As most will be aware, the nerfs to Cold Blood, Flametongue Totem, Equality, Hunter's Mark and Lesser Emerald Spellstone are being implemented today. What are your guys thoughts on how it will impact the format, and which decks do you think will take advantage of it the most and which will find the changes most challenging to overcome? My thoughts below.
Strongest Decks
Odd Paladin was not directly affected by the nerfs and already a strong class. Unlike many others, I don't feel like Hunter will see a significant drop in play so Odd Paladin continues to shine in this regard. It also had bad matchups against the other Paladin builds, all of which have received a nerf which could potentially reduce their play rate, as well as increasing Odd Paladin's win % in the matchups slightly. Additionally another poor matchup, the sparsely represented Even Shaman is likely to become even less popular (and weaker). I do expect to see Odd Rogue (a great matchup for Odd Paladin) to fall off the map completely and an increase in the number of Even Warlocks and Priests, which could cause issues but in general things look decent for Odd Paladin.
Even Warlock looks like it may be able to take advantage of the changes as well. Hunters Mark and Equality are big cards against this Warlock strategy and both were nerfed. While the nerfs aren't particularly extreme given the power level of "reduce health to 1" against Even Warlock's playstyle, it may be enough, along with slightly reduced Hunter numbers expected on ladder, to give Even Warlock a boost back towards tier 2. In addition to this, Even Warlocks main predator, Odd Rogue, has pretty much been gutted and should all but disappear from ranked play. I feel the performance of Even Warlock will hinge a little on the popularity of OTK Paladin decks, both versions of which should become favourable matchups after the equality nerf if the Warlock is running Nerubian Unraveler and Mojomaster Zihi, and an expected uptick in Odd Paladins is also good news for any Warlock decks packing defile. To Even Warlock's detriment however, I think the number of Priests on ladder will rise considerably (although with the aforementioned heavily teched build, Gallery Priest can be shut down very fast).
Control Priest only stands to gain from the changes. Midrange Hunter is probably the least affected of the nerfed decks, a bad matchup for the Priest, but that's about the only bit of bad news. Holy Wrath Paladin is nerfed, Odd Rogue is nerfed, Odd Warrior doesn't seem to gain anything significant from the changes and everything else is a good matchup already, including the other decks that seem to benefit from the changes. Unless something new (or old) comes out of the void to challenge Control Priest it should be pretty dominant. I think if anything, we are to look to oldschool Malygos Druid to be the deck to rise up and challenge Control Priest.
Gallery Priest looks in a really favourable position with a bunch of its counters receiving nerfs. Or finding their likely matchup spreads weakend. Looking strong for the same reasons as Control Priest, albeit not AS strong.
Hybrid Hunter what? Yes, its favoured against both common builds of Priest and only loses Hunter's Mark (possibly). Even Paladin is going in the bin and I'm expecting an increase in a bunch of its good matchups. To its detriment I think Odd Paladin will rise and give it some grief but I strongly suspect Priest will be the most represented class.
Malygos Druid maybe? This is something I'd like to see because I really appreciate this deck. Potentially challenges a priest-heavy meta and is good against Priest's aggressive counters. It has lost a lot of speed but maybe this new shift is enough to bring the meta down to its power level. Probably just a dream.
Weakest Decks
Odd Rogue loses Cold Blood and I don't think it can recover. Early pressure against slow decks gone, burst finisher significantly weakened. I just don't think this deck can compete at all anymore.
Even Shaman loses Flametongue Totem and as a deck that is completely reliant on board control, this is too devastating a loss to recover from.
Those are my thoughts and as an honourable mention I think an aggressive Mage could be very strong but I've seen and played so little of it I'm not really sure how to rate it right now.
Even shaman? Control? Deck is fully aggro what are you talking about? And renolock is most definitely up there in the best decks with big priest. Their bad matchups got weakened
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Skidaddle skidoodle your Milhouse manastorm is now a noodle
Full disclosure - Even Shaman (standard) was my favourite deck and I don't see it being competitive post-nerf, which pisses me off.
What I find frustrating about how I expect the post-nerf meta to size up is that there are really only a few options left unless you want to playcombo/OTK decks or control decks (I don't like these.)
Odd Paladin - still good
Midrange Hunter - best deck?
What else?
Can Zoolock return? Even Warlock maybe?
I don't see any truly viable Rogue options. Odd Rogue will be weaker, so why bother? Pirate Rogue? Never taken off.
Warrior - Odd?. Can't stand that deck. Rush warrior? Never got into it, is it really any good?
I could go on, but my point is just it seems all the good midrange/aggro-ish decks are vanishing. Two months of Mechathun bulls***? No thanks.
Myracle probably replaces Odd Rogue as the aggressive Rogue of choice. (I think it's better than the Aggro Kingsbane or Kele/Hook Tempo decks).
Shaman is so wrecked. On the bright side, I think people will start experimenting with the dragon/elemental shudderwock decks more though. Those decks are close to having something there. Maybe it never gets over the hump, but more iteration is good.
Personally, I never liked Even Paladin as a ladder deck after the Druid nerfs. I recognize that the data says it was good. But, anecdotally, it never felt good when I played it, and I almost never lost to it. I like it even less now.
Even before the nerfs, I wasn't sure why you'd play the secret versions of Hunter over the non-secret Master's Call decks. (J/K! You play them because they high roll and you weren't a good player.) I certainly think now, you play the Midrange Master's Call deck instead of the others.
I'm not sure the equality nerf matters too much to late game Paladins. I suppose there's argument that it makes Prismatic Lens a bit worse. But it's better for Shrivallah. Some of those decks already used Shrink Ray anyway. If equality is that much worse, I can see the switch being pretty clean.
The decline of Odd Rogue and Even Paladin is a good thing for Resurrect Priest, which in turn is a good thing for Aggro Odd Mage. Which, in turn is good for the non-Secret Master's Call Hunters. All of these decks, except for the rising Aggro Odd Mage, already had a huge meta presence.
tl;dr I don't think much changes in the long run. I think Priest will be the default favorite for a few weeks. But I think that Resurrect Priest is equal parts frustrating to play because of how much RNG is involved and vulnerable to aggressive decks. And I think there are sufficient aggressive decks remaining to take advantage of it.
Even shaman? Control? Deck is fully aggro what are you talking about?
Even Shaman? Aggro? Deck is fully midrange what are you talking about?
EDIT: I hope Odd Rogue will still be good. It works so well on the lower ranks for me so far: From rank 13 to 9 today with 11 to 1 wins = 92% winrate. ^.^
Blizzard should make a special stream lessons or youtube videos in which they explain the the only way hs should be played is with supa dupa 1000 IQ control/combo homebrewed decks and 30 minutes long match is a minimum time period that proves you're not braindead blah blah something etc.
Even shaman? Control? Deck is fully aggro what are you talking about?
Even Shaman? Aggro? Deck is fully midrange what are you talking about?
EDIT: I hope Odd Rogue will still be good. It works so well on the lower ranks for me so far: From rank 13 to 9 today with 11 to 1 wins = 92% winrate. ^.^
Maybe in Standard but I don't play that format, its stupid and just never will work, might as well delete it
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Skidaddle skidoodle your Milhouse manastorm is now a noodle
Even shaman? Control? Deck is fully aggro what are you talking about?
Even Shaman? Aggro? Deck is fully midrange what are you talking about?
EDIT: I hope Odd Rogue will still be good. It works so well on the lower ranks for me so far: From rank 13 to 9 today with 11 to 1 wins = 92% winrate. ^.^
Maybe in Standard but I don't play that format, its stupid and just never will work, might as well delete it
Even shaman isn't aggro. Not in wild. Not in standard. Pirate warrior is aggro. Mech hunter is aggro. Even shaman is not.
I personally can't wait for all the even shaman losers who get carried to high ranks by playing the easiest deck in the game to flock over to big priest, so that I can make them suffer with kingsbane rogue.
I find it pretty funny that odd Paladin had one it's most powerful cards nerfed (removed) and is still the highest win rate deck!
Priest benefits the most from the nerfs I'd say, all variants. I think people that liked otk decks will gravitate to Warlock and druid for the mechathun.
I'd also say warrior gained, odd warrior does well against priest by just armouring out of otk range and isn't affected as much by alextrasa. If I see a lot more priest I'll play more odd warrior.
You've got to take second-order effects into account. Odd paladin is mostly strong against hunters. If hunter numbers greatly decrease following the nerfs then odd paladin won't be that good.
The next meta breaker will be whatever beats priest and midrange hunter. Odd secret mage perhaps?
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As most will be aware, the nerfs to Cold Blood, Flametongue Totem, Equality, Hunter's Mark and Lesser Emerald Spellstone are being implemented today. What are your guys thoughts on how it will impact the format, and which decks do you think will take advantage of it the most and which will find the changes most challenging to overcome? My thoughts below.
Strongest Decks
Odd Paladin was not directly affected by the nerfs and already a strong class. Unlike many others, I don't feel like Hunter will see a significant drop in play so Odd Paladin continues to shine in this regard. It also had bad matchups against the other Paladin builds, all of which have received a nerf which could potentially reduce their play rate, as well as increasing Odd Paladin's win % in the matchups slightly. Additionally another poor matchup, the sparsely represented Even Shaman is likely to become even less popular (and weaker). I do expect to see Odd Rogue (a great matchup for Odd Paladin) to fall off the map completely and an increase in the number of Even Warlocks and Priests, which could cause issues but in general things look decent for Odd Paladin.
Even Warlock looks like it may be able to take advantage of the changes as well. Hunters Mark and Equality are big cards against this Warlock strategy and both were nerfed. While the nerfs aren't particularly extreme given the power level of "reduce health to 1" against Even Warlock's playstyle, it may be enough, along with slightly reduced Hunter numbers expected on ladder, to give Even Warlock a boost back towards tier 2. In addition to this, Even Warlocks main predator, Odd Rogue, has pretty much been gutted and should all but disappear from ranked play. I feel the performance of Even Warlock will hinge a little on the popularity of OTK Paladin decks, both versions of which should become favourable matchups after the equality nerf if the Warlock is running Nerubian Unraveler and Mojomaster Zihi, and an expected uptick in Odd Paladins is also good news for any Warlock decks packing defile. To Even Warlock's detriment however, I think the number of Priests on ladder will rise considerably (although with the aforementioned heavily teched build, Gallery Priest can be shut down very fast).
Control Priest only stands to gain from the changes. Midrange Hunter is probably the least affected of the nerfed decks, a bad matchup for the Priest, but that's about the only bit of bad news. Holy Wrath Paladin is nerfed, Odd Rogue is nerfed, Odd Warrior doesn't seem to gain anything significant from the changes and everything else is a good matchup already, including the other decks that seem to benefit from the changes. Unless something new (or old) comes out of the void to challenge Control Priest it should be pretty dominant. I think if anything, we are to look to oldschool Malygos Druid to be the deck to rise up and challenge Control Priest.
Gallery Priest looks in a really favourable position with a bunch of its counters receiving nerfs. Or finding their likely matchup spreads weakend. Looking strong for the same reasons as Control Priest, albeit not AS strong.
Hybrid Hunter what? Yes, its favoured against both common builds of Priest and only loses Hunter's Mark (possibly). Even Paladin is going in the bin and I'm expecting an increase in a bunch of its good matchups. To its detriment I think Odd Paladin will rise and give it some grief but I strongly suspect Priest will be the most represented class.
Malygos Druid maybe? This is something I'd like to see because I really appreciate this deck. Potentially challenges a priest-heavy meta and is good against Priest's aggressive counters. It has lost a lot of speed but maybe this new shift is enough to bring the meta down to its power level. Probably just a dream.
Weakest Decks
Odd Rogue loses Cold Blood and I don't think it can recover. Early pressure against slow decks gone, burst finisher significantly weakened. I just don't think this deck can compete at all anymore.
Even Shaman loses Flametongue Totem and as a deck that is completely reliant on board control, this is too devastating a loss to recover from.
Those are my thoughts and as an honourable mention I think an aggressive Mage could be very strong but I've seen and played so little of it I'm not really sure how to rate it right now.
Even shaman? Control? Deck is fully aggro what are you talking about? And renolock is most definitely up there in the best decks with big priest. Their bad matchups got weakened
Skidaddle skidoodle your Milhouse manastorm is now a noodle
Reliant on board control =/= a control deck. Even Shaman falls to pieces if it can't keep board control.
I don't know about standard but in wild that's not exactly how it works
Skidaddle skidoodle your Milhouse manastorm is now a noodle
You're missing one of strongest HS decks in your list - Tiger Paladin. He doesn't care about +1 Equality cost at all.
Yeah I fired up odd rogue yesterday as I want to get my golden rogue. What a mistake, even without the nerf I think I had 10 straight losses.
Look on the bright side. Post-nerf it can't be worse, right?
+2 *
I think Baku Rogue will still be good honestly, it just loses one of its tools, but it can close games in a lot of ways.
Nature is the Day.
Man is the Sun.
Woman is the Moon.
The Stone is the Sky.
The Art is the Way.
Full disclosure - Even Shaman (standard) was my favourite deck and I don't see it being competitive post-nerf, which pisses me off.
What I find frustrating about how I expect the post-nerf meta to size up is that there are really only a few options left unless you want to playcombo/OTK decks or control decks (I don't like these.)
Odd Paladin - still good
Midrange Hunter - best deck?
What else?
Can Zoolock return? Even Warlock maybe?
I don't see any truly viable Rogue options. Odd Rogue will be weaker, so why bother? Pirate Rogue? Never taken off.
Warrior - Odd?. Can't stand that deck. Rush warrior? Never got into it, is it really any good?
I could go on, but my point is just it seems all the good midrange/aggro-ish decks are vanishing. Two months of Mechathun bulls***? No thanks.
Then he will just use 5 mana spell instead, not a problem.
Myracle probably replaces Odd Rogue as the aggressive Rogue of choice. (I think it's better than the Aggro Kingsbane or Kele/Hook Tempo decks).
Shaman is so wrecked. On the bright side, I think people will start experimenting with the dragon/elemental shudderwock decks more though. Those decks are close to having something there. Maybe it never gets over the hump, but more iteration is good.
Personally, I never liked Even Paladin as a ladder deck after the Druid nerfs. I recognize that the data says it was good. But, anecdotally, it never felt good when I played it, and I almost never lost to it. I like it even less now.
Even before the nerfs, I wasn't sure why you'd play the secret versions of Hunter over the non-secret Master's Call decks. (J/K! You play them because they high roll and you weren't a good player.) I certainly think now, you play the Midrange Master's Call deck instead of the others.
I'm not sure the equality nerf matters too much to late game Paladins. I suppose there's argument that it makes Prismatic Lens a bit worse. But it's better for Shrivallah. Some of those decks already used Shrink Ray anyway. If equality is that much worse, I can see the switch being pretty clean.
The decline of Odd Rogue and Even Paladin is a good thing for Resurrect Priest, which in turn is a good thing for Aggro Odd Mage. Which, in turn is good for the non-Secret Master's Call Hunters. All of these decks, except for the rising Aggro Odd Mage, already had a huge meta presence.
tl;dr I don't think much changes in the long run. I think Priest will be the default favorite for a few weeks. But I think that Resurrect Priest is equal parts frustrating to play because of how much RNG is involved and vulnerable to aggressive decks. And I think there are sufficient aggressive decks remaining to take advantage of it.
Even Shaman? Aggro? Deck is fully midrange what are you talking about?
EDIT: I hope Odd Rogue will still be good. It works so well on the lower ranks for me so far: From rank 13 to 9 today with 11 to 1 wins = 92% winrate. ^.^
not gonna lie, it is going to be priest heavy meta after the nerf. and i am prepared with maly rogue for them
Baku/Genn Paladin and Hunter in standard. Genn Shaman followed by less than 1% difference in winrate by Baku/Genn Paladin in Wild.
Not sure if hyped yet.
Maybe in Standard but I don't play that format, its stupid and just never will work, might as well delete it
Skidaddle skidoodle your Milhouse manastorm is now a noodle
Even shaman isn't aggro. Not in wild. Not in standard. Pirate warrior is aggro. Mech hunter is aggro. Even shaman is not.
I personally can't wait for all the even shaman losers who get carried to high ranks by playing the easiest deck in the game to flock over to big priest, so that I can make them suffer with kingsbane rogue.
That new pirate deck works well also
I find it pretty funny that odd Paladin had one it's most powerful cards nerfed (removed) and is still the highest win rate deck!
Priest benefits the most from the nerfs I'd say, all variants. I think people that liked otk decks will gravitate to Warlock and druid for the mechathun.
I'd also say warrior gained, odd warrior does well against priest by just armouring out of otk range and isn't affected as much by alextrasa. If I see a lot more priest I'll play more odd warrior.
I still think spell hunter will be a great deck.
You've got to take second-order effects into account. Odd paladin is mostly strong against hunters. If hunter numbers greatly decrease following the nerfs then odd paladin won't be that good.
The next meta breaker will be whatever beats priest and midrange hunter. Odd secret mage perhaps?