I was wondering whether people think these types of cards (Webspinner, Piloted Shredder, Piloted Sky Golem, Unstable Portal, etc.) are weighted towards more common rarity cards or whether they are flat chances, equal for each card. In my experience with Webspinner, I have gotten The Beast and King Krush more often than I would have from, say, opening packs... therefore I am guessing it is a flat chance for each card in the possible range. However, I wonder if it would be better if it was rarity-weighted, like opening packs. When you see a Piloted Shredder die and a Doomsayer climbs out, blowing up the whole situation, you might agree with me. It seems like more common cards have less "extreme" effects sometimes.
Maybe I will tweet a Blizzard developer and ask him.
I tested this a while back. The results are lost in the blizz forums.
However, the result, after 100 runs of ACTUAL tests, was this: it's random. All minions have an equal chance of being picked. Always ALWAYS remember that any casual observation of a random event will be subject to bias. It's not a fault of a weak mind of an idiot. It's a normal feature of our minds and, actually, a survival tool. However, it means you CANNOT trust casual observation to test anything involving random events.
In short, RNG is RNG, and confirmation bias is confirmation bias.
Ok, my autoreply satisfied:
As far as what you are getting at, whether it should be weighted...nah. As it is, you only have a 3% chance (iirc) to get King Krush off of a webspinner. That's fine overall. Besides, one of the most dangerous cards is actually another webspinner since it basically means getting 3 beast cards for 1. We DON'T need that chance increased.
It would also, I think, increase the chance of getting highmane as rare cards are, technically, a 1 in 5 chance since you ALWAYS get at least one. That should be enough to confirm that it's best to just leave the card alone
I asked Ben Brode on twitter and he confirmed that it is equally random. Curiosity satisfied.
The game is going to be so incredibly chaotic with these cards that I fear for my ability to analyze the game state. If these cards are powerful enough to be generally rewarding despite their randomness I wonder how that will make me feel.
I was wondering whether people think these types of cards (Webspinner, Piloted Shredder, Piloted Sky Golem, Unstable Portal, etc.) are weighted towards more common rarity cards or whether they are flat chances, equal for each card. In my experience with Webspinner, I have gotten The Beast and King Krush more often than I would have from, say, opening packs... therefore I am guessing it is a flat chance for each card in the possible range. However, I wonder if it would be better if it was rarity-weighted, like opening packs. When you see a Piloted Shredder die and a Doomsayer climbs out, blowing up the whole situation, you might agree with me. It seems like more common cards have less "extreme" effects sometimes.
Maybe I will tweet a Blizzard developer and ask him.
I tested this a while back. The results are lost in the blizz forums.
However, the result, after 100 runs of ACTUAL tests, was this: it's random. All minions have an equal chance of being picked. Always ALWAYS remember that any casual observation of a random event will be subject to bias. It's not a fault of a weak mind of an idiot. It's a normal feature of our minds and, actually, a survival tool. However, it means you CANNOT trust casual observation to test anything involving random events.
In short, RNG is RNG, and confirmation bias is confirmation bias.
Ok, my autoreply satisfied:
As far as what you are getting at, whether it should be weighted...nah. As it is, you only have a 3% chance (iirc) to get King Krush off of a webspinner. That's fine overall. Besides, one of the most dangerous cards is actually another webspinner since it basically means getting 3 beast cards for 1. We DON'T need that chance increased.
It would also, I think, increase the chance of getting highmane as rare cards are, technically, a 1 in 5 chance since you ALWAYS get at least one. That should be enough to confirm that it's best to just leave the card alone
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
I asked Ben Brode on twitter and he confirmed that it is equally random. Curiosity satisfied.
The game is going to be so incredibly chaotic with these cards that I fear for my ability to analyze the game state. If these cards are powerful enough to be generally rewarding despite their randomness I wonder how that will make me feel.