most likely what they are doing is that the chance to open a legendary increases with each pack opened beyond some point(most likely after the 20th pack as statistically you will get 1 legendary every 20 packs - that is a fact and that is the average), and it keeps rising but never hitting 100%
there were cases were people opened 41, 42, 43 packs without a legendary but eventually the chance goes to something like 99.9999999% so you will get that legendary
I use this tool to track my pity timers https://pitytracker.com/ (and compare my luck with the average player)
If you play on your computer and smartphone, it's better than HDT plugin because you can add the packs you open in any device. But you need to add them manually, so if you only play on your computer, HDT plugin could be a better option.
Um guys. . why are we glossing over this? Unless I'm missing something, this is someone breaking the timer at 43 and showing proof that Blizzard is both confirming that they broke 40 AND that it's not a bug that this was done.
Given that the entire concept of the Pity Timer was that it was 100% impossible to break past 40.. that sort of ..well
CAN WE GET SOME DISCUSSION ON THIS THING!?
edit: well at least reddit had done so. I haven't seen any here :P
For now Reddit seems to be sticking to the concept of the pity timer as most everyone seems to be still hitting below the timer (with the regular "I only got one in 70 packs...oh wait I didn't notice the other one" type posts).
Now that I think about it, we HAVE had customer support staff flat out deny the timer, even when right afterwards blizzard compensated for missed legendaries. The belief seems to stand that customer support may not know what they're talking about. THe blizzard response from higher ups has always been silence: neither confirming or denying it.
My tin foil hat reasoning has been that the timer exists but they don't want to confirm it so that they can have the ability to change/remove/enhance it at will without the pubic slaughtering them. I mean we would rage but it'll always be watered down with "well, they never officailly said it" or "see? it never did exist at all!"
Which DOES lead to a dark theory that they MIGHT'VE done a change during Rumble, as they seem to have picked up a new way of doing things lately. If they have its subtle as most seem to be flaling under the timer. you COULD argue that they kept the increasing chance but softened it just a bit so that hitting above 40 is possible but extremely rare. Since everyone is counting by 40s we wouldn't notice if..say... the average went from 20 per legendary to 22 nad wouldn't pay attention if the rare 43 happened.
Note that the above is conspiracy theory so take it for the rumblings of a madman.
But it might be good to go track your packs next expansion, just to be sure. I know I will. A LOT of my pack openings are based around that timer.
For what it's worth, I have tracked my own pack openings for more than two years now, and across nearly 1700 packs, there was not one instance where I had to open more than 40 packs in a given set without getting a legendary, but 3 instances where I got one after exactly 40 packs.
As for epics, I have yet to experience a case where I could not get one within 10 packs. Again, there were a few cases where one showed up after exactly 10.
If that's not enough, there are published pack opening statistics for thousands of packs, all telling you the same. Whether a pity timer exists or not, you would have to be extremely unlucky to see yourself opening more than 40 packs in one set without a legendary in it.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
there is no pity timer per se as some suggested
most likely what they are doing is that the chance to open a legendary increases with each pack opened beyond some point(most likely after the 20th pack as statistically you will get 1 legendary every 20 packs - that is a fact and that is the average), and it keeps rising but never hitting 100%
there were cases were people opened 41, 42, 43 packs without a legendary but eventually the chance goes to something like 99.9999999% so you will get that legendary
I use this tool to track my pity timers https://pitytracker.com/ (and compare my luck with the average player)
If you play on your computer and smartphone, it's better than HDT plugin because you can add the packs you open in any device. But you need to add them manually, so if you only play on your computer, HDT plugin could be a better option.
and how do i activate it?
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
This might be a stupid question but if I opened a pack and got 2 legendaries in that one pack will the pity timer double?
Well according to how we thought the timer worked, no, it just resets to 40.
But umm..
Um guys. . why are we glossing over this? Unless I'm missing something, this is someone breaking the timer at 43 and showing proof that Blizzard is both confirming that they broke 40 AND that it's not a bug that this was done.
Given that the entire concept of the Pity Timer was that it was 100% impossible to break past 40.. that sort of ..well
CAN WE GET SOME DISCUSSION ON THIS THING!?
edit: well at least reddit had done so. I haven't seen any here :P
For now Reddit seems to be sticking to the concept of the pity timer as most everyone seems to be still hitting below the timer (with the regular "I only got one in 70 packs...oh wait I didn't notice the other one" type posts).
Now that I think about it, we HAVE had customer support staff flat out deny the timer, even when right afterwards blizzard compensated for missed legendaries. The belief seems to stand that customer support may not know what they're talking about. THe blizzard response from higher ups has always been silence: neither confirming or denying it.
My tin foil hat reasoning has been that the timer exists but they don't want to confirm it so that they can have the ability to change/remove/enhance it at will without the pubic slaughtering them. I mean we would rage but it'll always be watered down with "well, they never officailly said it" or "see? it never did exist at all!"
Which DOES lead to a dark theory that they MIGHT'VE done a change during Rumble, as they seem to have picked up a new way of doing things lately. If they have its subtle as most seem to be flaling under the timer. you COULD argue that they kept the increasing chance but softened it just a bit so that hitting above 40 is possible but extremely rare. Since everyone is counting by 40s we wouldn't notice if..say... the average went from 20 per legendary to 22 nad wouldn't pay attention if the rare 43 happened.
Note that the above is conspiracy theory so take it for the rumblings of a madman.
But it might be good to go track your packs next expansion, just to be sure. I know I will. A LOT of my pack openings are based around that timer.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
You can't see it.
It just does.
For what it's worth, I have tracked my own pack openings for more than two years now, and across nearly 1700 packs, there was not one instance where I had to open more than 40 packs in a given set without getting a legendary, but 3 instances where I got one after exactly 40 packs.
As for epics, I have yet to experience a case where I could not get one within 10 packs. Again, there were a few cases where one showed up after exactly 10.
If that's not enough, there are published pack opening statistics for thousands of packs, all telling you the same. Whether a pity timer exists or not, you would have to be extremely unlucky to see yourself opening more than 40 packs in one set without a legendary in it.