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Win rates are by default kept around 50% by the published matchmaking rule. If you are better than your MMR and you have a win rate of let's say 55% then your MMR will increase, you will start facing better opponents (and/or decks) and your win rate will again regress towards 50%. The only exceptions are the very top players or the very bottom ones as those cannot always be matched with players of the same level
See for yourself
https://hsreplay.net/replay/whg6vUkbfRZZD8qi4sciXa
you can keep on with the ridiculous strawmanning and rhetoric and I get it...that is all you got. But your accusation is that I am a frustrated player blaming the system for my failing. When I inform you that i am not failing, I am just observing a biased system, you jump to hyperbole and mockery.
So to any actual observers out there, take note that when the person arguing with you resorts to ad hominem attacks, strawman arguments, and rhetorical circles...it means they are are full of it. Hearthstone is rigged.
All I see is weakness!
No random cards is bad too. Take a look at DH. There is no randomness to it and it is extremely consistent and basically unbeatable. Look at the stats for top 1k legend and diamond through legend for tempo DH after the patch. Literally nothing has changed. In fact in many ways the deck is stronger (they weren't running priestess anyway and double mana burn is absolutely busted in high legend - makes the deck near unbeatable). Randomness sometimes feels better then a deck which consistently and predictably wins all the time. The strongest decks in the meta don't have much randomness. The randomness in warrior is where the bomb wrangler bombs go and how much they hit for. Otherwise the deck just consistently wins and there is basically nothing you can do about it. You need some god randomness to have a chance and then people complain that the randomess that gets someone a 30% win rate against DH or warrior is bad for the game.
There is absolutely algorithms built and designed with the intent to keep you coming back for more. How they achieve that can be done a number of different ways.
I have nearly 10,000 total wins and have been playing since beta and I have found some interesting consistencies over that period of time that happen again and again and again.
One of the biggest observations that I have noticed is that when I sit down to play my first hearthstone game for the day I take one to two or maybe three losses in a row and then I begin to start seeing wins and only after I have played 10 to 15 games at one sitting will I start to see a normalized pattern of 60%+ win rates, but the first two or three games are almost always guaranteed losses. I'm convinced that's some kind of an algorithm.
Another thing I've noticed is that I always have higher win rates between 2 and 8 p.m. Whether that's an algorithm or just a bunch of noobs flooding the ranked competition... I'm not sure.
Another big observation that I have made is that I almost always lose after I hit the concede button. This probably occurs 80 to 90% of the time. I don't think that's anything other than an algorithm pitting me against the hardest matchup intentionally or putting very bad cards in my hand on the following game after I have conceded giving me very bad odds of winning.
Anyone who uses a deck tracker can also see a pattern began to emerge. Win rates of a particular deck Spike on one day and plummet the next and then spike again and then plummet again. This is done because Blizzard can build an algorithm that pits a mismatch of a deck that is likely to lose against another deck. Some nights I will see one third of my games will be mage, 16% will be warlock, and 16% will be priest. On other nights I will see completely different match-ups with different hero types that don't resemble that pattern at all. Is it random? ...not likely. Blizzard is doing their best to keep any one player from having a runaway win streak. The highest win streak ever recorded I believe was 75 wins in a row. Blizzard doesn't want that to ever happen again.
Again I don't have proof of Blizzard purposefully doing these things but it is something that is very consistent and it's something that I observed for over 7 years.
I'm convinced that algorithms are a very important part of the game design to keep you coming back again and again to get those wins... which Blizzard needs to keep the game full and profitable.
It's always about the bottom line or the company ceases to exist.
There may be some manipulating rng in cards for those abilities, and probably some machup in opponents and the cards they have in the deck... But I don't belive there are rng manipulating ingame to make one part lose of win... Just think it over, it makes sense for the game to be, not just a random lotto...
Well said - this is exactly my point but the “it’s all random” supporters seem to not notice it... For them there is no pattern, no different matchups depending on what type of deck you play... nothing, all random.
to those naive souls who believe it’s random - you know there is extensive research out there from top universities that describes how matchmaking in online games works, how players behaviours are captured and analysed, that there are patents that prevent competitors from using the same matchmaking techniques right??
Oh I know what you will say “ I’m an evil soul, it’s all random” lol
The problem is that you can very much see patterns that reflect *you* and your play patterns rather than some algorithm Blizzard is using.
Bushmaster22 describes a pattern that doesn't fit at all with my player experience. I usually win the first three to four games I'm playing before starting to lose more games, and I usually stop playing after losing a couple of games in a row. Why does that pattern occur? Well, after the first couple of games, I usually get a little bored and start watching YouTube in the background or some other thing - hence I make more mistakes and lose more games, which makes me realise that I'm bored and I stop playing.
Perhaps Bushmaster22 takes a couple of games to get in the zone and start winning, and perhaps they lose after conceding because they're tilted. My point is clear, I hope: these individual patterns are reflecting *us*, not Blizzard's secret algorithm. In order to prove such an algorithm, there must be a *collective* pattern, which means that thousands of players must experience the exact same pattern. That's how the pity timer was revealed, remember? The fact is that massive amounts of data are collected every day through deck trackers, and yet nothing has emerged that support the RNG manipulation and matchfixing described in this thread.
Yes, there is absolutely done a lot of research in how to keep player engagement going and there is no doubt in my mind that daily quests, the ranked overhaul etc. have been designed to maximize player engagement and keep people playing, but I simply do not believe that Blizzard is fixing games by rigging matchmaking, draw, discover options and so forth.
If you think there are patterns play a busted deck which is consistent and never fails with no random outcomes. For example, tempo DH. They don't discover at all. Also tempo warrior. Tempo DH beats everything but warrior without any random cards.
Marvelous - The 'problem' of RNG is not RNG itself but its origin making RNG a suspect which it isn't. And that origin of all problems with HS is too steep RPS.
Bear with me. Unfavourable matchups takes skill and luck to win. But it seems like people playing agressieve/tempodecks naturally complain less about RNG. Lets analyse deeper. 3 things.
The fact that there a high and low RNG decks is often overlooked in the discussion. Skill isn't a decisive factor given a too steep RPS. The solution is simple: balance RPS better, meaning give everybody a more balance draw ability, shallow-out RPS as everybody has a fair chance to win a game. Only then RNG cease to be a factor of annoyance.
The result as it is now is that card design favours a certain target audience. If you don't belong, you are apt to complain. Fair enough. That is why it is so stupid target audience types conclude lack of skill when people point to RNG. For me though it is just an RPS-balance problem.
We make our world significant through the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers.
It's time that the mods locked this thread. The amount of tinfoil being throw around is sure to kill some sea turtles.