VS is not skewed towards entire ladder. They properly have legend rank only stuff... Biggest problem of VS is not enough data. Tempostorm is skewed by tournament performances of the deck though it seems. And we all know that tournament performance isn't the same as ladder performance... And HSreplay recognition of deck archetypes is far from perfect so that is what skews their results...
VS is not skewed towards entire ladder. They properly have legend rank only stuff... Biggest problem of VS is not enough data. Tempostorm is skewed by tournament performances of the deck though it seems. And we all know that tournament performance isn't the same as ladder performance... And HSreplay recognition of deck archetypes is far from perfect so that is what skews their results...
Oh. So it's HSreplay that's more regular ladder centric? We really DO need a dataset focused on the below-legend crowd as that's pretty much 99% of the community.
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
This isn't at all worth complaining over. The meta looks different at different ranks and if you are winning with something that they list as Tier 2 or 3, then keep playing it.
Also you can look at the win rates that they list for the common matchups and see if they correspond to your own experience with that deck. That is somewhat more important because you know what archetypes you have been going up against on ladder, and getting favorable matches matters a lot more than whatever Tier they subjectively put the deck in.
FWIW, Control Warlock was a smooth ride to legend for me last season; I found it considerably more reliable than Odd Paladin, and somewhat better than Even Paladin, both of which I also tried for a while.
Another thing to consider is what they do with their tiers at tempostorm. It's not JUSt that Tier 1 > tier 2 > tier 3
IIRC, Tier 1 are the meta definers. The decks there are the ones that the meta is revolving around. You CAN have decks there that are rarely played since everyone is playing counters but even then, whatever decks the meta is playing is either Tier 1 or trying to counter Tier 1 (or at most the counter to the counter).
Tier 2 are the strong but non-defining decks. They are close to or as good as Tier 1 but they aren't responding to the meta as a secondary option or as a deck that can stay around despite the tier 1s.
Tier 3 can be, decks that are strong but can't handle the meta currently, decks that are weak but do VERY well against tier 1, sometimes flat out countering them fully (so they rock a tier 1 deck but suck elsewhere), or are memeish decks that are just usable enough to be a factor in the game.
Given that, it's very much possible for a Tier 2 or even 3 deck to be highly popular due to how they deal with tier 1 decks but aren't reliable enough against the rest of the field to be used in highly competitive play.
It might be best to think of them as looking for decks you SHOULD use and sorting them by their purpose and influence rather than the decks we ARE using.
Another thing to consider is what they do with their tiers at tempostorm. It's not JUSt that Tier 1 > tier 2 > tier 3
IIRC, Tier 1 are the meta definers. The decks there are the ones that the meta is revolving around. You CAN have decks there that are rarely played since everyone is playing counters but even then, whatever decks the meta is playing is either Tier 1 or trying to counter Tier 1 (or at most the counter to the counter).
Tier 2 are the strong but non-defining decks. They are close to or as good as Tier 1 but they aren't responding to the meta as a secondary option or as a deck that can stay around despite the tier 1s.
Tier 3 can be, decks that are strong but can't handle the meta currently, decks that are weak but do VERY well against tier 1, sometimes flat out countering them fully (so they rock a tier 1 deck but suck elsewhere), or are memeish decks that are just usable enough to be a factor in the game.
Given that, it's very much possible for a Tier 2 or even 3 deck to be highly popular due to how they deal with tier 1 decks but aren't reliable enough against the rest of the field to be used in highly competitive play.
It might be best to think of them as looking for decks you SHOULD use and sorting them by their purpose and influence rather than the decks we ARE using.
It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot.
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
I find their snapshot reflects results better than most other sources of information. HSdata and the likes take into account a shit ton of noobs playing those decks too. Not only that, every class has the ''other'' archetype which is essentially skewing the metrics a lot.
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
I find their snapshot reflects results better than most other sources of information. HSdata and the likes take into account a shit ton of noobs playing those decks too. Not only that, every class has the ''other'' archetype which is essentially skewing the metrics a lot.
Except the part where they totally miss some archetypes altogether from their “snapshot”.
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
I find their snapshot reflects results better than most other sources of information. HSdata and the likes take into account a shit ton of noobs playing those decks too. Not only that, every class has the ''other'' archetype which is essentially skewing the metrics a lot.
Except the part where they totally miss some archetypes altogether from their “snapshot”.
That's true but it doesn't matter. Most of what I'm interested in will be on there most of the time. I do check all the available sources of information. They all come in handy.
"It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot."
It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot.
If I were to guess it's probably because Baku Quest Warrior, to them, also kills aggro dead but dies to everything else, which puts to question what the difference really is between Baku and non Baku.
it has the same problems as Baku Quest warrior: bad against almost all of the tier 1 decks and about half of the tier 2. That's the hallmark of a Tier 3 deck in tempostorm's list. Which puts Baku at about the same spot as non-Baku. Which suggests that Tempostorm's big problem is that they should've just called it "Quest Warrior" and added in the description "There's a Baku variant that's also being used which is producing similar results."
Again, this is trying to analyze the data, so I welcome any corrections if I'm off anywhere.
"It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot."
It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot.
If I were to guess it's probably because Baku Quest Warrior, to them, also kills aggro dead but dies to everything else, which puts to question what the difference really is between Baku and non Baku.
it has the same problems as Baku Quest warrior: bad against almost all of the tier 1 decks and about half of the tier 2. That's the hallmark of a Tier 3 deck in tempostorm's list. Which puts Baku at about the same spot as non-Baku. Which suggests that Tempostorm's big problem is that they should've just called it "Quest Warrior" and added in the description "There's a Baku variant that's also being used which is producing similar results."
Again, this is trying to analyze the data, so I welcome any corrections if I'm off anywhere.
Now that just insults me personally too... I spent quite some time perfecting normal non-Baku quest warrior... and Baku Quest Warrior much worse against aggro compared to non-baku version... Warpath and Blood Razor are just MVP. Also it is 50/50 against most of the Tier 2 decks as opposed to Baku Quest Warrior... Usual quest warrior actually has 60% winrate against Even Paladin which is one of the better Tier 1 decks and Odd Paladin is just destroyed by it (with winrates being 70-80% at the very least, pushing 90% when skilled player is piloting the warrior)... While Baku Quest Warrior has like 40% winrate against every single Paladin Archetype, so I don't see much of "being good against aggro" in that archetype.
Now that just insults me personally too... I spent quite some time perfecting normal non-Baku quest warrior... and Baku Quest Warrior much worse against aggro compared to non-baku version... Warpath and Blood Razor are just MVP. Also it is 50/50 against most of the Tier 2 decks as opposed to Baku Quest Warrior... Usual quest warrior actually has 60% winrate against Even Paladin which is one of the better Tier 1 decks and Odd Paladin is just destroyed by it (with winrates being 70-80% at the very least, pushing 90% when skilled player is piloting the warrior)... While Baku Quest Warrior has like 40% winrate against every single Paladin Archetype, so I don't see much of "being good against aggro" in that archetype.
Apologies for that. I'm meaning to be blunt but not insulting.
Well that leaves one question then: Who has run the deck at the upper ends of legend and when? If it's recent then it might just be a case of the list not being updated for the new deck. Remember that it's not updated daily after all.
And though I assume this won't be the case I'm forced to bring it up just to cover the bases: it HAS been tested and proven at the top of ladder or in a major tournament, right? We aren't dealing with a deck that got someone INTO legend from rank 5 or folks playing at legend #20000 and beating fellow bottom levels? Tempostorm is focused on the upper end of ladder and the pro scene. Even the tier 3 decks typically hit the high end or becomes part of a lineup. If the deck hasn't been among them then it makes sense for Tempostorm to not notice as it's about as relevant to their list as a Shadowverse deck. Again just covering the bases.
Assuming it has been piloted and there's been enough time to notice and Tempo just hasn't noticed..NOW we have a real issue and a question of just where those guys have been looking that they have missed a deck, new or old, that's proven itself.
What is suspect about HSReplay’s statistical model?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Shudderwock means driving a clown car in circles around your opponent while he swings his sword at you. Half the time he chops you and your car to pieces. The other half you park on his legs and 40 clowns come out one by one, trampling him to death.
Now that just insults me personally too... I spent quite some time perfecting normal non-Baku quest warrior... and Baku Quest Warrior much worse against aggro compared to non-baku version... Warpath and Blood Razor are just MVP. Also it is 50/50 against most of the Tier 2 decks as opposed to Baku Quest Warrior... Usual quest warrior actually has 60% winrate against Even Paladin which is one of the better Tier 1 decks and Odd Paladin is just destroyed by it (with winrates being 70-80% at the very least, pushing 90% when skilled player is piloting the warrior)... While Baku Quest Warrior has like 40% winrate against every single Paladin Archetype, so I don't see much of "being good against aggro" in that archetype.
Apologies for that. I'm meaning to be blunt but not insulting.
Well that leaves one question then: Who has run the deck at the upper ends of legend and when? If it's recent then it might just be a case of the list not being updated for the new deck. Remember that it's not updated daily after all.
And though I assume this won't be the case I'm forced to bring it up just to cover the bases: it HAS been tested and proven at the top of ladder or in a major tournament, right? We aren't dealing with a deck that got someone INTO legend from rank 5 or folks playing at legend #20000 and beating fellow bottom levels? Tempostorm is focused on the upper end of ladder and the pro scene. Even the tier 3 decks typically hit the high end or becomes part of a lineup. If the deck hasn't been among them then it makes sense for Tempostorm to not notice as it's about as relevant to their list as a Shadowverse deck. Again just covering the bases.
Assuming it has been piloted and there's been enough time to notice and Tempo just hasn't noticed..NOW we have a real issue and a question of just where those guys have been looking that they have missed a deck, new or old, that's proven itself.
Well yes. The only popular streamer that ran that deck a lot was Kripparian (on the third day of expansion up to like top 2000 legend) i personally gave my list to him. Also it was part of Rdu line up in the tournament, though his list was a bit unrefined. But so far it is a sleeper deck at highest tiers of play. Lets see how summer play offs would go. The deck can be pretty good in antiaggro line up if you ban warlock...
This is why using raw stats as the basis for how strong a class is is only half right. You also have to consider where those stats are coming from. Who is winning so much with odd pally? At lower levels of play it might straight up dominate even in unfavored matchups because it has a lower skill cap, but at higher level play even the best players will struggle to win. I remember watching kolento play this deck on stream and he just got crushed. On top of that you have to account for what the meta actually is, the real world factor. You will notice a trend of tier one decks generally aimed at beating other tier one decks if you analyze what they do and how they are built. Odd paladin is not a hard deck to beat. Nobody is deckbuilding to fight Odd paladin. Even tier 3 or 4 decks might be favored against it. Stats are only half of the picture.
Well yes. The only popular streamer that ran that deck a lot was Kripparian (on the third day of expansion up to like top 2000 legend) i personally gave my list to him. Also it was part of Rdu line up in the tournament, though his list was a bit unrefined. But so far it is a sleeper deck at highest tiers of play. Lets see how summer play offs would go. The deck can be pretty good in antiaggro line up if you ban warlock...
Yeah, does sounds like a sleeper deck. I wouldn't MOCK tempostorm for missing it, but it does demonstrate an disadvantage in their style: that they are human and can miss things. And that's fine. NONE of these systems work 100%, but they do well in what they are designed to do. So long as we keep in mind their limitations and scope then all of them are useful depending on what you are looking for.
Grats on designing the deck btw. Even if it remains a sleeper, it's still impressive to have those folks take note of it.
(sidenote, finally got around to opening my packs an I didn't have a clue what I'd do for a warrior build, so hope you don't mind if I go snatch that one. Lots of aggro over in my neck of the woods at the moment.
Well yes. The only popular streamer that ran that deck a lot was Kripparian (on the third day of expansion up to like top 2000 legend) i personally gave my list to him. Also it was part of Rdu line up in the tournament, though his list was a bit unrefined. But so far it is a sleeper deck at highest tiers of play. Lets see how summer play offs would go. The deck can be pretty good in antiaggro line up if you ban warlock...
Yeah, does sounds like a sleeper deck. I wouldn't MOCK tempostorm for missing it, but it does demonstrate an disadvantage in their style: that they are human and can miss things. And that's fine. NONE of these systems work 100%, but they do well in what they are designed to do. So long as we keep in mind their limitations and scope then all of them are useful depending on what you are looking for.
Grats on designing the deck btw. Even if it remains a sleeper, it's still impressive to have those folks take note of it.
(sidenote, finally got around to opening my packs an I didn't have a clue what I'd do for a warrior build, so hope you don't mind if I go snatch that one. Lots of aggro over in my neck of the woods at the moment.
Well I was refining Quest Warrior ever since Un'Goro, so I kinda knew ahead of time what works and what doesn't in the archetype even though it was pretty much dead since nerf of Fiery War Axe. So because of this devotion yeah it took me only a few hours to make a build that kinda works, and then 2-3 more days to refine it a little bit more...
Sure grab my deck... consider tech choices though (Like especially Cornered Sentry if Taunt Druids are popular where you are)
It's because they aren't showcasing which decks will be the best for you if you're the avarage ladder guy that struggles to get to rank 10 and haven't learned all of the basics of card game yet - They're showing which decks that would be the best to play if you have mastered or near mastered them. Control Warlock is currently the best deck to climb with if you're in legend - high legend, but at the lower ranks it's winrate is way lower because most people make a lot of mistakes with the deck and don't understand it's wincoditions for all of the matchups.
The reason Paladin is really high winrate when you look at HSreplay is because it's fairly easy to play (to not say very easy) and therefore the people at lower ranks have a much easier time doing well with it. (also Odd Paladin is imferior to Even Paladin in almost every way so I don't really know why people would play it) :P
It's because they aren't showcasing which decks will be the best for you if you're the avarage ladder guy that struggles to get to rank 10 and haven't learned all of the basics of card game yet - They're showing which decks that would be the best to play if you have mastered or near mastered them. Control Warlock is currently the best deck to climb with if you're in legend - high legend, but at the lower ranks it's winrate is way lower because most people make a lot of mistakes with the deck and don't understand it's wincoditions for all of the matchups.
The reason Paladin is really high winrate when you look at HSreplay is because it's fairly easy to play (to not say very easy) and therefore the people at lower ranks have a much easier time doing well with it. (also Odd Paladin is imferior to Even Paladin in almost every way so I don't really know why people would play it) :P
Why is really easy, you are mostly f2p, pulled Baku from pack and don't really have all that many rogue cards but kinda ok on Paladin cards and you just don't have enough dust for Genn... (Odd Warrior is also viable, but it is not especially good and is a Control deck which is hard to play correctly)
Though I personally just made myself a Murloc Paladin deck...
VS is not skewed towards entire ladder. They properly have legend rank only stuff... Biggest problem of VS is not enough data. Tempostorm is skewed by tournament performances of the deck though it seems. And we all know that tournament performance isn't the same as ladder performance... And HSreplay recognition of deck archetypes is far from perfect so that is what skews their results...
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
LOL Tempostorm...
But seriously they have a few players that run their site that pick the tier list based one what THEY believe are the best decks. Not by actual you know FACTS. That's why their list is SO bad.
This isn't at all worth complaining over. The meta looks different at different ranks and if you are winning with something that they list as Tier 2 or 3, then keep playing it.
Also you can look at the win rates that they list for the common matchups and see if they correspond to your own experience with that deck. That is somewhat more important because you know what archetypes you have been going up against on ladder, and getting favorable matches matters a lot more than whatever Tier they subjectively put the deck in.
FWIW, Control Warlock was a smooth ride to legend for me last season; I found it considerably more reliable than Odd Paladin, and somewhat better than Even Paladin, both of which I also tried for a while.
Another thing to consider is what they do with their tiers at tempostorm. It's not JUSt that Tier 1 > tier 2 > tier 3
IIRC, Tier 1 are the meta definers. The decks there are the ones that the meta is revolving around. You CAN have decks there that are rarely played since everyone is playing counters but even then, whatever decks the meta is playing is either Tier 1 or trying to counter Tier 1 (or at most the counter to the counter).
Tier 2 are the strong but non-defining decks. They are close to or as good as Tier 1 but they aren't responding to the meta as a secondary option or as a deck that can stay around despite the tier 1s.
Tier 3 can be, decks that are strong but can't handle the meta currently, decks that are weak but do VERY well against tier 1, sometimes flat out countering them fully (so they rock a tier 1 deck but suck elsewhere), or are memeish decks that are just usable enough to be a factor in the game.
Given that, it's very much possible for a Tier 2 or even 3 deck to be highly popular due to how they deal with tier 1 decks but aren't reliable enough against the rest of the field to be used in highly competitive play.
It might be best to think of them as looking for decks you SHOULD use and sorting them by their purpose and influence rather than the decks we ARE using.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
"It is just that whatever they do is not backed up by actual state of meta, while both hsreplay and vicious syndicate agree that best warrior deck is quest warrior without Baku (it obliterates most Paladin and other Aggro decks but bad against cubes and subpar against Spiteful Summoner) Tempostorm doesn’t even have it in their meta snapshot."
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
What is suspect about HSReplay’s statistical model?
Shudderwock means driving a clown car in circles around your opponent while he swings his sword at you. Half the time he chops you and your car to pieces. The other half you park on his legs and 40 clowns come out one by one, trampling him to death.
Whizbang Strategy Reference -- update complete for Rastakhan's Rumble!
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
This is why using raw stats as the basis for how strong a class is is only half right. You also have to consider where those stats are coming from. Who is winning so much with odd pally? At lower levels of play it might straight up dominate even in unfavored matchups because it has a lower skill cap, but at higher level play even the best players will struggle to win. I remember watching kolento play this deck on stream and he just got crushed. On top of that you have to account for what the meta actually is, the real world factor. You will notice a trend of tier one decks generally aimed at beating other tier one decks if you analyze what they do and how they are built. Odd paladin is not a hard deck to beat. Nobody is deckbuilding to fight Odd paladin. Even tier 3 or 4 decks might be favored against it. Stats are only half of the picture.
Yeah, does sounds like a sleeper deck. I wouldn't MOCK tempostorm for missing it, but it does demonstrate an disadvantage in their style: that they are human and can miss things. And that's fine. NONE of these systems work 100%, but they do well in what they are designed to do. So long as we keep in mind their limitations and scope then all of them are useful depending on what you are looking for.
Grats on designing the deck btw. Even if it remains a sleeper, it's still impressive to have those folks take note of it.
(sidenote, finally got around to opening my packs an I didn't have a clue what I'd do for a warrior build, so hope you don't mind if I go snatch that one. Lots of aggro over in my neck of the woods at the moment.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius
It's because they aren't showcasing which decks will be the best for you if you're the avarage ladder guy that struggles to get to rank 10 and haven't learned all of the basics of card game yet - They're showing which decks that would be the best to play if you have mastered or near mastered them.
Control Warlock is currently the best deck to climb with if you're in legend - high legend, but at the lower ranks it's winrate is way lower because most people make a lot of mistakes with the deck and don't understand it's wincoditions for all of the matchups.
The reason Paladin is really high winrate when you look at HSreplay is because it's fairly easy to play (to not say very easy) and therefore the people at lower ranks have a much easier time doing well with it. (also Odd Paladin is imferior to Even Paladin in almost every way so I don't really know why people would play it) :P
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist. ©Trimutius