Thanks. Good points. MMR is not that mysterious, it will try to make your winrate 50%, but will be unable to succeed as players do have different skills, and the top players have no higher levels to climb to. However, a player with very high MMR will be punished harder by losses.
Good job reaching 67% winrate over a month, that is probably close to as high as possible in this game.
This is how the top GM in Starcraft 2 looks atm, with one player way ahead in MMR (7k numbers)
It isn't. No good player will whine that MM and RNG are rigged against them. For proof you need nit look further than post history of users who claim that it is. Regulars in the salt thread and every other whine thread on hearthpwn.
It isn't. No good player will whine that MM and RNG are rigged against them. For proof you need nit look further than post history of users who claim that it is. Regulars in the salt thread and every other whine thread on hearthpwn.
I achieved multiple high legends, are at 100% winrate so far this season with Highlander Mage (even though it's only 13 games so far :P) and still think it is rigged. With every day more I play this game my doubt this game is completely random rises. Of course I am salty, hell yeah. Because there is more than this, design decisions etc.
But there are so many situations where RNG decides the game with the perfect outcome it's against the every odd. Of course it happens, people also win lotteries. But it happens way to often.
And I repeat myself everytime: This company owns the rights behind a logic for rigged matchmaking. This fact alone rises the chances it is rigged to the skies. Why would a company spend money a) on developing these logics and b) on saving these rights, which, for a company like Activision Blizz, means costs over 100k and some thousand bucks each year to keep it. Just to have the right blocked for them? Naive.
HS is rigged. its bound to give you some luck and some bad luck. thats the way it is. try playing aggro you will encounter anti aggro decks, then you switch to combo you will queue to aggro decks.. anyone playing long enough know this is fact.
It isn't. No good player will whine that MM and RNG are rigged against them. For proof you need nit look further than post history of users who claim that it is. Regulars in the salt thread and every other whine thread on hearthpwn.
I achieved multiple high legends, are at 100% winrate so far this season with Highlander Mage (even though it's only 13 games so far :P) and still think it is rigged. With every day more I play this game my doubt this game is completely random rises. Of course I am salty, hell yeah. Because there is more than this, design decisions etc.
But there are so many situations where RNG decides the game with the perfect outcome it's against the every odd. Of course it happens, people also win lotteries. But it happens way to often.
And I repeat myself everytime: This company owns the rights behind a logic for rigged matchmaking. This fact alone rises the chances it is rigged to the skies. Why would a company spend money a) on developing these logics and b) on saving these rights, which, for a company like Activision Blizz, means costs over 100k and some thousand bucks each year to keep it. Just to have the right blocked for them? Naive.
I've explained this multiple times but I will do so again. That patent is for rigging MM in CoD and it pairs f2p players with those who have bought cosmetics in order to showcase them. That is what the actual patent says but people find it easier to apply it to EVERYTHING instead of reading the damn thing.
dude even streamers that make to legend each time in like the first 24 to 48 hours of the season claim that its rigged af and for ppl that only play like 2 hours per day its very hard to reach legend and naturally they get stuck in the pre-legend ranks aka rank 5 to 1 diamond.
what u need is to keep playing until u catch a lucky break on ur matchups, which for them is quite easy as they play 6-8 hours per day.
ive seen that happen to me way too often. the trick is to not stop. example u go from rank 5 to rank 2 or 1 and ur like "today was a good day, im gonna call it a night and climb the rest tomorrow". big fucking mistake. the next day u lose until u cry. u can only reach legend if u go in one sitting of good luck in ur match ups
I'm amazed you finished top 5 legend that one month with a 83-41 record. My highest finish was 800 legend, and my record that month was similar to that. I know I went from rank 5 to legend (in the old system) in 60 games, then continued to rake in legend, and I think the highest I hit was 742. I might need to track down my stats that month (as I use that decktracker program as well), but I remember thinking to myself "wow, winning 2/3 of my total games and I still can't even break top 500." I just assumed I didn't play enough games to grind to the very top, but now I just don't know haha.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Twitch name: Anatak15 NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
Conspiracy theorists (and those in the hearthstone world are really no different) are mentally lazy people who usually convince themselves they are being smart - there is a strong chance they won't even bother to read your post and statitistics as that would require effort...then yet more effort to understand what the stats show.
I'm amazed you finished top 5 legend that one month with a 83-41 record. My highest finish was 800 legend, and my record that month was similar to that. I know I went from rank 5 to legend (in the old system) in 60 games, then continued to rake in legend, and I think the highest I hit was 742. I might need to track down my stats that month (as I use that decktracker program as well), but I remember thinking to myself "wow, winning 2/3 of my total games and I still can't even break top 500." I just assumed I didn't play enough games to grind to the very top, but now I just don't know haha.
It's probably mainly because I played wild and I assume you played on standard.
Another reason is probably the fact that I was only playing six games a day, so I didn't face too many great players early on because most of them probably got on legend very early on while I took my time, so I manage to got to legend in only 47 games (compared with your 60) with a 34 - 13 record (72.34% win rate) as you can see from the print screen (total and legend stats; to get the non-legend stats just subtract the numbers).
I'm amazed you finished top 5 legend that one month with a 83-41 record. My highest finish was 800 legend, and my record that month was similar to that. I know I went from rank 5 to legend (in the old system) in 60 games, then continued to rake in legend, and I think the highest I hit was 742. I might need to track down my stats that month (as I use that decktracker program as well), but I remember thinking to myself "wow, winning 2/3 of my total games and I still can't even break top 500." I just assumed I didn't play enough games to grind to the very top, but now I just don't know haha.
It's probably mainly because I played wild and I assume you played on standard.
Ah yep that would be it exactly haha. So I do still have to quit my job if I want to strive for that top 10 standard finish I guess =P
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Twitch name: Anatak15 NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
dude even streamers that make to legend each time in like the first 24 to 48 hours of the season claim that its rigged af and for ppl that only play like 2 hours per day its very hard to reach legend and naturally they get stuck in the pre-legend ranks aka rank 5 to 1 diamond.
As previously said (and proved my logs/screenshots) I almost never played more than one hour a day (six games per day) and that didn't prevent me from reaching legend, sometimes even high legend almost every month, so it's definitely not true that you need to play for hours and hours to reach it. Six games (one hour per day) with a 55% win rate is enough to reach legend every month.
It's probably mainly because I played wild and I assume you played on standard.
Ah yep that would be it exactly haha. So I do still have to quit my job if I want to strive for that top 10 standard finish I guess =P
Edit my previous answer to you with a bit more context, so you may want to recheck it, but yeah, in standard competition at high legend is definitely fiercer.
I usually entered legend ranks (and start climbing from) at about 2000 place in wild and ended it at about 100 place, while in standard (when I've done that instead) I usually entered at 10000 place, and I think my best ranking was somewhere around 490th place.
Interesting and detailed analysis so thumbs up for that.
I don’t think anyone said that blizzard personally targets them with a 50% win rate curse.
Most debates are about matchmaking and that in many cases they match you against a deck type that has a higher chance of beating yours in order to keep win rates in balance and more than one decks in play. It makes sense as it makes people construct decks that beat the top meta ones and so on, but many people who don’t play “out of the box” top meta decks find it easier to win. Some others who play the decks everyone else does, notice that they face a particular deck type more often than others when they switch decks. It has happened to me when after 50 games of hl mage, I had played against one murloc pally. I then switched to hl hunter and suddenly every other opponent was a murloc pally. yes it might have been a coincidence but it was noticeable and there are far too many people here with similar observations.
It’s then up to you and your skill set to win, but the odds may be against you.
As you correctly pointed out they take into account mmr etc but it’s definitely not random.
Of course win rates across the board are always 50% as one wins one loses so >50% average win rate for all players collectively is by default impossible.
ANother two examples just from this morning. If you seriously play this game and still think this is not completely controlled by Activision $$ Blizz you are completely naive.
Battlegrounds, two games: Both lost in the end due to 1,3% chance and 0,1%. Again. Not the first time. Even calculating the chances alone it is completely impossible the game is not heavily controlled, or better said, rigged.
And now, Arena. The FIFTH GAME OUT OF THE LAST 15!!!!! decided through a "random" generated Dragonqueen Alexstrasza. I quote my last post. Of course those low chances are possible to happen, as people also win lotteries etc. But there is literally not a single chance this is happening that often in that handful of games. It's against all common sense.
And why does it happen to me? Maybe because the last money they got from me were like 1,50 from my Google Pay wallet I had for free for an arena run. The last time they got money from me is a long time ago. And if you read the patent of their rigged matchmaking system, that is exactly something stated in there. You pay or you get matched with players that pay :)
ANother two examples just from this morning. If you seriously play this game and still think this is not completely controlled by Activision $$ Blizz you are completely naive.
Battlegrounds, two games: Both lost in the end due to 1,3% chance and 0,1%. Again. Not the first time. Even calculating the chances alone it is completely impossible the game is not heavily controlled, or better said, rigged.
And now, Arena. The FIFTH GAME OUT OF THE LAST 15!!!!! decided through a "random" generated Dragonqueen Alexstrasza. I quote my last post. Of course those low chances are possible to happen, as people also win lotteries etc. But there is literally not a single chance this is happening that often in that handful of games. It's against all common sense.
And why does it happen to me? Maybe because the last money they got from me were like 1,50 from my Google Pay wallet I had for free for an arena run. The last time they got money from me is a long time ago. And if you read the patent of their rigged matchmaking system, that is exactly something stated in there. You pay or you get matched with players that pay :)
It’s interesting for battlegrounds - if you concede early during a new round you see who else dies. And all this whilst they are still playing happily thinking that all the hits are random...
ANother two examples just from this morning. If you seriously play this game and still think this is not completely controlled by Activision $$ Blizz you are completely naive.
Battlegrounds, two games: Both lost in the end due to 1,3% chance and 0,1%. Again. Not the first time. Even calculating the chances alone it is completely impossible the game is not heavily controlled, or better said, rigged.
And now, Arena. The FIFTH GAME OUT OF THE LAST 15!!!!! decided through a "random" generated Dragonqueen Alexstrasza. I quote my last post. Of course those low chances are possible to happen, as people also win lotteries etc. But there is literally not a single chance this is happening that often in that handful of games. It's against all common sense.
And why does it happen to me? Maybe because the last money they got from me were like 1,50 from my Google Pay wallet I had for free for an arena run. The last time they got money from me is a long time ago. And if you read the patent of their rigged matchmaking system, that is exactly something stated in there. You pay or you get matched with players that pay :)
It’s interesting for battlegrounds - if you concede early during a new round you see who else dies. And all this whilst they are still playing happily thinking that all the hits are random...
The hits aren't any less random because they take time to resolve/animate, you understand that right?
I decided to make this thread because I recently saw a lot of posts of people claiming that Hearthstone's MM is rigged and if you go over 50% win rate it "cheats" you by queueing you against your counters, give you bad cards in the mulligan or draw, etc.
Of course, like everyone else, I had my highs and lows (with win/lose streaks going on two digits range at times), but I never felt that the system is rigged or that I'm cheated in any way, and by tracking my win rates at the end of each month I was able to notice two things: that each and every month I got over 50% win rate and that the win rate was pretty consistent at the end of each month.
But enough with the "feeling"; I should better get to the facts and give you the cold numbers. But, before that, I should probably give some details about my play style to better get the context: I play at most six games per day, which take an hour at most (so I usually average less than 180 games per month), with the best possible deck that matches my daily quest (so that means that I don't play a deck enough to really master it and that I don't always play tier 1 decks because not all classes have them). I'm also a decent player (reaching legend in most months and having a couple of top legend rankings), but I'm definitely nowhere close to calling myself an expert, a hardcore, or a pro player.
And now the numbers (print screens to prove them will be provided at the end of the post):
December 2017: 61% win rate (83-52) January 2018: 68% win rate (57-27) February 2018: 68% win rate (61-29) March 2018: 62% win rate (92-56) April 2018: 58% win rate (104-76) May 2018: 57% win rate (79-59) June 2018: 67% win rate (85-41)
--- that was my best month ever, ending the month in top 5 legend and holding for a while even the #1 legend, at which point I had a hard time finding new challenges in the game so took a half-year break ---
January 2019: 66% win rate (129-65) February 2019: 57% win rate (112-85) March 2019: 61% win rate (114-72) April 2019: 61% win rate (81-51) May 2019: 57% win rate (79-59) June 2019: 74% win rate (34-12) July 2019: 67% (8-4) August 2019: 57% (134-100) September 2019: 61% (17-11) October 2019: 57% (79-59) November 2019: 57% (75-57) December 2019: 57% (75-57) January 2020: 57% (35-26) February 2020: 58% (50-36) March 2020: 61% (35-22) April 2020: 57% (103-77)
The average (excluding the two months with less than 50 games) was 60.1%; out of the 21 tracked months only four months (two which were during the old system where we were all resetted back to rank 18, so first few games were almost auto wins and two during which I had a lot of luck and managed to end the month in top 10 legend) had a variation of more than 3% from my average 60% win rate, while during the rest of 17 out of 21 I consistently had between 57% and 63% win rate. And, btw, this month I'm also at 58% win rate far now.
I think that, while it can still somehow be seen as anecdotical evidence since they're just my personal games, there is enough evidence to see that there is a pattern that says that no, the game is not forcing everyone at 50% win rate, but it just aims too point everyone toward that value via MMR, but, ultimately, everyone's win rate is a personal constant dependent of their skill compared with the skill of the average player - a better player will have higher than 50% win rate (the better the player, the better the win rate) and a bad player will have lower than 50% win rate (the worse the player, the lower the win rate) - the MMR is simply trying to limit those variations so we don't end up having people with 80% and people with 20% win rates.
So, seriously, if you think Blizzard is artificially capping your win rate at 50% win rate and it simply doesn't let you break over it, how you explain the fact that in 23 tracked months, spawning over three years and a lot of various expansions and metas my win rate never fall bellow 57% (and that while still being a rather regular/casual player playing at most one hour a day and switching decks/classes depending on whatever daily quest I get)?
Working hard to celebrate Blizzards excellent A.I. ability to make it all ook like non-rigging. Reminding me of the flatlanders 'proving' that flat is all there is. Anyways the only credible way is an independent investigation into Blizzard MMR/RNG mechanics. And with independent I mean independent.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
We make our world significant through the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers.
Working hard to celebrate Blizzards excellent A.I. ability to make it all ook like non-rigging. Reminding me of the flatlanders 'proving' that flat is all there is. Anyways the only credible way is an independent investigation into Blizzard MMR/RNG mechanics. And with independent I mean independent.
When you have 24 months worth of data of both ranked and arena games all converging to about the same (+/-3%) win rate, which is quite different than the average 50%, I think it's quite obvious that the system is not rigged to keep us at 50% win rate (because otherwise, it would do a terrible job letting me constantly score over 57% win rate.
Thanks. Good points. MMR is not that mysterious, it will try to make your winrate 50%, but will be unable to succeed as players do have different skills, and the top players have no higher levels to climb to. However, a player with very high MMR will be punished harder by losses.
Good job reaching 67% winrate over a month, that is probably close to as high as possible in this game.
This is how the top GM in Starcraft 2 looks atm, with one player way ahead in MMR (7k numbers)
Editor of the Heartpwn Legendary Crafting Guide:
https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/card-discussion/205920-legendary-tier-list-crafting-guide
It isn't. No good player will whine that MM and RNG are rigged against them. For proof you need nit look further than post history of users who claim that it is. Regulars in the salt thread and every other whine thread on hearthpwn.
The Ladder is rigged : True ! And not only the Ladder.
I achieved multiple high legends, are at 100% winrate so far this season with Highlander Mage (even though it's only 13 games so far :P) and still think it is rigged. With every day more I play this game my doubt this game is completely random rises. Of course I am salty, hell yeah. Because there is more than this, design decisions etc.
But there are so many situations where RNG decides the game with the perfect outcome it's against the every odd. Of course it happens, people also win lotteries. But it happens way to often.
And I repeat myself everytime: This company owns the rights behind a logic for rigged matchmaking. This fact alone rises the chances it is rigged to the skies. Why would a company spend money a) on developing these logics and b) on saving these rights, which, for a company like Activision Blizz, means costs over 100k and some thousand bucks each year to keep it.
Just to have the right blocked for them? Naive.
HS is rigged. its bound to give you some luck and some bad luck. thats the way it is.
try playing aggro you will encounter anti aggro decks, then you switch to combo you will queue to aggro decks.. anyone playing long enough know this is fact.
I've explained this multiple times but I will do so again. That patent is for rigging MM in CoD and it pairs f2p players with those who have bought cosmetics in order to showcase them. That is what the actual patent says but people find it easier to apply it to EVERYTHING instead of reading the damn thing.
dude even streamers that make to legend each time in like the first 24 to 48 hours of the season claim that its rigged af and for ppl that only play like 2 hours per day its very hard to reach legend and naturally they get stuck in the pre-legend ranks aka rank 5 to 1 diamond.
what u need is to keep playing until u catch a lucky break on ur matchups, which for them is quite easy as they play 6-8 hours per day.
ive seen that happen to me way too often. the trick is to not stop. example u go from rank 5 to rank 2 or 1 and ur like "today was a good day, im gonna call it a night and climb the rest tomorrow". big fucking mistake. the next day u lose until u cry. u can only reach legend if u go in one sitting of good luck in ur match ups
I'm amazed you finished top 5 legend that one month with a 83-41 record. My highest finish was 800 legend, and my record that month was similar to that. I know I went from rank 5 to legend (in the old system) in 60 games, then continued to rake in legend, and I think the highest I hit was 742. I might need to track down my stats that month (as I use that decktracker program as well), but I remember thinking to myself "wow, winning 2/3 of my total games and I still can't even break top 500." I just assumed I didn't play enough games to grind to the very top, but now I just don't know haha.
Twitch name: Anatak15
NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
Conspiracy theorists (and those in the hearthstone world are really no different) are mentally lazy people who usually convince themselves they are being smart - there is a strong chance they won't even bother to read your post and statitistics as that would require effort...then yet more effort to understand what the stats show.
It's probably mainly because I played wild and I assume you played on standard.
Another reason is probably the fact that I was only playing six games a day, so I didn't face too many great players early on because most of them probably got on legend very early on while I took my time, so I manage to got to legend in only 47 games (compared with your 60) with a 34 - 13 record (72.34% win rate) as you can see from the print screen (total and legend stats; to get the non-legend stats just subtract the numbers).
This thread helped me to delete my account. Thank you and continue the good work.
Ah yep that would be it exactly haha. So I do still have to quit my job if I want to strive for that top 10 standard finish I guess =P
Twitch name: Anatak15
NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
As previously said (and proved my logs/screenshots) I almost never played more than one hour a day (six games per day) and that didn't prevent me from reaching legend, sometimes even high legend almost every month, so it's definitely not true that you need to play for hours and hours to reach it. Six games (one hour per day) with a 55% win rate is enough to reach legend every month.
Edit my previous answer to you with a bit more context, so you may want to recheck it, but yeah, in standard competition at high legend is definitely fiercer.
I usually entered legend ranks (and start climbing from) at about 2000 place in wild and ended it at about 100 place, while in standard (when I've done that instead) I usually entered at 10000 place, and I think my best ranking was somewhere around 490th place.
Quite a bit different. :P
Interesting and detailed analysis so thumbs up for that.
I don’t think anyone said that blizzard personally targets them with a 50% win rate curse.
Most debates are about matchmaking and that in many cases they match you against a deck type that has a higher chance of beating yours in order to keep win rates in balance and more than one decks in play. It makes sense as it makes people construct decks that beat the top meta ones and so on, but many people who don’t play “out of the box” top meta decks find it easier to win. Some others who play the decks everyone else does, notice that they face a particular deck type more often than others when they switch decks. It has happened to me when after 50 games of hl mage, I had played against one murloc pally. I then switched to hl hunter and suddenly every other opponent was a murloc pally. yes it might have been a coincidence but it was noticeable and there are far too many people here with similar observations.
It’s then up to you and your skill set to win, but the odds may be against you.
As you correctly pointed out they take into account mmr etc but it’s definitely not random.
Of course win rates across the board are always 50% as one wins one loses so >50% average win rate for all players collectively is by default impossible.
ANother two examples just from this morning. If you seriously play this game and still think this is not completely controlled by Activision $$ Blizz you are completely naive.
Battlegrounds, two games: Both lost in the end due to 1,3% chance and 0,1%. Again. Not the first time. Even calculating the chances alone it is completely impossible the game is not heavily controlled, or better said, rigged.
And now, Arena. The FIFTH GAME OUT OF THE LAST 15!!!!! decided through a "random" generated Dragonqueen Alexstrasza.
I quote my last post. Of course those low chances are possible to happen, as people also win lotteries etc.
But there is literally not a single chance this is happening that often in that handful of games. It's against all common sense.
And why does it happen to me? Maybe because the last money they got from me were like 1,50 from my Google Pay wallet I had for free for an arena run. The last time they got money from me is a long time ago.
And if you read the patent of their rigged matchmaking system, that is exactly something stated in there. You pay or you get matched with players that pay :)
It’s interesting for battlegrounds - if you concede early during a new round you see who else dies. And all this whilst they are still playing happily thinking that all the hits are random...
The hits aren't any less random because they take time to resolve/animate, you understand that right?
Working hard to celebrate Blizzards excellent A.I. ability to make it all ook like non-rigging. Reminding me of the flatlanders 'proving' that flat is all there is. Anyways the only credible way is an independent investigation into Blizzard MMR/RNG mechanics. And with independent I mean independent.
We make our world significant through the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers.
When you have 24 months worth of data of both ranked and arena games all converging to about the same (+/-3%) win rate, which is quite different than the average 50%, I think it's quite obvious that the system is not rigged to keep us at 50% win rate (because otherwise, it would do a terrible job letting me constantly score over 57% win rate.