I think he was asking more "how do you know before the first turn is even played". Some people like to say "oh, they mulliganed all 3 (or 4) of their cards, they're obviously control", but really, it's still just a luck thing.
Most decks in today's meta, though, just rely on creating their own win condition regardless of what the opponent is playing (spell druid just needs ramp, any warrior just needs Skipper or Corsair Cache). If you're mulliganing to counter the opponent, as opposed to just furthering your own win condition, I think you're already a step behind your opponent.
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Twitch name: Anatak15 NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
Essentially meta knowledge: Knowing what decks are commonly played for each class and how your deck interacts with them. You base your mulligan on the most popular deck of a given class, then watch for the first few plays to pick which of the 1-4 decks a given class plays.
Usually players are not skilled enough to use own decks, so its very possible that they use copy of some popular deck. And then you pretty much even know what is the next card opponent will play.
It's almost impossible to predict, if your opponent plays Mech or Odd Pally before the 1st turn, but you can alway assume, so card like Sap or any silence card is always a safe keep against Paladin, since it ruins Mechs. A nice board clear is also welcome. Paladin unfortunately has 2 meta decks and that's what makes it difficult, but if you see Priest nowadays you can be 100% sure that it's gonna be Reno Priest, or Demon Hunter is like always odd, so it's easier to make good mulligan against these classes.
As some have pointed out, many classes are notorious for always playing the same deck or the same kind of deck. That's especially the case in Standard, since most classes only have one popular deck anyway (with few exceptions), so I'll only talk about Wild here, but even in Wild, some classes are very one-dimensional. Demon Hunter is almost always Odd DH, just like Priest is pretty much guaranteed to play a slow Control deck like Highlander Priest.
In case of "keep this against Odd Paladin and this against Mech Paladin", it is not possible to know in advance what deck your opponent plays. The soonest you'd know is right after the mulligan: Either Baku changes the hero power, or it doesn't. Going with probability though, Mech Paladin is more popular than Odd Paladin, so you are better off playing around Mech Paladin. Usually, it doesn't matter too much anyway, since the decks have the common weakness of standing no chance once they lose their board presence and fall behind. There are likely some cards in your deck that are good against both.
It's more tricky against classes with very different decks like Mage, since Quest Mage, Secret Mage and Highlander Mage all have different strategies, and all three decks (with Quest Mage on the decline) are quite popular. And Highlander Mage is played with and without quest, and some players won't play the quest on the first turn either, because they might try to combo it into a Mana Cyclone.
However, you don't always get the perfect opening hand for any given matchup anyway. And in case that your opponent might play two very different decks, you should ask yourself which of these decks is harder for you to beat on average, and read the mulligan guide as a list of suggestions, which cards would be essential, which are less important, and which might be helpful either way.
Let's say you play Even Shaman against Warlock. You don't know if it's Cube, Highlander, or the occasional Mecha'thun OTK or Discard deck. You want to keep Devolve either way, since it would disrupt pretty much all those strategies by hitting cards like Voidcaller, Malchezaar's Imp, Loot Hoarder, or some big demon with taunt. Maelstrom Portal is potentially useful against Discard and OTK, but not that good against the control decks, and Discard and OTK are the less popular Warlock decks, so you drop it. Flamewreathed Faceless is somewhat essential against slower Warlock decks, since you need minions that can resist Defile and Dark Skies, and you need to get a lot of damage in before you hit the wall of taunts. The card isn't good against Discard, but keeping it wouldn't lose you the game, since your deck is relatively good at dealing with early aggression. You are more likely to find other cards in your deck to deal with those, so you keep the Faceless anyway. And Murkspark Eel would be good against any faster deck, and can still hit the very popular Mistress of Mixtures in slower decks, but it isn't essential in either Warlock matchup. So, depending on what else you have, you need to decide whether it's worth keeping, or whether it makes more sense for you to try and find a card that covers your weak spot better.
Mulligan guides are meant to help you understand how your deck needs to be played in certain matchups, and which cards would help you in these different approaches. You won't always get the cards that you want, but you still need to understand how you should play these matches. Playing Murkspark Eel on turn 2 to hit face seems like a stupid move, but against Highlander Priest, a very unfavorable matchup for Even Shaman, your best bet is to take them down as fast as possible. You'd much rather have a Totem Golem, but you know that the crucial part of the mulligan guide isn't "get the Totem Golem" but "develop a board as fast as possible".
Because there is a meta where you can find out which decks are competitive and what cards those decks play. It is very easy to know what cards are playing in those decks.
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Hello all,
When looking at the decks here at hearthpwn i see people write things like "against odd paladin you keep this and against mech paladin you keep that."
My question is, how do you know what deck your opponent is playing??
thank you in advance
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
becouse 90% of each class play that deck mostly if you meet a mage its like 99% chance at being highlander
If you played long enough or you play alot, you know by the first minion or spell they play lol.
Can't wait for next exp in august (and hopefully a new rogue hero... this is pathetic, 1 other hero.. druid has 3!!! )
I think he was asking more "how do you know before the first turn is even played". Some people like to say "oh, they mulliganed all 3 (or 4) of their cards, they're obviously control", but really, it's still just a luck thing.
Most decks in today's meta, though, just rely on creating their own win condition regardless of what the opponent is playing (spell druid just needs ramp, any warrior just needs Skipper or Corsair Cache). If you're mulliganing to counter the opponent, as opposed to just furthering your own win condition, I think you're already a step behind your opponent.
Twitch name: Anatak15
NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
Essentially meta knowledge: Knowing what decks are commonly played for each class and how your deck interacts with them. You base your mulligan on the most popular deck of a given class, then watch for the first few plays to pick which of the 1-4 decks a given class plays.
Usually players are not skilled enough to use own decks, so its very possible that they use copy of some popular deck. And then you pretty much even know what is the next card opponent will play.
It's almost impossible to predict, if your opponent plays Mech or Odd Pally before the 1st turn, but you can alway assume, so card like Sap or any silence card is always a safe keep against Paladin, since it ruins Mechs. A nice board clear is also welcome. Paladin unfortunately has 2 meta decks and that's what makes it difficult, but if you see Priest nowadays you can be 100% sure that it's gonna be Reno Priest, or Demon Hunter is like always odd, so it's easier to make good mulligan against these classes.
As some have pointed out, many classes are notorious for always playing the same deck or the same kind of deck. That's especially the case in Standard, since most classes only have one popular deck anyway (with few exceptions), so I'll only talk about Wild here, but even in Wild, some classes are very one-dimensional. Demon Hunter is almost always Odd DH, just like Priest is pretty much guaranteed to play a slow Control deck like Highlander Priest.
In case of "keep this against Odd Paladin and this against Mech Paladin", it is not possible to know in advance what deck your opponent plays. The soonest you'd know is right after the mulligan: Either Baku changes the hero power, or it doesn't. Going with probability though, Mech Paladin is more popular than Odd Paladin, so you are better off playing around Mech Paladin. Usually, it doesn't matter too much anyway, since the decks have the common weakness of standing no chance once they lose their board presence and fall behind. There are likely some cards in your deck that are good against both.
It's more tricky against classes with very different decks like Mage, since Quest Mage, Secret Mage and Highlander Mage all have different strategies, and all three decks (with Quest Mage on the decline) are quite popular. And Highlander Mage is played with and without quest, and some players won't play the quest on the first turn either, because they might try to combo it into a Mana Cyclone.
However, you don't always get the perfect opening hand for any given matchup anyway. And in case that your opponent might play two very different decks, you should ask yourself which of these decks is harder for you to beat on average, and read the mulligan guide as a list of suggestions, which cards would be essential, which are less important, and which might be helpful either way.
Let's say you play Even Shaman against Warlock. You don't know if it's Cube, Highlander, or the occasional Mecha'thun OTK or Discard deck. You want to keep Devolve either way, since it would disrupt pretty much all those strategies by hitting cards like Voidcaller, Malchezaar's Imp, Loot Hoarder, or some big demon with taunt. Maelstrom Portal is potentially useful against Discard and OTK, but not that good against the control decks, and Discard and OTK are the less popular Warlock decks, so you drop it. Flamewreathed Faceless is somewhat essential against slower Warlock decks, since you need minions that can resist Defile and Dark Skies, and you need to get a lot of damage in before you hit the wall of taunts. The card isn't good against Discard, but keeping it wouldn't lose you the game, since your deck is relatively good at dealing with early aggression. You are more likely to find other cards in your deck to deal with those, so you keep the Faceless anyway. And Murkspark Eel would be good against any faster deck, and can still hit the very popular Mistress of Mixtures in slower decks, but it isn't essential in either Warlock matchup. So, depending on what else you have, you need to decide whether it's worth keeping, or whether it makes more sense for you to try and find a card that covers your weak spot better.
Mulligan guides are meant to help you understand how your deck needs to be played in certain matchups, and which cards would help you in these different approaches. You won't always get the cards that you want, but you still need to understand how you should play these matches. Playing Murkspark Eel on turn 2 to hit face seems like a stupid move, but against Highlander Priest, a very unfavorable matchup for Even Shaman, your best bet is to take them down as fast as possible. You'd much rather have a Totem Golem, but you know that the crucial part of the mulligan guide isn't "get the Totem Golem" but "develop a board as fast as possible".
Meta, Mulligan, reading their game play if they go first. Fast or slow pass, 1 drop.
Because there is a meta where you can find out which decks are competitive and what cards those decks play. It is very easy to know what cards are playing in those decks.