So when I first read about the new pre-order packs that Blizzard is releasing for the next Hearthstone expansion, I was a little confused as to why they would go back on giving away 20 bonus packs as a pre-order reward when it was so well received last expansion. However, I pretty quickly realized that to me, personally, I would MUCH rather have a guaranteed golden legendary card with my pre-order packs than 20 extra packs.
That being said, I have most of my Hearthstone collection completed at this point and will probably have most of the new cards pretty soon after the expansion is released. From a collector/completionist point of view, the free golden legendary is obviously of WAY higher value considering how relatively low your chances of pulling a golden legendary from a regular ol' pack are.
But since the legendary is random and there's a fairly high chance the golden legendary you end up with will be pretty god damn useless, I'm wondering if a new player would find the 20 free packs in the pre-order way more valuable.
Vote and discuss! I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions.
I'm not certain myself, but it seems they are not mutually exclusive pre-orders. As in, the more expensive Mega-bundle just expands on the regular pre-order. Both have the guaranteed golden legendary, cardback etc. but you also get the new jaraxxus and packs from the mega. If people dont care about the playable hero or extra packs they'll go for the cheaper one I think?
I don't really care about golden legendaries, so gimme packs. 20 packs has a non zero chance to get more than one legendary. A golden legendary has a zero chance to get more than one legendary.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Life before death. Strength before weakness. Journey before destination.
Golden legendary = free legendary of my choice. With 20 packs I'd probably have to dust a bunch of epics and stuff to get to a legendary unless I got lucky and got one that I happened to want. Give me the golden legendary any time, unless I had all the legendaries I wanted and was dying for epics. Even still, I think I might still go with the legendary because that's 4 epics of my choice, vs only 2 guaranteed epics on the 20 packs (if I remember correctly about the epic pity timer being 10 packs).
Value wise they're about equal, but i'd prefer the packs. Though with as unlucky as I tend to be with xpac legendary pull rates (and especially golden leg pulls), the golden leggy may actually be better hmmm
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear turns into a cat and eats you." - Anonymous Druid
I don't really care about golden legendaries, so gimme packs. 20 packs has a non zero chance to get more than one legendary. A golden legendary has a zero chance to get more than one legendary.
20 packs, on average, gives you 1 legendary. Meaning there's a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries. And if you get one, it might not be the one you want, thus 400 dust.
OR you can get a golden legendary, aka "keep as is or turn in for a free normal legendary of your choice."
#()$#9 I'd take "1 legendary of my choice" over 2 random, probably bad, legendaries. And we're talking choosing between a guaranteed legenday you want over a good chance at getting pure crap.
I don't really care about golden legendaries, so gimme packs. 20 packs has a non zero chance to get more than one legendary. A golden legendary has a zero chance to get more than one legendary.
20 packs, on average, gives you 1 legendary. Meaning there's a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries. And if you get one, it might not be the one you want, thus 400 dust.
OR you can get a golden legendary, aka "keep as is or turn in for a free normal legendary of your choice."
#()$#9 I'd take "1 legendary of my choice" over 2 random, probably bad, legendaries. And we're talking choosing between a guaranteed legenday you want over a good chance at getting pure crap.
The first 10 packs = guaranteed legendary. The next 10 packs = non zero chance of legendary. The sum total = non zero chance for more than 1 legendary.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Life before death. Strength before weakness. Journey before destination.
I don't really care about golden legendaries, so gimme packs. 20 packs has a non zero chance to get more than one legendary. A golden legendary has a zero chance to get more than one legendary.
20 packs, on average, gives you 1 legendary. Meaning there's a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries.
That's not what that means, at all. Every pack has a roughly 5% chance of containing a legendary, or a 95% chance of NOT containing one. Which means you have about a 35% chance of not getting a legendary in 20 packs. And even if you fall in that unlucky percentage (as I tend to do...) you're also 20 packs closer to the pity timer, increasing the chance of opening a legendary in each subsequent pack.
The rest of your analysis is not wrong, but as I said above, the 2 options are relatively equivalent valuewise. One may be better for a specific player and the other for another, but in a vacuum there's not a noticeable advantage for one over the other
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear turns into a cat and eats you." - Anonymous Druid
The first 10 packs = guaranteed legendary. The next 10 packs = non zero chance of legendary. The sum total = non zero chance for more than 1 legendary.
We're talking about bundles, not raw chances. You're already buying 50 packs. so the 'first 10' is already in there. So the question is if it's better to get 50 packs + a golden legendary vs 70 packs.
With 50 packs, you are guaranteed 2 legendaries: 1 from the 'first ten' and one from the pity timer afterwards. By the time you get to the extra 20 from the 70 pack, you're already burned that guarantee and are back to normal chances. If you picked up the last legendary at the tail end of the 50-pack then you're at a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries.
You have a decent chance of a normal legendary from the extra 20 packs as well, but you're talking Lotto chances of getting 2 during that time. And that's random legendary, so it could be horrible.
With 50 packs, you get 2 guaranteed normal legendaries (with the non-zero chance of getting more, yes yes) and a guaranteed golden, which can be dusted to be any legendary you want, even if it's in another set.
On average, if you dust every card in a pack you'll net about 100 dust (that accounts for the occasional epic/legendary). So 20 extra packs will be on average 2000 dust.
...compared to 1600 dust from the golden.
..yes I calculate these things in real time. So this is where I go. "Ok perhaps you're right on this one."
You can argue that "1600 guaranteed" is better than "2000 on average" since "Average" can mean you get less especially with such a low sample, but overall, it's better to play the averages as over the long term (over many expansions) you'll get that average.
So yeah, started this post out arguing against you. Ending this saying "both are ok but you're right, the 20 packs is a better deal"
You just won an debate on the internet. Have a cookie.
Well, if you see it that way, then the Mega bundle is a pretty Bad Deal, but to be honest its not THAT Bad. The Jaraxxus Hero Skin cost 10 bucks, so its kinda make up for the Price. I would say 70€ would be a Good Deal.
Honestly I just view it as just an extension of the 'preorder' offer.
If you were the type that would buy the preorder then buy more packs (I know there's quite a few as I keep hearing people buying 150-200 paacks+) then this is a nobrainer as it's effectively double buying the pre-order.
If you were the type to buy the 50 pack bundle and that's it, then yeah, unless you just want Jaraxxus then the $80 offer isn't that great.
Thus "buy both or just buy the $50, unless your enemies MUST FACE JARAXXUS."
first if you buy the two bundles do you get 2 random legendaries?
and second can said legendaries be desinchanted? refering to marin
random ones can be disenchanted. It's when they give SPECifiC ones that they tend to be non-dust-able since they aren't collectable (if you found a way to get rid of Marin you'd never be able to get him back).
By how it reads two bundles = 2 golden legendaries
I would greatly prefer the 20 packs. Yes, if you dust them all, you have around ~2k dust on average, but now you might need to craft cards afterwards you would otherwise open (especially epics, they always seem to drain my dust the most).
Unless I opened hundreds of packs of an expansion (which I never do), I would prefer packs before golden legendaries.
Tracking my packs for the last five expansions indicates an average value of 90 to 110 dust per pack. 20 packs >1800 dust, while a golden legendary is worth 1600 dust. So based on value alone, 20 packs is the better deal. Additionally, if we're talking about a new expansion and a lot of cards you don't have but need to craft, the deal is very much in favour of the 20 packs.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Novice engineer & Hearthstone dilettante
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
So when I first read about the new pre-order packs that Blizzard is releasing for the next Hearthstone expansion, I was a little confused as to why they would go back on giving away 20 bonus packs as a pre-order reward when it was so well received last expansion. However, I pretty quickly realized that to me, personally, I would MUCH rather have a guaranteed golden legendary card with my pre-order packs than 20 extra packs.
That being said, I have most of my Hearthstone collection completed at this point and will probably have most of the new cards pretty soon after the expansion is released. From a collector/completionist point of view, the free golden legendary is obviously of WAY higher value considering how relatively low your chances of pulling a golden legendary from a regular ol' pack are.
But since the legendary is random and there's a fairly high chance the golden legendary you end up with will be pretty god damn useless, I'm wondering if a new player would find the 20 free packs in the pre-order way more valuable.
Vote and discuss! I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions.
I'm not certain myself, but it seems they are not mutually exclusive pre-orders. As in, the more expensive Mega-bundle just expands on the regular pre-order. Both have the guaranteed golden legendary, cardback etc. but you also get the new jaraxxus and packs from the mega. If people dont care about the playable hero or extra packs they'll go for the cheaper one I think?
I don't really care about golden legendaries, so gimme packs. 20 packs has a non zero chance to get more than one legendary. A golden legendary has a zero chance to get more than one legendary.
Kaladin's RoS Set Review
Join me at Out of Cards!
25% off
Golden legendary = free legendary of my choice. With 20 packs I'd probably have to dust a bunch of epics and stuff to get to a legendary unless I got lucky and got one that I happened to want. Give me the golden legendary any time, unless I had all the legendaries I wanted and was dying for epics. Even still, I think I might still go with the legendary because that's 4 epics of my choice, vs only 2 guaranteed epics on the 20 packs (if I remember correctly about the epic pity timer being 10 packs).
Value wise they're about equal, but i'd prefer the packs. Though with as unlucky as I tend to be with xpac legendary pull rates (and especially golden leg pulls), the golden leggy may actually be better hmmm
"Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear turns into a cat and eats you." - Anonymous Druid
20 packs, on average, gives you 1 legendary. Meaning there's a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries. And if you get one, it might not be the one you want, thus 400 dust.
OR you can get a golden legendary, aka "keep as is or turn in for a free normal legendary of your choice."
#()$#9 I'd take "1 legendary of my choice" over 2 random, probably bad, legendaries. And we're talking choosing between a guaranteed legenday you want over a good chance at getting pure crap.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
The first 10 packs = guaranteed legendary. The next 10 packs = non zero chance of legendary. The sum total = non zero chance for more than 1 legendary.
Kaladin's RoS Set Review
Join me at Out of Cards!
None.
ehm.... It's Actually 30 Extra Packs in the Megabundle, btw.
Sorry, to clarify, Witchwood only had the standard pre-order for $50.
PREVIOUS to Witchwood, you would receive 50 packs for your $50 preorder.
For Witchwood, you instead got [b]70[/b] packs for your $50 preorder.
For the next expansion, we're getting 50 packs and 1 golden legendary for the $50 preorder.
The mega-bundle or whatever for the next expansion comes with 80 packs and 1 golden legendary for $80.
Either bundle is still $1 a pack plus a random golden legendary.
The question is whether, on top of you $1 a pack pre-order, you'd rather receive a random golden legendary OR 20 extra packs.
That's not what that means, at all. Every pack has a roughly 5% chance of containing a legendary, or a 95% chance of NOT containing one. Which means you have about a 35% chance of not getting a legendary in 20 packs. And even if you fall in that unlucky percentage (as I tend to do...) you're also 20 packs closer to the pity timer, increasing the chance of opening a legendary in each subsequent pack.
The rest of your analysis is not wrong, but as I said above, the 2 options are relatively equivalent valuewise. One may be better for a specific player and the other for another, but in a vacuum there's not a noticeable advantage for one over the other
"Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear turns into a cat and eats you." - Anonymous Druid
We're talking about bundles, not raw chances. You're already buying 50 packs. so the 'first 10' is already in there. So the question is if it's better to get 50 packs + a golden legendary vs 70 packs.
With 50 packs, you are guaranteed 2 legendaries: 1 from the 'first ten' and one from the pity timer afterwards. By the time you get to the extra 20 from the 70 pack, you're already burned that guarantee and are back to normal chances. If you picked up the last legendary at the tail end of the 50-pack then you're at a 50% chance of getting 0 legendaries.
You have a decent chance of a normal legendary from the extra 20 packs as well, but you're talking Lotto chances of getting 2 during that time. And that's random legendary, so it could be horrible.
With 50 packs, you get 2 guaranteed normal legendaries (with the non-zero chance of getting more, yes yes) and a guaranteed golden, which can be dusted to be any legendary you want, even if it's in another set.
On average, if you dust every card in a pack you'll net about 100 dust (that accounts for the occasional epic/legendary). So 20 extra packs will be on average 2000 dust.
...compared to 1600 dust from the golden.
..yes I calculate these things in real time. So this is where I go. "Ok perhaps you're right on this one."
You can argue that "1600 guaranteed" is better than "2000 on average" since "Average" can mean you get less especially with such a low sample, but overall, it's better to play the averages as over the long term (over many expansions) you'll get that average.
So yeah, started this post out arguing against you. Ending this saying "both are ok but you're right, the 20 packs is a better deal"
You just won an debate on the internet. Have a cookie.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
Opening packs is more fun. Value wise they seem about the same.
20 packs is %100 better you get at least 2 epics probably a legendary and 400-500 dust
i play cubelock and lose 5 games in a row then i play odd paladin and get my stars back wash rinse repeat
Honestly I just view it as just an extension of the 'preorder' offer.
If you were the type that would buy the preorder then buy more packs (I know there's quite a few as I keep hearing people buying 150-200 paacks+) then this is a nobrainer as it's effectively double buying the pre-order.
If you were the type to buy the 50 pack bundle and that's it, then yeah, unless you just want Jaraxxus then the $80 offer isn't that great.
Thus "buy both or just buy the $50, unless your enemies MUST FACE JARAXXUS."
Or go free. *flutters F2P lashes*
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
a few questions
first if you buy the two bundles do you get 2 random legendaries?
and second can said legendaries be desinchanted? refering to marin
random ones can be disenchanted. It's when they give SPECifiC ones that they tend to be non-dust-able since they aren't collectable (if you found a way to get rid of Marin you'd never be able to get him back).
By how it reads two bundles = 2 golden legendaries
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
I would greatly prefer the 20 packs. Yes, if you dust them all, you have around ~2k dust on average, but now you might need to craft cards afterwards you would otherwise open (especially epics, they always seem to drain my dust the most).
Unless I opened hundreds of packs of an expansion (which I never do), I would prefer packs before golden legendaries.
Tracking my packs for the last five expansions indicates an average value of 90 to 110 dust per pack. 20 packs >1800 dust, while a golden legendary is worth 1600 dust. So based on value alone, 20 packs is the better deal. Additionally, if we're talking about a new expansion and a lot of cards you don't have but need to craft, the deal is very much in favour of the 20 packs.
Novice engineer & Hearthstone dilettante