For the purposes of climbing, the game will last extremely long, and if I am not Odd Warrior myself, the match up is easily polarized at least 70/30 in his favor. Should I be eating the concede in this case? The ~30% chance that I get the star is not worth the 30 minutes I would spend getting it. Isn't it statistically better to concede that game and play two games in the time that one would have taken me?
Currently trying to climb with Spell Hunter and Deathrattle Rogue.
I’ve won games as odd rogue by getting a turn 2 coldblood and just snowballing from there. I’ve won as Malygos druid by going giggling inventor into branching paths attack. I’ve won as Face Hunter by Just rushing him down. There are unfavored matchups, but that doesn’t mean auto loss.
Just saw the decks you’re playing. Those aren’t nearly as unfavored as you think. Eggs are great against odd warrior, and DK Rexar can swing any game into a win.
Deathrattle Rogue should have about a 40% chance according to hsreplay, which means if you practice the matchup you can probably win 45% of the time. I wouldn't auto concede that matchup. If I personally have less than a 30% winrate in a control matchup I consider auto conceding to move up the ladder faster, but any higher than that and you are better off playing the game time wise.
Yesterday, I almost conceded vs odd warrior when I was playing an odd paladin, because I was short on time (I think I had like 15 more minutes), but, I toughed it out, and somehow won with a top deck Unidentified Maul with +1 attack on an almost full board, along with a Void Ripper to get past his taunt.
It can be demoralizing to lose the same match so often, but it can also be really fun and rewarding to actually pull off the win. If this is indeed just a salt post, then... obligatory "go to the salt thread" post here.
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Twitch name: Anatak15 NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
If you play deathrattle rogue and spell hunter this means that you should have all necessary cards to play deathrattle hunter (the mech version with mech dragons) that should have a 55/60% winrate against odd warrior. Why not try before uninstall like other said to you? xD
From a mathematical bend (not a rigorous proof), I'm going to say you should play the games and try to win.
It all depends on the particular numbers, but lets try this reasonable scenario.
Your win rate (WR) vs Odd Warrior (OW): 30%. Your WR vs not-OW: 55%. OW game time: 30 minutes. Not-OW game time: 10 minutes. OW is 6% of the meta (from 1-4 or legend VS data in report 103).
Now play 100 games, and see what the expected stars / minute are under two scenarios: "fight!" or "roll over" when you encounter OW.
So from the above you should try to win the games vs odd warrior. I ran a quick simulation similar to the above layout for 10,000 games in each scenario (with random game times as well), and the results are consistent with the above; fight stars / minute > roll over stars / minute.
Plus, the other stuff people have mentioned about improving in the match up are also very valid. So overall, don't just roll over; fight them warriors!
Actually, I won against quest rogue (as odd warrior) twice today. I mean, once it was because he milled his quest reward, but once I just fatigued him.
The real pain in the azz is control warrior. Odd is not that bad since he doesn't have Dead Man's Handand this whirlwind with echo, in the other hand, Odd warrior with Quest is bullshyt, I hate that. I recommend you to play deathrattle hunter instead rogue. Rexxar's DK is strong af against control decks. Propably worst nightmare of Odd warrior ^^
While playing the matchup more often would almost certainly increase his winrate against it, the question is strictly about the amount of time being invested. If he is only winning 3 out of 10 games and those games each last roughly 30 minutes regardless of the outcome, then I would say conceding is reasonable as long as you are not facing it too often. I haven't played spellhunter or deathrattle rogue myself so I'm not certain how long on average those game last.
Another factor that should be considered is fun/enjoyment. Facing shudderwock shaman every few matches last expansion became quite annoying. Knowing I had very little chance of beating it did nothing to improve my mood and I likely played poorly as a result. Would those many hours I spent losing been better spent if I conceded and tried again?
While playing the matchup more often would almost certainly increase his winrate against it, the question is strictly about the amount of time being invested. If he is only winning 3 out of 10 games and those games each last roughly 30 minutes regardless of the outcome, then I would say conceding is reasonable as long as you are not facing it too often. I haven't played spellhunter or deathrattle rogue myself so I'm not certain how long on average those game last.
Another factor that should be considered is fun/enjoyment. Facing shudderwock shaman every few matches last expansion became quite annoying. Knowing I had very little chance of beating it did nothing to improve my mood and I likely played poorly as a result. Would those many hours I spent losing been better spent if I conceded and tried again?
I basically address this above, in a poorly organized post.
[Stars gained / minute for always playing the match] > [Stars gained / minute for always conceding]
Deathrattle Rogue is not so bad. They can give an odd warrior a hard time, the deck can generate serious pressure. Spell hunter has been lame against my odd warrior, but hey, with rexxar and maybe if the wolves stick for a round or so, who knows?
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For the purposes of climbing, the game will last extremely long, and if I am not Odd Warrior myself, the match up is easily polarized at least 70/30 in his favor. Should I be eating the concede in this case? The ~30% chance that I get the star is not worth the 30 minutes I would spend getting it. Isn't it statistically better to concede that game and play two games in the time that one would have taken me?
Currently trying to climb with Spell Hunter and Deathrattle Rogue.
ye just uninstall
Just one question: how do you expect to increase the favourability of that matchup if you don't practice it?
In the words of JFK: "and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard"
I wasn't planning on going for a run today. But those cops came out of nowhere.
I’ve won games as odd rogue by getting a turn 2 coldblood and just snowballing from there. I’ve won as Malygos druid by going giggling inventor into branching paths attack. I’ve won as Face Hunter by Just rushing him down. There are unfavored matchups, but that doesn’t mean auto loss.
Just saw the decks you’re playing. Those aren’t nearly as unfavored as you think. Eggs are great against odd warrior, and DK Rexar can swing any game into a win.
yes please, and i encourage everyone to do the same so i can get to legend even more faster (already there)
LOL
to me this just seems kinda like a salty rant about odd warrior. lol, maybe this just belongs in salt thread.
Rumors are carried by haters, spread by fools, and accepted by idiots.
Deathrattle Rogue should have about a 40% chance according to hsreplay, which means if you practice the matchup you can probably win 45% of the time. I wouldn't auto concede that matchup. If I personally have less than a 30% winrate in a control matchup I consider auto conceding to move up the ladder faster, but any higher than that and you are better off playing the game time wise.
Yesterday, I almost conceded vs odd warrior when I was playing an odd paladin, because I was short on time (I think I had like 15 more minutes), but, I toughed it out, and somehow won with a top deck Unidentified Maul with +1 attack on an almost full board, along with a Void Ripper to get past his taunt.
It can be demoralizing to lose the same match so often, but it can also be really fun and rewarding to actually pull off the win. If this is indeed just a salt post, then... obligatory "go to the salt thread" post here.
Twitch name: Anatak15
NA Legend Season 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 74
If you play deathrattle rogue and spell hunter this means that you should have all necessary cards to play deathrattle hunter (the mech version with mech dragons) that should have a 55/60% winrate against odd warrior. Why not try before uninstall like other said to you? xD
From a mathematical bend (not a rigorous proof), I'm going to say you should play the games and try to win.
It all depends on the particular numbers, but lets try this reasonable scenario.
Your win rate (WR) vs Odd Warrior (OW): 30%. Your WR vs not-OW: 55%. OW game time: 30 minutes. Not-OW game time: 10 minutes. OW is 6% of the meta (from 1-4 or legend VS data in report 103).
Now play 100 games, and see what the expected stars / minute are under two scenarios: "fight!" or "roll over" when you encounter OW.
"Fight!": Expected stars = 6(-0.4) + 94(0.1) = 7. Expected time = 6(30) + 94(10) = 1120 minutes. Expected stars / minute = 0.00625.
"Roll over": Expected stars = 6(-1) + 94(0.1) = 3.4. Expected time = 6(0) + 94(10) = 940 minutes. Expected stars / minutes = 0.00362.
So from the above you should try to win the games vs odd warrior. I ran a quick simulation similar to the above layout for 10,000 games in each scenario (with random game times as well), and the results are consistent with the above; fight stars / minute > roll over stars / minute.
Plus, the other stuff people have mentioned about improving in the match up are also very valid. So overall, don't just roll over; fight them warriors!
In short, no, for 3 reasons:
1) You will never learn to beat the match-up if you never practice it.
2) You miss 100% of the shots that you don't take.
3) Hearthstone does have hard RNG swings at times. It's amazing when they can deliver you a win where you didn't expect one.
A never-Legend Dad who keeps making rank 2 or 1, but then sliding.
Rumbling around Gurubashi Arena. Shirvallah is the best loa. Go Tigers!
Actually, I won against quest rogue (as odd warrior) twice today. I mean, once it was because he milled his quest reward, but once I just fatigued him.
Play a Mechathun-Deck .
The real pain in the azz is control warrior. Odd is not that bad since he doesn't have Dead Man's Handand this whirlwind with echo, in the other hand, Odd warrior with Quest is bullshyt, I hate that. I recommend you to play deathrattle hunter instead rogue. Rexxar's DK is strong af against control decks. Propably worst nightmare of Odd warrior ^^
While playing the matchup more often would almost certainly increase his winrate against it, the question is strictly about the amount of time being invested. If he is only winning 3 out of 10 games and those games each last roughly 30 minutes regardless of the outcome, then I would say conceding is reasonable as long as you are not facing it too often. I haven't played spellhunter or deathrattle rogue myself so I'm not certain how long on average those game last.
Another factor that should be considered is fun/enjoyment. Facing shudderwock shaman every few matches last expansion became quite annoying. Knowing I had very little chance of beating it did nothing to improve my mood and I likely played poorly as a result. Would those many hours I spent losing been better spent if I conceded and tried again?
I basically address this above, in a poorly organized post.
[Stars gained / minute for always playing the match] > [Stars gained / minute for always conceding]
I was climbing faster when conceding, but now that the deck is the flavor of the month and is every second match up, its more fun just not to play.
Oh well.
Lol Odd warrior insta loses to Rexxar 90% of the times due to the constant build up of big beasts..He can't keep up the pace..
If you are an aggro deck though,yeah just concede.
Just Another Legend Player#Kappa
Deathrattle Rogue is not so bad. They can give an odd warrior a hard time, the deck can generate serious pressure. Spell hunter has been lame against my odd warrior, but hey, with rexxar and maybe if the wolves stick for a round or so, who knows?