Lately I've been playing the warrior deck (yes that one) and this morning I got a win streak facing almost exclusively dh. Like not even in the release day I ever saw so many. Some of them sent me a friend request to express their opinion about my mother and other topics.
im not really an expert but I feel like the warrior nerfs will impact on the deck and on the meta more than people seems to think. Many times after a swing turn with skipper+ armorsmith I ended up having a 3/1 bloodworm mercenary on my board, plus all the other stuff of course. It's not a small deal.
At the same time dh doesn't seem to be hit That hard. I'm afraid there will be even more aggro dh dominance after the update. Don't get me wrong I'm not complaining about the nerfs, i just feel dh powerplays are untouched.
Also the buffs to paladin and shaman are cool but it's not going to change the state of those classes, hopefully I'm wrong.
So, the question is do you think the meta will be more various and maybe more towards control?
DH really hasn't been hit at all. There are a few cases where now some games which were not winnable would become winnable (perhaps a few percent of games) but what will more likely happen, as you point out, is that people will just run the more aggro list. I think paladin will do reasonably well though vs the aggro DH lists because they can curve out better and get lots of healing with their lifesteal spell vs an aggro DH who goes wide (especially when combined with wild pyromancer). Paladin actually does quite well in a game where it can go for a turn 1 play into hand of adal on turn 2, so I think it will help them somewhat. They will still though be absolutely useless vs rogue, priest and mage. Paladin lacks the end game threats but maybe tirion will be more playable now if rogues drop the secret list and go for the stealth list instead.
I don't think the meta will shift off of warrior, rogue and DH though. The rogue gala stealth list is still very strong and boarcontrol mentioned even before the nerfs were announced he thought the stealth list may be the better list. This made some sense in a meta dominated by DH since DH doesn't really have anything you are thrilled about having to use a stunner on. I think that will continue when DH run the aggro list. I also think the aggro list may be better for climbing. The warrior deck will still be very strong and I don't think it will make a huge difference. If you are able to bloodsworn merc something vs DH you have likely won the game anyway and the body may not matter much.
The shaman buffs don't mean much since shaman has no late game and no card draw. Its late game is playing archivist and waiting for the opponent to fatigue, a horrible game plan.
I think hunter though will still be quite strong. The face hunter package running the beasts to do big charge damage has taken a hit and maybe that will be taken out and people will gravitate more to the dragon hunter and highlander hunter decks. The face hunter deck wasn't that great anyway because it did nothing for the first 3 turns when it just quests and hero powers. It just gets run over by more tempo orientated decks which make proactive plays in the early game as well as priest/warrior. But highlander hunter should be quite the powerhouse, although it will have a horrible matchup vs aggro DH. It is already a bad matchup but it will get worse the more aggressive the lists are. Highlander hunter does very bad vs aggro.
I think some people are underestimating the nerf that Crimson Sigil Runner got. It might even be cut from the deck entirely. It's either going to hurt the cycle in dh or it will hurt its early game. And these are 2 very important things in dh. It will still be really powerful, no doubt. But opening with a 1 attack sigil runner won't feel nearly as great as 2 attack.
Even though paladin only had 1 card buffed. I think the buff is more significant than shaman's 3 buffs together. Aldor Attendant is a key card in the libram package. And i've had numerous times where i didn't find the time to weave it in for 2 mana. Making it kind of clunky. The deck just runs so many 2-cost cards.. And no 1-drops, unless you put in 1-mana cards just for the stats (which doesn't help your main gameplan, just contest the board a bit). Adding in those 1-drops means you have to cut other, better cards. With Aldor Attendant at 1 mana, it will be way more consistent and a lot more pro-active to play this card. I hope it will be enough!
Shaman still lacks a win condition. I will try quest shaman with The Lurker Below because now this will just be a really solid card with a lot of potential. Against wide boards it's a really good swing card. But i still feel shaman will be at the bottom of classes.
Rogue will probably barely notice the difference, maybe switch package a bit. But galakrond and endless lackeys will still be a pain in the ass to deal with.
Warrior nerfs seem ok. Not too heavily nerfed.
But with multiple decks going down in powerlevel and others going up, the meta will definately change. If only one new deck is able to arise with these changes, it would already cause a shift in the entire meta, making room for even more things. I'm very optimistic as you can probably tell by the long post ;-)
Tbh I don't understand the sigil runner argument. yes I see your points, but still, the only scenario where it really gets worse is if you play it turn 1. Otherwise it's still a cheap cycle with good synergy with your other outcast cards.
About paladin who knows, maybe the buff will actually be enough to see librams playable in ladder.
Demon Hunter is still a new class, so people will keep playing it regardless of how powerful it is. Veterans - probably to get 1000 wins, and newbies, because Tempo DH is probably the most budget deck you can get (also with free legendaries). Meta will definitely shift and I supose Tempo DH is gonna become tier 2 (in legend at least), since it already is at the verge of falling down there. However, I don't think popularity of the deck will change. Definitely a different future is coming for Warrior, since with the nerfs Egg Warrior will become somewhat worse, but Risky Skipper exists, so the deck will still be very strong. What I am kinda' excited about is Spell Shaman and Quest Warlock. Both of these are still just getting discovered by the community and will probably see more and more play. Moreover, Galakrond Priest and Highlander Priest are my bets on tier 1 possibilities.
1. Galakrond Rogue and Hunters were barely touched - they will be on top, no question. I would say Hunter is going to be really dominant (since it has a positive match up vs Rogue) - so brace yourselves. People complained about DH, let's see how they will like Hunters instead.
2. I presume DH will still be good. Priestess doesn't loose much of its power, because, at least in my case, it almost never lived the next turn after coming into play. If it did - gg. I don't think it is as significant hit as people give it credit for. It is a hit nevertheless, but not that impactful. Sigil Runner is actually a bigger deal. 2/1 is a respectable size which can trade with a 2 drop or just deal 2 dmg to face. With this change it turns into a merely cycle card without any aggressive presence. I don't know if it will still be played, probably yes, because every card draw matters, but it is a big hit. Overall I think DH will be in a weird place - still good, but with the abundance of counters to it on the ladder and another round of nerfs, there's no way it will remain on top (which it already fell off due to Warriors).
3. Warrior got hit and on top of that it's biggest farming fiesta - DH - got hit as well. But on the other hand Gala Rogue will most likely be there somewhere near top and Warrior has a good match-up, so it will remain a viable option. Viable, not the best.
4. Warlock isn't affected at all. It got its card hit? The most popular variant of Zoo utilizes Charge and is a glorified face deck. As long as you still give 2 attack to Wolfrider and Boars, the change doesn't matter.
5. People who think Mage will be good make me laugh. Mage can't win against Hunters. Period. It's very one-sided match-up. It is actually much easier to win against Demon Hunter than Hunter. So... if Hunter was already very good and popular and it dind't get hit - and Rogue, which it wants to counter got hit very easily - and DH - another cheap easy to play deck - got hit... what do you think will happen to Mages, who are terrible vs Hunter, huh? No, Mage will not be a good option.
6. Priest will probably be a viable option. Nothing particularly good, nothing bad. Just a pick to consider for those, who enjoy a control game.
7. Buffs to Shaman are nothing, class was bad and will remain bad. Druid remains obsolete too. No idea about Paladin. If I was to bet my money on whether it will be better or not, I would say it will remain on the bottom (talking about Libram Paladin). But since I didn't play the deck itself or against it much, I don't want to base my opinion solely on match-ups.
Overall be prepared for the Hunter to be a defining class. Not saying it will be the best. It will be defining. Good decks will have to have a positive match-up against it or beat almost everything else so that Hunter match-up is less important (Galakrond Rogue). It will be both strong and popular, but not terribly broken - just like DH was after last nerfs.