I like to play Big Spell Mage. Around rank 15-5 I have a fine winrate with it, around 55-60%.
However, now that the season has reset I'm struggling really hard with it. I started at rank 15, and now I'm at rank 19 after a win rate of about 5-10%.
How does matchmaking work at lower ranks? Does it put you against better players regardless your rank or something?
Sure, I could play something else (which I probably will) but I wonder how the hell one deck can have like 50% less win rate at lower ranks?
Ranked gives you an opponent with about the same amount of rank/stars as you have.
Sometimes you will have bad streaks. Get away from the game and clear your head. Sometimes the meta just changed and you need a deck switch to counter it. Sometimes you simply play bad as well. There are many reasons why you can lose. But Hearthstone is a game of many games. It will get better again.
I noticed that matchmaking changed. Last year it was about rank and experience, now the script is including deck pattern and trys to find an opponent based on following terms:
- Rank (shold be around the same rank as you) - Experience (number of wins in ranked) - NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
Before this it was easy to switch a deck if you faced a lot of the same time, or just build in a tech for it, now this does not help but - for me - it ruins a large part of the experience.
Just out of experience: Until you dont hit rank 15 try something simple for the ladder like Midrange Hunter or Zoolock. You have under rank 15 so many various sh*it flying around that with skillful decks you will hit rank 15 just really hard. After rank 15 the meta is more clear and skill decks like the Big Spell Mage can be used.
Fortunately, the matchmaking system is not biased.
Unfortunately, either 1. you are playing bad 2. the meta has changed or, 3. you are getting mostly unfavourable matchups (or indeed, a combination of 1-3)
- NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
So you basically think, that the game is rigged that players (your opponents) are matched to have to play against a decks they can win against????
- NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
Before this it was easy to switch a deck if you faced a lot of the same time, or just build in a tech for it, now this does not help but - for me - it ruins a large part of the experience. (...)
Okay, so this new rule is always against YOU personally, but your opponents are the ones with the high win chance against YOU?
- Rank (shold be around the same rank as you) - Experience (number of wins in ranked) - NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
They have stated that they try to match newer players against each other, but other than that the third on your list is certainly not the case. How do I know? Easy. If you visit HSReplay's Meta Matchups tab, you can mouse over each archetype matchup in their entire database and see both popularity percentages and raw numbers of times those matchups have occurred in their entire data set.
I'll cut to the chase so you don't have to: The percentage matchups for each archetype closely track the popularity of each opponent archetype. Or, to put it another way, they are not manipulating your opponents based on what is in your deck.
It's unlikely there's a more comprehensive data set out there for looking at these numbers. Fortunately, HSReplay.net has put it all out there for anyone to see who cares enough to look.
- NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
Before this it was easy to switch a deck if you faced a lot of the same time, or just build in a tech for it, now this does not help but - for me - it ruins a large part of the experience.
This is just some unproven confirmation bias bullshit. If you switch decks, you start a new game and get a new opponent with a new deck. That's all. So stop spreading misinformation or go and prove your claim with numbers.
- NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
You understand this statement makes no sense whatsoever right
I see the changed pattern, so try to find a scenario what can prove the shift from the status 'before' to 'now'. If it gives me a plausible explanation i take it . Im not 110% sure that im right here, but based on my findings i wold say that can be a good explanation why the matchmaking feels different since the changes to the laddering system.
Meaning should be: It seems that the matchmaking is nor trying to understand what deck you play and includes this in the matchmaking itself. It gives you an opponent how plays a deck what is strong against your type of deck so you have a challenge if you play against it.
Makes that any sense to you or still not writing it correct down?
We understand completely what you're saying, but it's just not correct.
This post I made a few minutes ago points to a public data set that makes absolutely clear that across thousands of players the matchmaking is random with respect to what is in your deck.
Im not saying that i cannot win, i have no problem with my rank between 10-15 at the end of the month with the playtime i give to the game. :)
If anybody thinks im not right with my theory, it is your own free will to do that, but again i find it not right if we finger point back on personal level and not discuss it. But do as you want, if needed the system will one day match us again each other so karma can take retribution!
PS: As fast as all of you all writing replays I have no chance in the middle of the work to follow up all the comments, sorry.
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I like to play Big Spell Mage. Around rank 15-5 I have a fine winrate with it, around 55-60%.
However, now that the season has reset I'm struggling really hard with it. I started at rank 15, and now I'm at rank 19 after a win rate of about 5-10%.
How does matchmaking work at lower ranks? Does it put you against better players regardless your rank or something?
Sure, I could play something else (which I probably will) but I wonder how the hell one deck can have like 50% less win rate at lower ranks?
How can you drop from rank 15? There is safely rank so you cant drop from 15
Ranked gives you an opponent with about the same amount of rank/stars as you have.
Sometimes you will have bad streaks. Get away from the game and clear your head. Sometimes the meta just changed and you need a deck switch to counter it. Sometimes you simply play bad as well. There are many reasons why you can lose. But Hearthstone is a game of many games. It will get better again.
I noticed that matchmaking changed. Last year it was about rank and experience, now the script is including deck pattern and trys to find an opponent based on following terms:
- Rank (shold be around the same rank as you)
- Experience (number of wins in ranked)
- NEW: Deck type (dont know how it works, but if you switch decks you will see that also your opponents change, and will pilot a deck that has a high chance to defeat you)
Before this it was easy to switch a deck if you faced a lot of the same time, or just build in a tech for it, now this does not help but - for me - it ruins a large part of the experience.
Just out of experience: Until you dont hit rank 15 try something simple for the ladder like Midrange Hunter or Zoolock. You have under rank 15 so many various sh*it flying around that with skillful decks you will hit rank 15 just really hard. After rank 15 the meta is more clear and skill decks like the Big Spell Mage can be used.
Just a bad matchup streak...
How can you explain how an algorithm works if you do not have access to the back-end of the game?
Fortunately, the matchmaking system is not biased.
Unfortunately, either 1. you are playing bad 2. the meta has changed or, 3. you are getting mostly unfavourable matchups (or indeed, a combination of 1-3)
--Alfi--
Sounds reasonable :D
They have stated that they try to match newer players against each other, but other than that the third on your list is certainly not the case. How do I know? Easy. If you visit HSReplay's Meta Matchups tab, you can mouse over each archetype matchup in their entire database and see both popularity percentages and raw numbers of times those matchups have occurred in their entire data set.
I'll cut to the chase so you don't have to: The percentage matchups for each archetype closely track the popularity of each opponent archetype. Or, to put it another way, they are not manipulating your opponents based on what is in your deck.
It's unlikely there's a more comprehensive data set out there for looking at these numbers. Fortunately, HSReplay.net has put it all out there for anyone to see who cares enough to look.
Based on following:
I know
- status before
- status now
I see the changed pattern, so try to find a scenario what can prove the shift from the status 'before' to 'now'. If it gives me a plausible explanation i take it . Im not 110% sure that im right here, but based on my findings i wold say that can be a good explanation why the matchmaking feels different since the changes to the laddering system.
In my post above, I offered you a source of a huge amount of publicly available data that says you're not right about this. Have you looked at it yet?
Im not native English, so it can be. :)
Meaning should be: It seems that the matchmaking is nor trying to understand what deck you play and includes this in the matchmaking itself. It gives you an opponent how plays a deck what is strong against your type of deck so you have a challenge if you play against it.
Makes that any sense to you or still not writing it correct down?
We understand completely what you're saying, but it's just not correct.
This post I made a few minutes ago points to a public data set that makes absolutely clear that across thousands of players the matchmaking is random with respect to what is in your deck.
Im not saying that i cannot win, i have no problem with my rank between 10-15 at the end of the month with the playtime i give to the game. :)
If anybody thinks im not right with my theory, it is your own free will to do that, but again i find it not right if we finger point back on personal level and not discuss it. But do as you want, if needed the system will one day match us again each other so karma can take retribution!
PS: As fast as all of you all writing replays I have no chance in the middle of the work to follow up all the comments, sorry.