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Hi.
For people who do not have all the vanilla cards yet:
After some time of buying GvG packs, there will come point where the probabilities of getting better value from buying card packs will eventually become fairly even between GvG and vanilla card packs.
By better value, I mean (outside of personal preferences or specifically desired cards for certain deck builds) is average chance for getting new (not owned yet) card + average dust acquired from the pack. Both of these metrics will be weighted against the quantity of different rarities between the 2 sets, their chance to appear in card pack, their disenchanted dust cost, ... (other factors I'm not aware of).
I would be very much interested in having a simple tool to calculate this ratio / comparison, I hope other players would as well. There might be even more ideas from others about what it could take into account (aside from strictly statistical chances, e.g. preference for class cards, mechs, etc.).
Does something similar already exist ? If not, this might be very nice addition to already cool Heartpwn toolset.
If you have more ideas or would like to have this kind of functionality, let others (+ developers) know :) .
Well, I eventually need (want) all of them. I'll try to give an example of my point (model situation in some near future, my thinking process, numbers are just random):
- I still don't have from vanilla: 8 legendaries, 5 epics, 2 rares, 7 commons
at the same time
- I still don't have from GvG: 5 legendaries, 13 epics, 4 rares, 6 commons
Buying which pack will probably give me more value ? (Based on all chances / quantities / factors of buying each pack.)
Btw, drop rate is only 1 of the factors, so even if they are same, the overall answer to that question is not as simple as "they statistically give you same value".
As side note for your approach: If you don't see this as a possible question for yourself, there's no need to deny others from wanting something like it, is it ? :)
If you want to have a complete collection, you should always buy the pack which gives more chance to give you a card which you do not have. Card is more valuable than dust and the dust you get from any of them is the same.
When the expansion comes, it will be worth to get the GvG packs first as you do not have those cards for sure and work from there.
I plan to continue to do arena and use the dust to finish off my expert packs and at some point be able to finish off GVG before the next release.
I have also stopped dusting cards. I would rather have the 5000 worth of dust in card form, then dust. I will be dusting my 2 flares and auctioneers because I don't need them and for full value I may get another at some point or I'll just craft them.
szabozalan:
1. "pack which gives more chance to give you" - That's what I want the tool to help me with, determine the value of both options, so I can compare them.
2. "Card is more valuable than dust" - Yes, and that's one of the factors in that value estimation. So the set from which you miss more cards, is generally (emphasis on generally) better. But it's not the only factor.
3. "dust you get from any of them is the same" - No. Different rarities give different amounts of dust, and basic / golden version of same card as well.
4. "When the expansion comes, it will be worth to get the GvG packs first" - First, yes. But at some point (as I tried to explain in initial post) there will be balance between the 2 sets. How do I know when it is, and how to know at any point, which pack is better to buy currently for me (depending on what I got in the last one I bought) ? That's exactly what I will use that tool for.
5. "you do not have those cards for sure and work from there" - That is still true for me even in vanilla deck. Should I just continue to buy vanilla packs + disenchant + craft vanilla cards until I have all of them, before I start to buy GvG packs ? Not really, this would be an awfull waste of gold / resources. Just trying to show you where your approach is not efficient (statistically speaking).
szabozalan (correction of my response):
to point 3. again: "dust you get from any of them is the same" - No. Different rarities give different amounts of dust, and basic / golden version of same card as well.
Maybe I misunderstood you originally. Yes, I get the same dust (meaning the same type of resource, universal for crafting cards from any set) from both sets. But, since chances of getting new (not owned yet) card differ, then also chances of getting old (already owned) card differ. This chance, + the chance of different rarities change the average dust I would extract from different packs.
You will have same chance to get normal/rare/epic/legendary/golden in both decks. It doesn't depend on card ratio in the card set. So you get same dust "value" if you disregard owned cards.
But I'd go for GvG personally - there will definitely be balance changes that will let you disenchant cards for full value.
1: calculating the exact percentage seems a bit complicated as lots of factors are involved. The basic and not entirely accurate method is that you look at the number of cards in each set at the given rarity and calculate a ratio with the number of cards you have at that rarity. This way you can compare where you have more chance. It is not perfect as there are more factors involved, but the differnce should not be huge to be meaningful.
3: what I meant is that you have the same chance to get a legend/epic/rare card from both sets, so the average dust value you get from the packs will be the same. You have the same chance to get a golden legendary from both sets, so this should not influence your decision when you mostly get dust from the packs.
Thiron_:
"So you get same dust "value" if you disregard owned cards." Well, that's the main thing, I want it to know based on what I have.
And the other thing I want to achieve, is to do it most efficiently along the way. Simplified example (again, numbers are random, just to illustrate the trend):
I now have 70% of cards. After I earn 5000 more gold, I can achieve having 90% of cards if I buy the most effective way, or just 80% if I buy one-way.
That's not what the tool can predict, but it can provide me with knowing what is the most effective way for each single pack along the way.
I'm pretty sure I could whip up a spread sheet, that does what you ask if someone could list the average number of commons, rares, and legendaries per pack (same for goldens), as well the number of each in each set.
MrKruzan: I decided I will try to do it myself, at least initial draft of such spreadsheet.
I tried to find (google) the drop chances, and was surprised to learn, that they are not known. I assumed this was public information and didn't expect that Blizzard keeps it a secret. Since this would be one of the basic factors, it's not possible to calculate what I wanted without it. Although I don't see any reason from Blizzard's perspective to hide it, there's not much I can do about it myself.
If anyone has different or better information, please let us know.