I have the lists now, I started to look at them, but I've not been to sleep yet and been up for about 42 hours, so I will look at them tomorrow wil a clearer head.
In the meantime I was wondering what you guys are thinking. have you made any calculations, have you made any predictions from those calculations, would you be willing share info? ha ha.
Or are you just picking someone you know is good? I have done this in the past, but after last year when my friends predicted killingallday would win by his decks, I think there might be a bit more to this divination technique, so would like harness the power of you number-people and brainstorm to come up with some top picks for the community.
It would be amazing if we could predict the winner and everyone got the max amount of packs.
I will do my research either after this next coffee, or after my next sleep (I actually had a decent 2 hours sleep at 3:00pm today, just to shake the cobwebs off so I'm not running totally on empty... I can probably still play my aggro decks :D
Anyway guys, I'd love to be able to get decent data out to people so they can maximize on packs. there would be not greater thing right now than knowing we got as many Hearthpwn users 4 packs as possible.
Safe Picks (guaranteed a few packs, wouldn't be a shocking win)
Bunnyhoppor
Roger
Secondary Picks (guaranteed 2+ packs)
LFYueying,
JustSaiyan
Questionable (Could go big, could go small)
Bloodyface
SNJing
That being said a fan favorite is Ike, but getting matched up against Hunterace- potentially twice even in the first bracket- is a bad look for Ike. He is a lovable, but greedy aggro player and Hunterace is just as quick on the trigger of figuring out meta. Ike will also get smacked if he makes it late in the rounds so if RNG is there he can definitely get you 2 packs, but some of these anti-aggro line-ups are going to take some hard divine intervention for him to get the edge he needs in the fringe match-ups. For that reason statistically I can't add him to that list, but I sure would like to.
Overall, that gives you about 6 people to watch, and yes I can definitely be wrong. If it means anything some of the reddit pages are initially going big on Bunnyhoppor and Roger. I'm really glad I did bracket match-ups and came to the same conclusions as them without bias. As far as my other picks I really went off with the coming out of Groups 2-0 versus 2-1 tactic. This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages. So here are my predictions by match set up so far to help come to the conclusions I made:
For those who are interested, this is what came out of my spreadsheet. For each series, I had each of one player's deck fight each of their opponent's deck. The highest winrate deck from each side are then banned and the series are recalculated. Winrates are pulled from HSReplay. R1 is the likelyhood of winning the 2nd series; R2 and R3 are the 2nd and 3rd series respectively, weighted by whichever opponent they're more likely to find; the others are what they say on the tin
There's admittedly a lot of flaws here. It's early in the meta, so the stats might not be the most accurate. There's a lot of shamans that don't fit any of the documented archetypes well and I had to select the closest thing. I also do not have HSReplay premium, so the stats include winrates from rank 25
Obviously this also doesn't take into account tech cards and player skill. I have not voted for Roger yet despite the stats telling me he is the clear favorite because I've seen him throwing games left and right and don't trust him with my packs
This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages.
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
For those who are interested, this is what came out of my spreadsheet. For each series, I had each of one player's deck fight each of their opponent's deck. The highest winrate deck from each side are then banned and the series are recalculated. Winrates are pulled from HSReplay. R1 is the likelyhood of winning the 2nd series; R2 and R3 are the 2nd and 3rd series respectively, weighted by whichever opponent they're more likely to find; the others are what they say on the tin
There's admittedly a lot of flaws here. It's early in the meta, so the stats might not be the most accurate. There's a lot of shamans that don't fit any of the documented archetypes well and I had to select the closest thing. I also do not have HSReplay premium, so the stats include winrates from rank 25
Obviously this also doesn't take into account tech cards and player skill. I have not voted for Roger yet despite the stats telling me he is the clear favorite because I've seen him throwing games left and right and don't trust him with my packs
This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages.
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
yeah I got roger as well. it doesn't account for tech though right?
I'm probs gonna vote roger tbh as this is what everyone is getting back. I really don't know who to vote for and I usually just pick someone I want to win. this will be the first time I'm actually comparing grouping.
last time I picked someone on loose info, but I'd like to try and maximize this time if possible.
This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages.
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
Thank you for the answer on that because if I wanted to go a little deeper I could now. To answer your question: Bunnyhoppor is a very consistent player and (generally) goes pretty far in competitions- mostly even top 5 or better. In this specific series, I had him going 2-1 in his initial group because of how good his first match-up looks. I do believe SNJing is going to get him in the second match, but he is quite favorable against the decks of either losers bracket he could face. Furthermore, though he is likely going 2-1 into the next round, his decklist is uniquely targeting what a lot of potential 2-0 players (historically top or bringing good deck choices in comparision) are going in with. Funny enough, it also seems as though he is trying to build his decks around Roger. Due to all this I put him in my number 2 seed, behind Roger, solely because if he goes exactly 2-1 to start the series he could very well carry himself to top 4 because of the versatility his list offers against the other notable top players in each bracket. Either way he is a safe 2 pack pick, but I feel he will net at least 3- maybe 4.
For those who are interested, this is what came out of my spreadsheet. For each series, I had each of one player's deck fight each of their opponent's deck. The highest winrate deck from each side are then banned and the series are recalculated. Winrates are pulled from HSReplay. R1 is the likelyhood of winning the 2nd series; R2 and R3 are the 2nd and 3rd series respectively, weighted by whichever opponent they're more likely to find; the others are what they say on the tin
There's admittedly a lot of flaws here. It's early in the meta, so the stats might not be the most accurate. There's a lot of shamans that don't fit any of the documented archetypes well and I had to select the closest thing. I also do not have HSReplay premium, so the stats include winrates from rank 25
Obviously this also doesn't take into account tech cards and player skill. I have not voted for Roger yet despite the stats telling me he is the clear favorite because I've seen him throwing games left and right and don't trust him with my packs
This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages.
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
yeah I got roger as well. it doesn't account for tech though right?
I'm probs gonna vote roger tbh as this is what everyone is getting back. I really don't know who to vote for and I usually just pick someone I want to win. this will be the first time I'm actually comparing grouping.
last time I picked someone on loose info, but I'd like to try and maximize this time if possible.
I don't have the thread unfortunately so you have to take me at my word alone, but I did read somewhere on r/CompetitiveHS that some players that frequently hit top legend do deep analysis that takes most of the week to do, and Roger was the outcome of one user's data. That doesn't speak for the whole community, but I as well keep seeing that Roger is a safe pick on paper. Now obviously in real life crazy things happen. For that reason I'm almost tempted to go against the grain and choose LFYueying. He is surprisingly 3rd seed on a lot of different data tables and qualitative debate.
For those who are interested, this is what came out of my spreadsheet. For each series, I had each of one player's deck fight each of their opponent's deck. The highest winrate deck from each side are then banned and the series are recalculated. Winrates are pulled from HSReplay. R1 is the likelyhood of winning the 2nd series; R2 and R3 are the 2nd and 3rd series respectively, weighted by whichever opponent they're more likely to find; the others are what they say on the tin
There's admittedly a lot of flaws here. It's early in the meta, so the stats might not be the most accurate. There's a lot of shamans that don't fit any of the documented archetypes well and I had to select the closest thing. I also do not have HSReplay premium, so the stats include winrates from rank 25
Obviously this also doesn't take into account tech cards and player skill. I have not voted for Roger yet despite the stats telling me he is the clear favorite because I've seen him throwing games left and right and don't trust him with my packs
This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages.
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
yeah I got roger as well. it doesn't account for tech though right?
I'm probs gonna vote roger tbh as this is what everyone is getting back. I really don't know who to vote for and I usually just pick someone I want to win. this will be the first time I'm actually comparing grouping.
last time I picked someone on loose info, but I'd like to try and maximize this time if possible.
I don't have the thread unfortunately so you have to take me at my word alone, but I did read somewhere on r/CompetitiveHS that some players that frequently hit top legend do deep analysis that takes most of the week to do, and Roger was the outcome of one user's data. That doesn't speak for the whole community, but I as well keep seeing that Roger is a safe pick on paper. Now obviously in real life crazy things happen. For that reason I'm almost tempted to go against the grain and choose LFYueying. He is surprisingly 3rd seed on a lot of different data tables and qualitative debate.
I can't even find the thing to choose now. all I'm getting is last years summer and winter ones. I was thinking about picking justsaiyan in the first place actually.
I just picked roger. I know if I left it much longer I might miss out. (initially I'd have not picked him for his decks neither, so I am just going against the grain here myself. I know through analysis he seems the best, but he doesn't have control warrior and thats probably going to be the deck that wins a lot of games.
If you pick tyler, means we're duking it out in the first round :)
I am just unconvinced with those who chose Mage in their setup, considering the moderate amount of Control decks?
Am i underestimating Standard Mage?
mage is really strong, dude. that spell they got that lets them split stuff is purely busted. I never win to mages with this deck. (well rarely) absolutely ruins my control shaman every time.
I just went with roger because I'm not feeling very well at the minute and I can't be bothered to loose any more time over it. I know I would probably end up leaving it too late to vote.
I suffer from anxiety though mate, so I can't leave things for too long.
I just picked roger. I know if I left it much longer I might miss out. (initially I'd have not picked him for his decks neither, so I am just going against the grain here myself. I know through analysis he seems the best, but he doesn't have control warrior and thats probably going to be the deck that wins a lot of games.
If you pick tyler, means we're duking it out in the first round :)
Right, but you forget that there is a ban and he is running an anti-warrior lineup. This is guaranteeing Roger at least one free win against every Warrior all but 2 other opponents are running. This is a huge advantage, on top of that most of these decks will suffice for anti-aggro too. I feel his deck choices are solid. It's going to come down to if someone Aggro god draws into his face more often than not.
I am just unconvinced with those who chose Mage in their setup, considering the moderate amount of Control decks?
Am i underestimating Standard Mage?
Mage is not so bad. It has the innate chance to highroll that mountain giant and has a fair chance against midrange decks. The German players have apparently brought an anti-aggro build of mage with 2x MCT, 2x Rabble Bouncer and less top end overall. I'd be interested to see how this deck does
I just picked roger. I know if I left it much longer I might miss out. (initially I'd have not picked him for his decks neither, so I am just going against the grain here myself. I know through analysis he seems the best, but he doesn't have control warrior and thats probably going to be the deck that wins a lot of games.
If you pick tyler, means we're duking it out in the first round :)
Right, but you forget that there is a ban and he is running an anti-warrior lineup. This is guaranteeing Roger at least one free win against every Warrior all but 2 other opponents are running. This is a huge advantage, on top of that most of these decks will suffice for anti-aggro too. I feel his deck choices are solid. It's going to come down to if someone Aggro god draws into his face more often than not.
I took my first serious look at his lineup this morning and didn't like what I saw. He's taken archetypes that are innately polarized to counter control and beefed them up further with many super greedy cards on top. Mech hunter with Da undatakah, dire frenzy and carine; mage with hexlord malacraz and 2x power of creation and 2x big dragons; bomb warrior with elysiana and banker but only 1 brawl; mech pally with da undatakah, blessing of kings, immortal prelate and zero board clears. These are decks that will absolutely not suffice for anti aggro. Seems like he's all-in on hard countering control decks. I don't like such all-in strategies; all you need to lose the series is an opponent getting lucky once with their control deck. You could also run into people with no control decks, which exist in the tournament
That said, I hope he does well because I picked Bunnyhoppor and he's going to auto win if he meets Roger in the top 8 :)
OK guys, so who do you think is gonna bring home the bacon this time?
https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/8042/2019-hct-world-championship-deck-lists-revealed-warrior-and-rogue-decks-galore
I have the lists now, I started to look at them, but I've not been to sleep yet and been up for about 42 hours, so I will look at them tomorrow wil a clearer head.
In the meantime I was wondering what you guys are thinking. have you made any calculations, have you made any predictions from those calculations, would you be willing share info? ha ha.
Or are you just picking someone you know is good? I have done this in the past, but after last year when my friends predicted killingallday would win by his decks, I think there might be a bit more to this divination technique, so would like harness the power of you number-people and brainstorm to come up with some top picks for the community.
It would be amazing if we could predict the winner and everyone got the max amount of packs.
I will do my research either after this next coffee, or after my next sleep (I actually had a decent 2 hours sleep at 3:00pm today, just to shake the cobwebs off so I'm not running totally on empty... I can probably still play my aggro decks :D
Anyway guys, I'd love to be able to get decent data out to people so they can maximize on packs. there would be not greater thing right now than knowing we got as many Hearthpwn users 4 packs as possible.
Definitely the guy named just named 'Tyler'.
next level here ! https://soundcloud.com/becauseyeye
Based on a few hours analysis:
Safe Picks (guaranteed a few packs, wouldn't be a shocking win)
Secondary Picks (guaranteed 2+ packs)
Questionable (Could go big, could go small)
That being said a fan favorite is Ike, but getting matched up against Hunterace- potentially twice even in the first bracket- is a bad look for Ike. He is a lovable, but greedy aggro player and Hunterace is just as quick on the trigger of figuring out meta. Ike will also get smacked if he makes it late in the rounds so if RNG is there he can definitely get you 2 packs, but some of these anti-aggro line-ups are going to take some hard divine intervention for him to get the edge he needs in the fringe match-ups. For that reason statistically I can't add him to that list, but I sure would like to.
Overall, that gives you about 6 people to watch, and yes I can definitely be wrong. If it means anything some of the reddit pages are initially going big on Bunnyhoppor and Roger. I'm really glad I did bracket match-ups and came to the same conclusions as them without bias. As far as my other picks I really went off with the coming out of Groups 2-0 versus 2-1 tactic. This also can be skewed because I don't know what bracketing happens after the initial grouping stages. So here are my predictions by match set up so far to help come to the conclusions I made:
A- Bunnyhoppor beats bloodtrail, SNJing beats XiaoT, SNJing beats Bunnyhoppor. (SNJing moves on 2-0)
XioaT beats BloodTrail, Bunnyhoppor beats XioaT (Bunnyhoppor moves on 2-1)
B- LanguageHacker beats KillinAllDay, LFYueying beats Muzzy, LFYueying beats LanguageHacker (LFYueying moves on 2-0)
Muzzy beats KillinAllDay, LanguageHacker beats Muzzy (LanguageHacker moves on 2-1)
C- Hunterace beats Ike, JustSaiyan beats A83650, Justsaiyan beats Hunterace (JustSaiyan moves on 2-0)
Ike beats A83650, Hunterace beats Ike again (Hunterace moves on 2-1)
D- Roger beats Tyler, Bloodyface beats Viper, Roger beats Bloodyface (Roger moves on 2-0)
Tyler beats Viper, Bloodyface beats Tyler (Bloodyface moves on 2-1)
I AM VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT BLOODYFACE VERSUS VIPER. That has to be the most interesting match-up in the whole tournament off beginning bracket alone.
For those who are interested, this is what came out of my spreadsheet. For each series, I had each of one player's deck fight each of their opponent's deck. The highest winrate deck from each side are then banned and the series are recalculated. Winrates are pulled from HSReplay. R1 is the likelyhood of winning the 2nd series; R2 and R3 are the 2nd and 3rd series respectively, weighted by whichever opponent they're more likely to find; the others are what they say on the tin
There's admittedly a lot of flaws here. It's early in the meta, so the stats might not be the most accurate. There's a lot of shamans that don't fit any of the documented archetypes well and I had to select the closest thing. I also do not have HSReplay premium, so the stats include winrates from rank 25
Obviously this also doesn't take into account tech cards and player skill. I have not voted for Roger yet despite the stats telling me he is the clear favorite because I've seen him throwing games left and right and don't trust him with my packs
The 2-0s each match with a 2-1 player from another group. Which group exactly can probably be seen by looking at past HCT brackets but I'm too lazy to check for sure. I think it's not worth looking that far ahead because of all the variance
btw, can you please explain why everyone thinks Bunnyhoppor is a good pick? I know he's a great player and I'd like to vote for him but my stats are saying not to
Legend with : S65 Freeze Mage, S57 Maly Gonk Druid, S57 "Okay" Shaman, S53 Boom-zooka Hunter, S53 Maly Tog Druid, S52 Wild Tog Druid ft.Blingtron, S50 Quest Rogue, S49 Dead Man's Warrior, S41 Wild Clown Fiesta Druid, S41 Hadronox Jade Druid, S40 Wild OTK Dragon Druid, S35 SMOrc Shaman, S33 Jade Druid, S22 Control Priest, S19 Control Priest
yeah I got roger as well. it doesn't account for tech though right?
I'm probs gonna vote roger tbh as this is what everyone is getting back. I really don't know who to vote for and I usually just pick someone I want to win. this will be the first time I'm actually comparing grouping.
last time I picked someone on loose info, but I'd like to try and maximize this time if possible.
Thank you for the answer on that because if I wanted to go a little deeper I could now. To answer your question: Bunnyhoppor is a very consistent player and (generally) goes pretty far in competitions- mostly even top 5 or better. In this specific series, I had him going 2-1 in his initial group because of how good his first match-up looks. I do believe SNJing is going to get him in the second match, but he is quite favorable against the decks of either losers bracket he could face. Furthermore, though he is likely going 2-1 into the next round, his decklist is uniquely targeting what a lot of potential 2-0 players (historically top or bringing good deck choices in comparision) are going in with. Funny enough, it also seems as though he is trying to build his decks around Roger. Due to all this I put him in my number 2 seed, behind Roger, solely because if he goes exactly 2-1 to start the series he could very well carry himself to top 4 because of the versatility his list offers against the other notable top players in each bracket. Either way he is a safe 2 pack pick, but I feel he will net at least 3- maybe 4.
I don't have the thread unfortunately so you have to take me at my word alone, but I did read somewhere on r/CompetitiveHS that some players that frequently hit top legend do deep analysis that takes most of the week to do, and Roger was the outcome of one user's data. That doesn't speak for the whole community, but I as well keep seeing that Roger is a safe pick on paper. Now obviously in real life crazy things happen. For that reason I'm almost tempted to go against the grain and choose LFYueying. He is surprisingly 3rd seed on a lot of different data tables and qualitative debate.
I can't even find the thing to choose now. all I'm getting is last years summer and winter ones. I was thinking about picking justsaiyan in the first place actually.
I just picked roger. I know if I left it much longer I might miss out. (initially I'd have not picked him for his decks neither, so I am just going against the grain here myself. I know through analysis he seems the best, but he doesn't have control warrior and thats probably going to be the deck that wins a lot of games.
If you pick tyler, means we're duking it out in the first round :)
I am just unconvinced with those who chose Mage in their setup, considering the moderate amount of Control decks?
Am i underestimating Standard Mage?
mage is really strong, dude. that spell they got that lets them split stuff is purely busted. I never win to mages with this deck. (well rarely) absolutely ruins my control shaman every time.
I just went with roger because I'm not feeling very well at the minute and I can't be bothered to loose any more time over it. I know I would probably end up leaving it too late to vote.
I suffer from anxiety though mate, so I can't leave things for too long.
Right, but you forget that there is a ban and he is running an anti-warrior lineup. This is guaranteeing Roger at least one free win against every Warrior all but 2 other opponents are running. This is a huge advantage, on top of that most of these decks will suffice for anti-aggro too. I feel his deck choices are solid. It's going to come down to if someone Aggro god draws into his face more often than not.
Mage is not so bad. It has the innate chance to highroll that mountain giant and has a fair chance against midrange decks. The German players have apparently brought an anti-aggro build of mage with 2x MCT, 2x Rabble Bouncer and less top end overall. I'd be interested to see how this deck does
I took my first serious look at his lineup this morning and didn't like what I saw. He's taken archetypes that are innately polarized to counter control and beefed them up further with many super greedy cards on top. Mech hunter with Da undatakah, dire frenzy and carine; mage with hexlord malacraz and 2x power of creation and 2x big dragons; bomb warrior with elysiana and banker but only 1 brawl; mech pally with da undatakah, blessing of kings, immortal prelate and zero board clears. These are decks that will absolutely not suffice for anti aggro. Seems like he's all-in on hard countering control decks. I don't like such all-in strategies; all you need to lose the series is an opponent getting lucky once with their control deck. You could also run into people with no control decks, which exist in the tournament
That said, I hope he does well because I picked Bunnyhoppor and he's going to auto win if he meets Roger in the top 8 :)
Legend with : S65 Freeze Mage, S57 Maly Gonk Druid, S57 "Okay" Shaman, S53 Boom-zooka Hunter, S53 Maly Tog Druid, S52 Wild Tog Druid ft.Blingtron, S50 Quest Rogue, S49 Dead Man's Warrior, S41 Wild Clown Fiesta Druid, S41 Hadronox Jade Druid, S40 Wild OTK Dragon Druid, S35 SMOrc Shaman, S33 Jade Druid, S22 Control Priest, S19 Control Priest