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In my opinion, there are two ways ignorant looking at it: valuing cards at disenchant value and valuing at craft value. If you value at craft value, if the average is 100 dust per pack then there should be an epic in every 4 packs. The average was said to be five, but my calculations do no account for the average of 20 packs containing average dollar one legendary. In conclusion, the valuation of 100 dust per pack with the disenchant cost is most likely the right argument, based on my reasoning at least.
of course. I'm just saying I heard 40. (it's obviously minimum, not average)
why you dwelling on it, it doesn't matter?
I made a mistake.... move on dude. ha ha :D
*two ways of looking at it. Autocorrect what the hell? How do you get from of to ignorant???!!!😂
That's how people perceive things. They don't go by how many people die each second worldwide to calculate the likelihood of them dying within the forseeable future, they just hope they won't die anytime soon. They also don't keep statistics for their lifetime performance and achievements, they have their minds in the present (or most people at least).
Personal, immediate experience is in most cases more significant to indiviuals than statistics. And really, personal expeience indeed matters more than statistics, because no statistic changes my personal situation.
And as for your bet: Depending on how much or how little you play per day, per month, per week and per year, my guess is that most people open less than 250 packs per year. If you make about 2000 gold per month (already generous assumption), you make 24000 gold per year, which is 240 packs.
If you played since launch date, than yes, you will probably have opened something over 1000 packs by now. Putting that in perspective: When a new expansion launches, you compare the actual "average" outcome of some guy opening 50 or so packs with what a player might have accumulated over 4 years. But in contrast to what you keep reading on boards like Hearthpwn, not all players have been around since beta, average 7+ wins in arena and get to rank 5 or legend every month. That's a very small minority.
But wait, that's just the dirty "F2P" perspective, what if you put some big money on the table?!? Well, if you can spend 50$ or 80$ or 200$ or 500$ per expansion, you are, again, much less likely to even give a damn about dust per pack. You might want to craft some golden legendaries or stuff like that, but you know they are vanity items, and you are beyond the point where you really have to worry what decks you can play.
So really, by the end of it, that "100 dust on average" is a number for number crunchers, and irrelevant to most players.
In 2016, I had Dr. Hippi in the "choose your Champion" for the HCT, which got me like 6 or 7 packs or something. Nearly all 4-common, 1-rare, with one having a second rare in it. No golden cards. So I'm pretty sure the average dust per pack is 40.
That's how statistic works, right? 6 packs is a valid sample size. :P Kappa
But wouldn't you say things still have value even when you don't sell them?
For some reason I laughed so much at this.
How can you possibly have a rate close to 40 dust per pack with infinite pack when the average of epics are 1 in 5 and legendaries 1 in 20 ?
And I'm not even including golden cards
You don't need to open many packs to get close to the average, if we exclude golden legendaries from the average (reducing the average by 8 dust to ~94 dust) then we can draw a conclusion even on a batch of only 20 packs.
I made rough calculations, but those numbers should be close to reality:
With high probability you will deviate by at most 40% from the mean when opening 20 packs, giving you an average dust range of 56.4 ~ 131.6.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 27% from the mean when opening 40 packs, giving you an average dust range of 68.6 ~ 119.4.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 19% from the mean when opening 80 packs, giving you an average dust range of 76.1 ~ 111.8.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 15% from the mean when opening 130 packs, giving you an average dust range of 80 ~ 108.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 11% from the mean when opening 250 packs, giving you an average dust range of 83 ~ 104.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 5% from the mean when opening 1000 packs, giving you an average dust range of 89.3 ~ 98.7.
With high probability you will deviate by at most 5% from the mean when opening 1000 packs (without excluding golden legenderies), giving you an average dust range of 96.9 ~ 107.1.
Having bigger packs batch makes you more likely to be close to the average, but it doesn't mean that smaller batches are guarantee that you're not close to it (it's just more 'noisy', and heavily depended on your legendary opening luck).
** 'With high probability' = ~99.7% of the times. **
Mathematically speaking, I know that each pack is worth 100 dust. But you asked about the subjective value, which differs from the true average, here's why: Dust is the resource I put towards crafting new epics and legendaries. Opening a legendary, since I dont have all legs yet, will always be anew card and therefore count not towards the dust I can spend on crafting new cards. The same can be said for epics, but there I have rougly half of all epics.
To answer the question of how much dust I feel like getting from an average pack, let's assume I open 20 average packs, I'd get 2000 dust -400 from the leg I didnt have, -200 from new epics. Meaning from 20 packs I get roughly 1400 dust, which equals 70 dust per pack.
So to me, the average pack feels like having value of 70 dust.
Yeah, "how dust is it worth?" is not really a subjective question in a vacuum. That said, there was one great answer here: it depends on ones goal.
If you want to build a particular deck, certain cards are worth more to you; maybe The Soularium is worth 1600 because that's what you'll spend crafting it if you don't find it in a pack, while Harbinger Celestia is worth 400 because you'll almost certainly dust her. This means that you're judging some cards by replacement cost and others by DE value. Figuring out how many of each there are in a set and what your plan for your collection is would be the key to a "real" answer.
I, for one, don't care enough to spend the effort. I have my strategy based on the time I have to play and what I consocon fun. Your mileage may vary.
Based on a excel sheet I keep for packs opening for a quite long time (cca 1200 packs recorded here) the average dust value of pack is 102.
Of course, I disenchant only duplicates and if I have golden cards I keep them and disenchant the regular ones so in reality I get only much less dust for crafting.
--Alfi--
It's globally around 100. It's skewed because the median is much lower. For example, you could open 25 straight single-rare, 40 dust packs (1000 total dust), then 1 pack with a golden legendary (1620 dust) and your average for those 26 packs would be 2620/26≈101. So that last single pack raise the average from 40 to over 100.
This has always been my biggest issue with HS packs---the variance is WAY to high. You need to open a ton of packs to hit that average. Some people will get lucky, but others (myself included) will open a many packs and be stuck sub-80 dust per pack.
Compare to MTG Arena packs, that always include (the MTG equivalent of) 5 common, 2 rare and 1 epic or legendary (legendary about 1/8 of the time, epic the other 7/8). Much harder to have a feels-bad-man pack opening session
Thanks for making those calculations.
True enough, you can also have a much higher dust/pack with smaller numbers. When you get very lucky, your packs can average much more than 100. But then again, if your luck is way above normal, let's say one legendary in 12 packs, you also probably need a lot less packs in total, which effectively means, that dust becomes less relevant again. Though it should also me mentioned, that good luck across 10 packs is less meaningful than good luck across 100 packs. After all, 10 packs can only contain 50 cards.
The 100/pack is the number people go with, because large scale testing says so. What really matters to players is to get the cards they want. When you can open a lot of packs in one set, let's say 150+, you are more likely to have opened the cards you want, thus you need less dust to fill the holes. If you open relatively few packs, let's say 50 or less, you are more likely to miss cards you want, thus you need more dust to fill the holes. But only on that end would it matter how much dust per pack you get, and when you open not that many packs, chances are your packs can be worth much less than 100.
That's why I think, throwing around that magic number of 100/pack is kind of pointless. Either you open many packs to likely get close to that number, but then it will already matter less to you. Or you open less packs, thus you are more likely to be in the range where it is heavily influenced by luck how much dust your packs contain, and the less packs you open, the more it would matter to you how much you get. And when you have bad luck, the 100/pack figure is meaningless.
The statement that one pack contains 100 dust on average ignores the variance that comes with smaller sample sizes, which will be of relevance to most players caring about how much dust a pack contains. It's not like you will always have less dust when you open less packs, but to get good numbers in few packs, your results already need to be "above average", meaning an unusually high number of epics and legendaries.