I visited the site this morning, and noticed that another "Blizzard rigs the game - and I have proof" thread had gained traction in the forums - dozens of responses, and the OP received dozens of "Likes" for his contribution to the ongoing drama. Also like every other "Blizzard rigs the game - and I have proof" thread, the OP didn't think it quite important enough to post any of the data he used to support his claims - despite explaining that he had "over fifteen years experience in the statistics trade," and should have known better. A professional statistician should also understand that intention can't be deduced from the data - even if everything the OP had said were true, the existence of bias wouldn't be evidence of "Blizzard rigs the game." A statistician with fifteen years of experience would understand that the OP's trials had done nothing to identify the source of purported bias - a glitch in the match-making process, for example - and the claim of "proving" that Blizzard is cheating everyone seems needlessly declamatory (as well as incorrect.)
In any event, the gentleman claimed to have played nearly two hundred games, spread out in seven "trials" separated by three hours each - his "tech-ed" deck queued into Cubelock about fifteen times less often than his regular deck, which lacked the "tech." Conclusion = Blizzard rigs the game.
Rather than linking to his HSDecktracker page, and providing the community with the data he used in his purported trials, he claimed that it was better for "everyone else" to perform the same, fifteen hour series of trials, and decide for themselves. Apparently, this non-response is acceptable to folks who already "know" that the game is rigged.
HSDecktracker has been available for a couple years, and dozens (probably hundreds, by this point) of people have claimed to have "proved" that Blizzard rigs the game, but no one that I'm aware of has bothered to post a link to their data so that the community can "decide for themselves."
Challenge = do the work, and post the links. Everything is time-stamped, so nefarious attempts to "cheat the system" by deleting recalcitrant results will be easily detected by the community.
After that, the "riggers" will have a case for discussion, provided they find evidence of bias - a discussion of sources of bias would be helpful to the community, and might cause a response from Blizzard. Endlessly posting "proof without proof" is only helpful to folks who really aren't interested in the issue, but instead enjoy the shot of adrenaline which apparently accompanies anonymously shit-posting about the game.
You know, instead of spending all that time writing this diatribe to the contrary, why didnt you just go and do what you challenged others to do instead?
Rub the test and play the games and report back your data sonothers can make up their mind.
Or were you too lazy to do the actual scientific method yourself and just wanted to rant about an opinion you disagree with?
Everyone takes the minimum numbers required to confirm (in their own minds) their credo.
Luckily, the phenomenon has no real repercussions in the game.
PS: the work of a real scientist is valuable because it can be used by other scientists as well, and it can generate knowledge. Scientists DO NOT STOP at small experiments, asking everyone else to confirm their own realities all the time... That is in fact what a Priest does.
PPS: who makes a claim must also prove it. Any new claim is false until proved, not the other way around...
Regarding whether matchmaking is biased toward certain match-ups based on a player's selected archetype:
It dawned on me just down that hsreplay.net displays raw counts of recorded games for each archetype matchup in their database. (Go to the Meta tab, click on Matchups, and mouse over each win percentage.) Their total sample size is millions of games in the past 7 days, and some of the more common matchups have 60-70 thousand games recorded.
Just inspecting the numbers casually, there doesn't seem to be any indication that certain archetypes are particularly over- or under-represented in matches for other archetypes. So, it doesn't appear that they're doing the kind of thing I was hypothesizing about.
If someone wants to collect those numbers and do a more rigorous analysis, I'd be interested to read it, but I didn't see much interesting to convince me that it would be worth doing so myself.
Regarding whether matchmaking is biased toward certain match-ups based on a player's selected archetype:
It dawned on me just down that hsreplay.net displays raw counts of recorded games for each archetype matchup in their database. (Go to the Meta tab, click on Matchups, and mouse over each win percentage.) Their total sample size is millions of games in the past 7 days, and some of the more common matchups have 60-70 thousand games recorded.
Just inspecting the numbers casually, there doesn't seem to be any indication that certain archetypes are particularly over- or under-represented in matches for other archetypes. So, it doesn't appear that they're doing the kind of thing I was hypothesizing about.
If someone wants to collect those numbers and do a more rigorous analysis, I'd be interested to read it, but I didn't see much interesting to convince me that it would be worth doing so myself
Yeh, people come on forums saying they've "tested" something with 150 games and implore others to do so also in an uncontrolled manner. HS replay has stats for a deck for example with over 330'000 games played and you see full class representations across the board matching current the current meta. yet they'll claim there's some form of rigging going on.......
Why did you open a thread to bash another thread? The reason why Op opened that thread was to the discuss his so called findings.
Also I didn't believe him I didn't even inspect his finding because I know that a gamer or even deck trackers cannot collect necessary data to prove that the matchmaking is rigged. FOR FUCK SAKE NOBODY thinks about it.
1. You need to know how many players are searching opponent at the specific moment.
2. You need to know decks of the player who are searching for opponent at the specific moment.
3. You need to know their matching results
Those are the data you need to prove that. Not some random data from single observatory point.
There is other way to if the replay feature comes which shows when the game started and some site collects all of that replay data with time stamp than you can provide that game is rigged with statistics.
I visited the site this morning, and noticed that another "Blizzard rigs the game - and I have proof" thread had gained traction in the forums - dozens of responses, and the OP received dozens of "Likes" for his contribution to the ongoing drama. Also like every other "Blizzard rigs the game - and I have proof" thread, the OP didn't think it quite important enough to post any of the data he used to support his claims - despite explaining that he had "over fifteen years experience in the statistics trade," and should have known better. A professional statistician should also understand that intention can't be deduced from the data - even if everything the OP had said were true, the existence of bias wouldn't be evidence of "Blizzard rigs the game." A statistician with fifteen years of experience would understand that the OP's trials had done nothing to identify the source of purported bias - a glitch in the match-making process, for example - and the claim of "proving" that Blizzard is cheating everyone seems needlessly declamatory (as well as incorrect.)
In any event, the gentleman claimed to have played nearly two hundred games, spread out in seven "trials" separated by three hours each - his "tech-ed" deck queued into Cubelock about fifteen times less often than his regular deck, which lacked the "tech." Conclusion = Blizzard rigs the game.
Rather than linking to his HSDecktracker page, and providing the community with the data he used in his purported trials, he claimed that it was better for "everyone else" to perform the same, fifteen hour series of trials, and decide for themselves. Apparently, this non-response is acceptable to folks who already "know" that the game is rigged.
HSDecktracker has been available for a couple years, and dozens (probably hundreds, by this point) of people have claimed to have "proved" that Blizzard rigs the game, but no one that I'm aware of has bothered to post a link to their data so that the community can "decide for themselves."
Challenge = do the work, and post the links. Everything is time-stamped, so nefarious attempts to "cheat the system" by deleting recalcitrant results will be easily detected by the community.
After that, the "riggers" will have a case for discussion, provided they find evidence of bias - a discussion of sources of bias would be helpful to the community, and might elicit a response from Blizzard. Endlessly posting "proof without proof" is only helpful to folks who really aren't interested in the issue, but instead enjoy the shot of adrenaline which apparently accompanies anonymously shit-posting about the game.
HS isn't rigged so this I agree with. Still don't get why people say the game is rigged...
It's a matter of faith.
Everyone takes the minimum numbers required to confirm (in their own minds) their credo.
Luckily, the phenomenon has no real repercussions in the game.
PS: the work of a real scientist is valuable because it can be used by other scientists as well, and it can generate knowledge. Scientists DO NOT STOP at small experiments, asking everyone else to confirm their own realities all the time... That is in fact what a Priest does.
PPS: who makes a claim must also prove it. Any new claim is false until proved, not the other way around...
Regarding whether matchmaking is biased toward certain match-ups based on a player's selected archetype:
It dawned on me just down that hsreplay.net displays raw counts of recorded games for each archetype matchup in their database. (Go to the Meta tab, click on Matchups, and mouse over each win percentage.) Their total sample size is millions of games in the past 7 days, and some of the more common matchups have 60-70 thousand games recorded.
Just inspecting the numbers casually, there doesn't seem to be any indication that certain archetypes are particularly over- or under-represented in matches for other archetypes. So, it doesn't appear that they're doing the kind of thing I was hypothesizing about.
If someone wants to collect those numbers and do a more rigorous analysis, I'd be interested to read it, but I didn't see much interesting to convince me that it would be worth doing so myself.
Yeh, people come on forums saying they've "tested" something with 150 games and implore others to do so also in an uncontrolled manner. HS replay has stats for a deck for example with over 330'000 games played and you see full class representations across the board matching current the current meta. yet they'll claim there's some form of rigging going on.......
Why did you open a thread to bash another thread? The reason why Op opened that thread was to the discuss his so called findings.
Also I didn't believe him I didn't even inspect his finding because I know that a gamer or even deck trackers cannot collect necessary data to prove that the matchmaking is rigged. FOR FUCK SAKE NOBODY thinks about it.
1. You need to know how many players are searching opponent at the specific moment.
2. You need to know decks of the player who are searching for opponent at the specific moment.
3. You need to know their matching results
Those are the data you need to prove that. Not some random data from single observatory point.
There is other way to if the replay feature comes which shows when the game started and some site collects all of that replay data with time stamp than you can provide that game is rigged with statistics.