Hearthpwn

Ok, I wanted to get ranks. Played against mage. Fuck that person who made this crap Yogg spell. I lost to this garbage 2 times in a row. Not only I will not try to get ranks anymore, but also I think about leaving this game. I do not want to play coin flip shit. Also, fuck warrior, again.

After a huge win streak i got even bigger lose streak. Every class against me had ALL needed cards and answers in their first 10 card, 3 paladins in a row with exactly the same muligan and perfect tempo. I don't think it was random, it seems like a game script, if u win a lot - just lose even more.

Quote from SchrodingersCat >>

Has someone out there done an analysis on Hearthstones matchmaking system? 

I ask simply because in my opinion it's clearly designed in a certain way. For example, If I win a match I'm almost guaranteed to lose the next match. If by some chance I win two matches in a row I am usually paired against a tier 1 deck which is on curve. This has now happened so many times that it cannot simply be by chance. Also from reading comments on this thread I am clearly not alone.

My next observation follows on from this. If I design a really random deck it appears that the the matchmaking system really struggles to match me against decks. What happens is that I end up playing against all manner of decks which is actually pretty interesting and I usually progress quite well. However, if I choose for example, quest shaman (similar to the template in deck creation) I get a lot of unfavourable matchups against hunters, rogues and warriors and my progression is halted. When I create quest warlock, I almost always get unfavourable matchups against mages and warriors. 

A lot of decks here get posted with the 'I reached legend with this deck'. Now from my points above I believe that this is because these people play these decks before they become popularised. This in turn means that the matchmaking system has insufficient data to 'matchmake' that deck to balance it out at a specific win rate. Once these decks inevitably get played to death by the net decking community the system has the data it needs to balance out its matchmaking. That is why most people see their progression slow down with most of these decks.

I wrote this here because to many people it will sound like a salty rant (usually the same people who think Donald Trump is doing a great job as president). But I am honestly interested in the statistical nature of it because from my small sample the matchmaking is not random. It follows a very specific pattern. 

 

 It's weird to me that you start with "has anyone done an analysis?" as if you're interested in actually addressing the facts, but you end with "something something Trump-in-negative-context something but I'm honestly interested in the facts". 

To answer your question, no, no one has done the work it requires to actually definitely reject the null hypothesis.

About six months into playing the game, I got tired of the second and third round of "game is rigged" posts and started collecting all the relevant info one would need to study the issue.  Fast forward to current day and I have around 30,000 games of data, and if that was 30k games over the course of one day, it would actually be enough to take a shot at some conclusions.  But since it's collected over 5 years and ranges across 200 different metas, it's not worth a lot to good statistics.

Having said that, it is (arguably) relevant to note that 100 percent of the time someone has posted collected data, it has pointed toward a solidly random dispersion in terms of class and deck type matchmaking.  Now please don't misquote me, I already admitted that none of the sets of data have been sufficient to make a statement one way or the other, but what little evidence that has been put forth does NOT point towards a "rigged" system.

I have posted that fact many times on these forums, and every time there have been people (almost always including Evil_B) rushing to type how worthless the data is.  I already said that.  However, one would think that IF it was a "rigged" (meaning non-random) system, at least once someone would have had a partial data set that made it look that way.

At the very least, we can reject out of hand the "every time I do X, immediately Y happens" ridiculousness.  Again, not a strong conclusion, but then again, I'm not making the ridiculous statements in the first place; I'm just pointing out they are provably false.

Some folks seem to forget that the matchmaking system is VERY "rigged" (meaning non-random) with regard to relative MMR of opponents.  You will very deliberately be matched with higher performing players as you perform better yourself; an effect which has a natural depressing effect on win rates as a result of winning.

As a final note, yes, I understand the inherent issues with the concept of "random" in a digital environment.  Inevitably someone will point out those issues, despite the fact that the issues don't concern this conversation in any way.  We can get close enough to true random that it would be VERY easy to distinguish a legitimate attempt at random from a deliberately rigged system.

FUCK YOU capricornbs for playing Big Priest in casual!!!! FUCK. YOU!

Ty for complaining about barnes. I will take my 1600 dust and move on.
Also fuck Zephyrus or whatever the name is.  I just love going vs savage roar and unleash the hounds in a same deck.

As much as I think Zephrys is well designed card in theory. The amount of times it has screwed me over is unreal. Full board and they need a spell? Here is twisting nether. You have 10hp left here you go here’s pyroblast. Oh you have divine shield minions here’s blood Knight. It’s options are way to perfect an answer to whats being played. Clutch card that always gives you the right answer

edit. Same card gave a mage shadow word pain to kill my taunt that summons him a minion. It’s antidous or however you spell it. Honestly it’s to perfect 

Seriously how do highlander decks always have every answer? Always have reno on 6. Always have Kazakus. Always have everything. Super frustrating to play against someone that’s supposed to be at a disadvantage and yet only playing 1 copy doesn’t seem to matter at all.....they will have it,

Getting 7x Grandmummy cards and 4x Wild Bloodstinger cards is real cool and all, but I'd like to at least get a SINGLE Questing Explorer from a pack without having to craft a rare card.

The Trump comment was an example to demonstrate a point. For example, the entire world is laughing at the US and what the Trump presidency is doing to the US. But some Americans truly believe that he is doing a great job, maybe the best job ever. They are not living in objective reality and not willing to listen to facts.

Sooooo Boom at 9 changes nothing not Barnes at 5. Well it gave me 1600 dusts for Boom, thanks.

I've decided to play only murloc pally, since it's full on Rng, let's play the one that just needs to Mulligan for one card. No brain needed (perfect for me :)) and can do something else meanwhile. Let's go rank 5 get the 400 dust and wait for the new expac/needs for a well deserved 24 hours of excitement.

I'm actually just mad at myself for still believing that anything will change I guess.

Playing arena against priest guest what 4 fkn entombs in a single game 4 FKN ENTOMBS FUCK YOU BLIZZARD.

Soooo when did Wild Ladder become the resting place of every anti aggro deck below rank 20? All I want to do is get my five wins and call it a day. Not waste my whole fucking Sunday scraping out wins. There's supposed to be a natural balance to things. Lower levels play aggro while upper levels is where you get cute with your deck choices.

Sometimes I hate the HS player base. 

Mild salt post

I was messing around with an alt account and I just played against a lvl 49 player playing a non-starter Quest Druid. He had Zephrys, King Phaoris, Flobbidinous Floop, Cenarius and Loti (though he might have discovered the Druid legendaries from the Choose One pool). I survived fairly long, but how is my budget Quest Shaman supposed to beat that??

I added him and asked him if he had to disenchant all his cards to craft the deck, and he said he didn't speak English well enough. Then I asked him how he got so many legendaries so fast and he un-added me lmao

 Edit: He might have used Whizbang, but I doubt it

I survived fairly long, but how is my budget Quest Shaman supposed to beat that?? What do u mean?

Experienced player trying to boost self esteem by stomping inexperienced players at rank 50 meets someone doing the same thing, cries about it. 

Jesus it’s begins again. Only losing to highlander decks and they always have kazakus on 4 and Reno on 6. I play a highlander deck and Reno is ALWAYS in last 10 despite a hard mulligan for it. It’s not confirmation bias when you have data to back it up. 

So I queue with a highlander deck and I’m matched against a mechathun warlock? Seriously the matchmaking is against me. I guess all the streamers get the good rng so they can advertise how fun the game is at the start of the month.

Quote from rogerdodger >>

Jesus it’s begins again. Only losing to highlander decks and they always have kazakus on 4 and Reno on 6. I play a highlander deck and Reno is ALWAYS in last 10 despite a hard mulligan for it. It’s not confirmation bias when you have data to back it up. 

 

 don't worry bro, I got Legend with Raza Priest last month and around 60% of my games Anduin was bottom 5 lol, I believe you

Reminder that if you play lackey shit in casual mode you get the ROPE

"But clawz161i play face collector in my lackey shit deck, you shouldn't rope meeeT_T"

 Sorry Billy but rope is equal opportunity for all players

Can't get enough of murloc paladins and quest paladins. So fun fighting endless value decks, yaaaaay!