I just opened my 11th Classic pack without an EPIC. I've opened hundreds of packs and this is the first time the "10 pack pity timer" hasn't triggered so to speak. I read about the epic pity timer everywhere, so assumed it was gospel.
Talking to Blizzard support today in live chat they couldn't find any official documentation pertaining to epic pity timers. The *only* documentation they apparently found was in relation to the legendary in the first 10 packs of a new expansion. So I did a tonne of searching and came up with a lot of anecdotal evidence and statistics suggesting such a pity timer exists, inc:
Now I'm just confused! There seems to be overwhelming "evidence" and assumptions across the board that the epic pity timer exists, but Blizzard say they can't find anything.
One thing I'm wondering is do gift packs not count toward pity timers? I collected 4 Samsung gift packs during the last 11 that could explain why I haven't unpacked an epic. I have one person in discord saying that gift packs *don't* count toward pity timers, and others saying they've never heard of that before.
You opened a Force of Nature on the 2nd of September.
OMG so I did! LUL can't even follow my own spreadsheet.
I've been meaning to put conditional formatting on those colour coded backgrounds for a while now. Thanks for picking that up Diamond....no one at Blizzard support saw it hahah
yeah, thought so it was a maximum of 10 packs before you get one
maybe, just maybe they should change the wording on that, though... pity timer lol
sounds to me like: "We're sorry you have to play this terrible game and not getting anything for your troubles. Here, just take this card and shut up."
yeah, thought so it was a maximum of 10 packs before you get one
maybe, just maybe they should change the wording on that, though... pity timer lol
sounds to me like: "We're sorry you have to play this terrible game and not getting anything for your troubles. Here, just take this card and shut up."
yeah, thought so it was a maximum of 10 packs before you get one
maybe, just maybe they should change the wording on that, though... pity timer lol
sounds to me like: "We're sorry you have to play this terrible game and not getting anything for your troubles. Here, just take this card and shut up."
:D
You know, it's not actually Blizzard or Team5 that names this "pity timer", but the community.
Through a LOT of data gathering on pack opening, Hearthstone players managed to deduce that this "pity timer" existed, and how it worked. And the "leaders" of this investigation named this the "pity timer".
You know, it's not actually Blizzard or Team5 that names this "pity timer", but the community.
Through a LOT of data gathering on pack opening, Hearthstone players managed to deduce that this "pity timer" existed, and how it worked. And the "leaders" of this investigation named this the "pity timer".
Didn't know this - thank you for educating me about it! :)
FWIW - there are at least two HS pack-opening apps which I'm aware of, each of which has tracked millions of opened packs. If anyone had evidence of a "no epics streak" longer than ten packs, it hasn't been posted . . . at any rate, pitytracker.com updates all their data after each expansion, and hasn't changed any of their pity timers since the app launched. So it seems likely that ten is the limit for epics - folks claiming otherwise are probably in the same boat as the OP, simply forgetting, miscounting, etc . . .
FWIW - there are at least two HS pack-opening apps which I'm aware of, each of which has tracked millions of opened packs. If anyone had evidence of a "no epics streak" longer than ten packs, it hasn't been posted . . . at any rate, pitytracker.com updates all their data after each expansion, and hasn't changed any of their pity timers since the app launched. So it seems likely that ten is the limit for epics - folks claiming otherwise are probably in the same boat as the OP, simply forgetting, miscounting, etc . . .
It's threads like this that help cement the theory of the timer. This is, to my memory, the first time someone actually tried to provide evidence of breaking the pity timer (very impressed, OP) in the 3 years since its been discovered and it can't hold up, beyond one incident involving a bug.
To note, Blizzard has neither confirmed 100% or denied the existence of a pity timer. They HAVE make official statements that suggest something like it exists. For example, they have said that the chance of getting a legendary increases as you open packs.
There was also the 'bug' where several people, according to blizzard, 'didn't obtain a legendary when they were supposed to' which was declared not long after people started noticing they WERE breaking the pity timer. They were compensated for it. The issue is that if the pity timer doesn't exist and everything is just a random chance, even with increasing odds, this would make no sense as going even 1000 packs without one would be VERY unlikely but not impossible. You aren't guaranteed anything with RNG. It's also funny because since they never made official the pity timer, when people noticed they were breaking 40 packs Blizzard could've just said "everything is fine, there is no pity timer." They didn't. They also could've just said "We found out that the chance of obtaining a legendary is lower than we intended." They didn't.
It's not conclusive evidence, but it's more wood on the pile. They haven't officially declared the pity timer to exist, but have almost made it a point to not deny or contradict it either.
Just wanted to put down Blizzard's statements about the matter.
I just opened my 11th Classic pack without an EPIC. I've opened hundreds of packs and this is the first time the "10 pack pity timer" hasn't triggered so to speak. I read about the epic pity timer everywhere, so assumed it was gospel.
https://imgur.com/a/PWmK5mH
Talking to Blizzard support today in live chat they couldn't find any official documentation pertaining to epic pity timers. The *only* documentation they apparently found was in relation to the legendary in the first 10 packs of a new expansion. So I did a tonne of searching and came up with a lot of anecdotal evidence and statistics suggesting such a pity timer exists, inc:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3zaeou/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_analysiskinda_proofed/
https://imgur.com/iG9z7fk
https://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics
Now I'm just confused! There seems to be overwhelming "evidence" and assumptions across the board that the epic pity timer exists, but Blizzard say they can't find anything.
One thing I'm wondering is do gift packs not count toward pity timers? I collected 4 Samsung gift packs during the last 11 that could explain why I haven't unpacked an epic. I have one person in discord saying that gift packs *don't* count toward pity timers, and others saying they've never heard of that before.
Just trying to understand!
Did you open packs from different sets? I’m pretty sure that the timers are separate for each expansion.
OMG so I did! LUL can't even follow my own spreadsheet.
I've been meaning to put conditional formatting on those colour coded backgrounds for a while now. Thanks for picking that up Diamond....no one at Blizzard support saw it hahah
yeah, thought so it was a maximum of 10 packs before you get one
maybe, just maybe they should change the wording on that, though... pity timer lol
sounds to me like: "We're sorry you have to play this terrible game and not getting anything for your troubles. Here, just take this card and shut up."
:D
Bingo
No, I'd say the wording is perfect :D
You really put a lot of effort in this ;)
Well I suck at the game itself, so I may as well get something out of it. Love my spreadsheets :D
You know, it's not actually Blizzard or Team5 that names this "pity timer", but the community.
Through a LOT of data gathering on pack opening, Hearthstone players managed to deduce that this "pity timer" existed, and how it worked.
And the "leaders" of this investigation named this the "pity timer".
Didn't know this - thank you for educating me about it! :)
FWIW - there are at least two HS pack-opening apps which I'm aware of, each of which has tracked millions of opened packs. If anyone had evidence of a "no epics streak" longer than ten packs, it hasn't been posted . . . at any rate, pitytracker.com updates all their data after each expansion, and hasn't changed any of their pity timers since the app launched. So it seems likely that ten is the limit for epics - folks claiming otherwise are probably in the same boat as the OP, simply forgetting, miscounting, etc . . .
It's threads like this that help cement the theory of the timer. This is, to my memory, the first time someone actually tried to provide evidence of breaking the pity timer (very impressed, OP) in the 3 years since its been discovered and it can't hold up, beyond one incident involving a bug.
To note, Blizzard has neither confirmed 100% or denied the existence of a pity timer. They HAVE make official statements that suggest something like it exists. For example, they have said that the chance of getting a legendary increases as you open packs.
There was also the 'bug' where several people, according to blizzard, 'didn't obtain a legendary when they were supposed to' which was declared not long after people started noticing they WERE breaking the pity timer. They were compensated for it. The issue is that if the pity timer doesn't exist and everything is just a random chance, even with increasing odds, this would make no sense as going even 1000 packs without one would be VERY unlikely but not impossible. You aren't guaranteed anything with RNG. It's also funny because since they never made official the pity timer, when people noticed they were breaking 40 packs Blizzard could've just said "everything is fine, there is no pity timer." They didn't. They also could've just said "We found out that the chance of obtaining a legendary is lower than we intended." They didn't.
It's not conclusive evidence, but it's more wood on the pile. They haven't officially declared the pity timer to exist, but have almost made it a point to not deny or contradict it either.
Just wanted to put down Blizzard's statements about the matter.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
Yeah I'm glad I made the stupid oversight and did some digging about! It's uncovered some really interesting information for sure :)
Yes, it's called statistics for thousands of players opening thousands of packs
Thanks for adding one more statistic to the thread elias....
I'm so tired of these dumb threads. Every time it's some guy convinced of conspiracy when he's made some silly mistake. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
Oh and btw, I track all my timers across two accounts. The pity timers are real, I assure you.