. Even playing zoo vs zoo, you can use the coin to effectively switch orders, playing for 2 mana before your opponent can, in addition to having more options on your first turn.
Statistics. http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/08/do-you-want-to-go-first-balancing-hearthstone-and-other-turn-based-games/
This does indeed show a lot of variance between classes.
It's been proven by official statistics that it's 3% better to go first than second. Players going first win 51.5% of their games, and players with The Coin win 48.5%.
Sources: One | Two | Three | Four
Allright, I'm convinced, and the variance between classes fit my initial thoughts.
If anything, it shows that the coin is a pretty well balanced mechanic.
EDIT: I wonder if the numbers would be the same now. It's over a year since those statistics were done, and they also show only a 0.7 % advantage on the higher levels of play. Perhaps one could assume that the advantage gets smaller as the general skill level goes up?
@Banankake: The ArsTechnica statistics were gathered only a couple of months ago.
And the Blizzard statistics were confirmed about 3 months ago. (See source 3, above.)
Blizzard tracks tons of stats, the last I heard going first is still a very slight advantage, which means the coin is just about right.
That going first is more advantageous in Arena than constructed also shows that the coins use as a spell is important to keeping this balance.
In other words its OPness is mostly in your head.
It's either just you or you only play miracle rogue... If I remember right last time the stats were posted every class other than rogue had a slightly better win percentage going first with rogue only being tipped a little bit the other way.
To be fair that could be attributed to players in lower ranks not knowing how to properly use the coin, skewing the results but either way I don't think the difference in win percentage is enough to try to change it.
To Taz's point though if you have the coin it being a spell or some kind of +1 mana button would do exactly the same thing to the cost of Mountain Giant, it's just you would actually have to use it if it wasn't a spell/card instead of keeping it in hand.
The only thing I would change about the coin is that it triggers counterspell. I think it makes counterspell, a 3 mana secret, even worse.
My bad, thought OP was referring to misplay of coining out Giant on turn 3 with 8 cards in hand.