Hearthpwn

Better survival hopefully. Burglar rogue is less than 50% win rate at the moment.

Quote from Kaladin >>

Correct me if I'm wrong, but historically, decks/cards were not nerfed based on popularity, but on sheer strength (and other factors, which popularity was not one of). 

Rogue has ticked the strength checkbox long before the popularity one. Most people were on Bomb Warrior hype train during the first week of release that Tempo Rogue went a bit unnoticed, now people are realising how strong/fast/cheap Tempo Rogue is and switching to it.  

looks like rogue have now a tweaked version that beats warriors!

https://hsreplay.net/decks/9Qq6zQBchtj78ut64LgWxb/#tab=overview

Quote from scarfdeath >>

looks like rogue have now a tweaked version that beats warriors!

https://hsreplay.net/decks/9Qq6zQBchtj78ut64LgWxb/#tab=overview

 To bad its worse against the Mirror match, so its no worth running, because the ladder is full of Rogues...

Bro, do you think warriors can afford to keep their brawl till they play Nomi? Most likely before the rogue's played Nomi warrior is already forced to use a brawl on shit like miscreant and their thousands random 2 drops.

Then rogues does a myra and plays Nomi, shadow step chef. Then plays Nomi again. Shadow steps again. Then Nomi again.

How do you deal with 3 waves? Let's not forget about the extra discovered shadow steps from the lackeys if they need it.

Lmao, but yeah, rogue is totally fine, second worst win rate against their only counter is only 51.4%.

Quote from BentiZ >>

Can we nerf the players who plays Rouge? They never trade if there isn't a taunt in their way. Facestone

 Sooo true! 

It is a problem indeed that a Rouge atm is able to rush down your face in like 4-5 turns, no matter what class you play. And I have yet to see a Rouge that does go for a single trade during a matchup. It feels kinda the same as when "cancer hunter" was a thing. Non-interactiveness and just rushing to the face has kinda always existed in hearthstone, but have always felt unhealthy and not to fun to play against.

What I have been wondering though is how someone gets to have fun always going for face no mather what. It's kinda the same movement over and over without thinking. Kinda feels like working in a factory to me, which people are not known to enjoy to much. 

scorpyon:

Wow that's insane... I think I never posted here but seeing your comment, I just wanted to ask you if you were serious. You have 3662 posts here so you are supposed to know the game a little bit, do you seriously believe that zoo is better than rogue right now?

The game is literally unplayable now because of Rogue.

Main issue for rogue ONLY fcking - Leeerrrrrrrrrrroyyyyyyyyyy Jenkins. Impossible to do anything for this. 

As bomb warrior easy to counter rogue. Best match up for me. But with different classes main problem is Charge minions Leroy broke whole hs game.

The latest assessment from VS regarding Rogue:

"Lackey Rogue sits at the top of the meta for another week, is the sole Tier 1 deck at higher levels of play, and exhibits a perfect meta score at every bracket. What’s interesting to note is that its performance against the field is continuing to decline due to the hostility shown by every other meta deck trying its best to gain percentages against Rogue. This establishes Lackey Rogue as the strongest and most influential deck in the format, but it might not be as historically “broken” as Jade Druid in KFT, Even Paladin in WW or Midrange Shaman in ONIK. Its global win rate would be very reasonable if not for its meta warping play rate" (my emphasis).

In other words, the popularity is more problematic than the deck's power level. The way things looks right now, further refinement of other decks, especially the emerging Secret Hunter, could result in Rogue losing some of its edge, which would probably be followed by a decline in playrate.

Now, Team5 could say that another week or two might change the situation. Or they listen to people screaming for nerfs and Rogue becomes a much weaker class because Classic cards get destroyed first. Guess what will happen.

And here's what awaits Rogue players after the nerfs have happened:

"Druid is shaping up to be a one trick pony, and that trick is suffering from the refinement of other strategies, especially at higher levels of play. [...] Unfortunately, there’s not much to speak of Token Druid’s ability to improve. As you’ve seen in other classes, new cards constantly pop into our view and attract our attention, making us constantly adjust to changes in the meta, swapping weaker cards with clearly stronger cards. In Druid, this isn’t happening.  [...] Beyond that, all other Druid strategies do not show any real signs of life. Heal Druid has proven to be remarkably weak, as neither Rogues nor Warriors truly care about your healing, and Malygos Druid is a poor imitation of the deck it once was. Until the next Wild Growth comes around, the circle of life is over."

Kinda feels like the community is the real problem here. One half jumps on the bandwagon and religiously plays whatever is "the best deck", and the other half complains about it until a class gets crippled.

Quote from Dunscot >>

The latest assessment from VS regarding Rogue:

"Lackey Rogue sits at the top of the meta for another week, is the sole Tier 1 deck at higher levels of play, and exhibits a perfect meta score at every bracket. What’s interesting to note is that its performance against the field is continuing to decline due to the hostility shown by every other meta deck trying its best to gain percentages against Rogue. This establishes Lackey Rogue as the strongest and most influential deck in the format, but it might not be as historically “broken” as Jade Druid in KFT, Even Paladin in WW or Midrange Shaman in ONIK. Its global win rate would be very reasonable if not for its meta warping play rate" (my emphasis).

In other words, the popularity is more problematic than the deck's power level. The way things looks right now, further refinement of other decks, especially the emerging Secret Hunter, could result in Rogue losing some of its edge, which would probably be followed by a decline in playrate.

Now, Team5 could say that another week or two might change the situation. Or they listen to people screaming for nerfs and Rogue becomes a much weaker class because Classic cards get destroyed first. Guess what will happen.

And here's what awaits Rogue players after the nerfs have happened:

"Druid is shaping up to be a one trick pony, and that trick is suffering from the refinement of other strategies, especially at higher levels of play. [...] Unfortunately, there’s not much to speak of Token Druid’s ability to improve. As you’ve seen in other classes, new cards constantly pop into our view and attract our attention, making us constantly adjust to changes in the meta, swapping weaker cards with clearly stronger cards. In Druid, this isn’t happening.  [...] Beyond that, all other Druid strategies do not show any real signs of life. Heal Druid has proven to be remarkably weak, as neither Rogues nor Warriors truly care about your healing, and Malygos Druid is a poor imitation of the deck it once was. Until the next Wild Growth comes around, the circle of life is over."

Kinda feels like the community is the real problem here. One half jumps on the bandwagon and religiously plays whatever is "the best deck", and the other half complains about it until a class gets crippled.

 I would also assume that the fact that the deck is really fun to play also accounts to it's high play rate. Also many people(including me) likes to play a deck that has a shot winning every matchup instead of having bunch of 20-80 and 80-20 matchups. Even though rogue has crazy matchup spread (only loses to warrior) the matchups aren't all that one-sided. Both parties have a chance to win.

I admit that i'm a rogue player but the current iteration of rogue feels very fresh and it would be a shame if it got destroyed. If they nerf a key card in blizzard fashion (make it unplayable), it would only make bomb hunter and co take it's spot since the winrate difference is really small between them. 

Also I feel like nerfing cards like preparation is out of the question since it would also cripple all the non-pirate decks (which aren't CURRENTLY dominating). You have to keep it in mind that rogue spells have all been made around preparation, thus nerfing preparation would mean that they would have to rebalance all the rogue core cards (make them more powerful). So that would have to happen during rotation. Edwin is another over powered card in rogue. They should just give other deck better option with dealing with him since he is so iconic card and its hard to believe that they would nerf him after all the time he has been overpowered (he has been the highest winrate card or atleast near the top in almost every rogue deck). He is kind of like preparation in rogue, iconic card that defines the class and other cards have to be balanced around these OP cards.

So why did I bold "CURRENTLY". I have also another take on the nerfs: If they nerf raiding party package, it is possible that another rogue list without weapon will rise in the meta. I have had good succes with those lists and one of their weakness is bad matchup against raiding party rogues.

I'm not sure how that would affect the meta but it is blizzard's job to figure that out. Hope they do a good job :) 

Let's ask actually Rogue players who love and breath Rogue decks what cards they think are overpowered or enabling the deck to be strong.  I don't say this to ask for nerfs or changes to cards, but let's ask them as they play the decks far more than other people.  The Rogue experts is who I would trust first.  Then look at stats such as HSReplay and find out what cards offer the highest win rates, when played, when drawn and so forth.

Even all of this might not give the whole picture.  Sometimes a card ENABLES other cards to work far better then they were ever meant to.

I personally think Raiding Party is the strongest card in the deck.  It draws 3 cards if the Rogue player enables it, which if they have a choice, will do so every single time.  Drawing 3 specific cards in your deck, is really powerful.  Anyone who denies that Raiding Party is not a good card is fooling themselves or lying to everyone else.  Does that card need to be nerfed?  Not necessarily.

Almost all the cards that Rogue abuses centers around Preparation.  That card enables every strategy that Rogue has abused since the beginning of Hearthstone.  Miracle Rogue and Auctioneer love Prep.  Prep and Fan of Knives.  Prep and Vanish.  and so forth.

Does Prep need to be nerfed.  Possibly.  I don't like that idea though but that comes from personal preference.  I think the card is really cool to enable combo cards.  But is it too strong?

Ask a Rogue player that.  What if Prep didn't exist or was not the same card.  Would your deck be as good or strong?

Go ahead Rogue players, you tell us, if Prep is good or not.  Again, not necessarily for nerfing purposes, but how key that card is to almost all Rogue decks.

Well you are not interpreting those HSReplay statistics the right way, there are a lot of factors to take into account. For instance, if a lot of people play one deck, it is going to lower its winrate because of mirror matches. Also, to assess the true power level of a deck, you have to look at the higher level of play because a deck can be easy to play and easy to misplay against. You can't just show this page with raw stats and no filtering and just say "look I demonstrated that zoo is better", doesn't work that way.

Quote from user-8876443 >>

Also I feel like nerfing cards like preparation is out of the question since it would also cripple all the non-pirate decks (which aren't CURRENTLY dominating). You have to keep it in mind that rogue spells have all been made around preparation, thus nerfing preparation would mean that they would have to rebalance all the rogue core cards (make them more powerful).

Again, you could have said the same about Wild Growth and Innervate, only that it applies to most Druid CARDS, not just spells. The majority of the Druid cards cost 4 and more, and they are much more efficient when you can play them earlier than normal. Almost all of these cards are much worse since the nerfs, like good old Druid of the Claw. Ancient of Lore mainly got its strength from ramping, since the card draw is meant to compensate for the cards you used for mana accelleration (similar to how Ultimate Infestation incouraged you to play Nourish for ramp). Was the nerf on the card lifted after the ramping was nerfed as well? Nope, just sucks even harder now.

I agree that Rogue should not get nerfed, especially not the core set. But I have 0 faith in the Devs doing the sensible thing here.

That being said, most Rogue spells are fine as they are. Preparation is vitally important, because Rogues have no means to survive long, and it allows them to be fast and make better use of their tempo-generating cards. Still, many of the Rogue spells have fair effects for the mana cost, and other classes get overcosted and underwhelming cards as well.

Quote from scorpyon >>

Quote from chpatro >>

 

Quote from scorpyon >>

 It's not a case of what I believe. It's what the stats show. And in terms of winrate, the stats (as I demonstrated) prove that Zoolock has a much higher overall winrate than Rogue. 
If you disagree, take it up with HSReplay and ask them if they are serious - you can let them know they are wrong and don't know what they're talking about, if you like. 

Well you are not interpreting those HSReplay statistics the right way, there are a lot of factors to take into account. For instance, if a lot of people play one deck, it is going to lower its winrate because of mirror matches. Also, to assess the true power level of a deck, you have to look at the higher level of play because a deck can be easy to play and easy to misplay against. You can't just show this page with raw stats and no filtering and just say "look I demonstrated that zoo is better", doesn't work that way.

Sorry, but that's simply not true. You can't take the stats and then decide to cherry pick the bits you want to try and justify your opinion. 
The overall winrate is the overall winrate. That covers the whole playerbase across all ranks. It would be silly to just pick a rank chunk like legend (which would be the absolute worst of them to take) and expect that that give a viable representation of the state of the meta. It would be very foolish to think that legend rank (or even to some extent ranks 5-1) gives any kind of real indication of the current meta. 

 Dude seriously you are bullshitting yourself with made up stats. Like you said your source is hsreplay and if you had yourself checked the statistics you would realize the following:

https://imgur.com/a/4MbW6dW

taken from: https://hsreplay.net/meta/

and read this too: https://www.vicioussyndicate.com/vs-data-reaper-report-128/

You are infact doing just the thing you are advocating against. You are picking a single deck and generalizing it to represent whole archetype when the deck can have 200 games played by couple of people climbing from rank 20 to 10. 

The fact is that rogue is the strongest deck CURRENTLY(may change). Its ok to defend rogue but dont give bullshit stats to other people trying to justify your opinions. 

I just want to comment on weapon removal, and specifically Ooze/similar effects.  

IMO Ooze's effect is too strong and prevents archetypes like Thief Rogue from being playable.  Hear me out.  

Lackey Rogue with Waggle Pick is strong for many reasons, some of those reasons being pure burst damage via Waggle Pick and Leeroy.  There's not much thought to it - you go face, gg.  

Because of how strong the deck is, everyone techs in weapon removal via Ooze/Harrison (and Weapons Project in Warrior).   That means you can't play Thief Rogue with Spectral Cutlass, a major point around which a lot of versions of the deck are built, and a primary way not dying to aggro/midrange.  Say what you will about "Cutlass is broken because I died once to an 8-attack lifesteal Cutlass" but a majority of the time, you're using that huge weapon for removal and survival.  Not to mention balancing weapon charges against 'other class' card generation.  

Oh but because Lackey Rogue is stupidly strong and everyone runs double Ooze, guess what - Cutlass is unplayable, which makes the deck unplayable.  

Cutlass is fine because of the skill and intricacy of plays.  

Make Ooze a glorified Bloodsail Corsair and make Waggle Pick start with 1 durability instead of 2.